Tuesday, April 27, 2021

Markets churn while investors wait for the Fed statement tomorrow

Dow inched up 3, advancers & decliners about even & NAZ lost 48.  The MLP index fluctuated in the 175s & the REIT index stayed near the 428s.  Junk bond funds continued mixed & Treasuries were heavily sold, bringing higher yields.  Oil rose 1+ to the 63s & gold slid back 3 to 1776 (more on both below).

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Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Americans broadly back the big-ticket spending proposals that have defined Pres Biden's first 100 days in office, a variety of recent polls show.  Surveys show many more Americans approve than disapprove of the $1.9T coronavirus relief bill Biden signed into law in Mar — by far his most significant legislative victory to date.  Polls also show Biden's $2T infrastructure plan is already popular with majorities or pluralities of respondents.  As he turns the page on his first 100 days tomorrow, Biden is gearing up to unveil yet another massive spending package, this one aimed at addressing family-related issues.  The White House has shared few details about that plan — but at least one poll shows a sizable majority of Americans already support it.  Since taking over from former Pres Trump in the midst of the pandemic, Biden has vowed to pursue swift & ambitious actions to lift the US out of the health crisis & overhaul the damaged economy.  Despite Rep efforts to brand the spending proposals as debt-ballooning boondoggles &d harmful tax hikes, Biden's bid so far appears to be paying off.  His overall approval rating is above water at 53%, buoyed by Americans' support for his handling of Covid & the economy.

Americans support Biden’s spending and want him to spend more: polls

Gold futures ended slightly lower, with prices sticking to a tight trading range, as investors awaited the outcome of the Federal Reserve's 2-day meeting on monetary policy.  The meeting is expected to see policy makers maintain their stance that they can wait until 2024 for US interest rate increases, & say that it is too early to even start talking about tapering its $120B per-month in asset purchases, otherwise known as quantitative easing.  A rise in consumer confidence put some pressure today on prices for haven gold.  The index of consumer confidence climbed to 121.7 this month from a revised 109 in the prior month, the Conference Board said.  Gold for Jun lost $1 to settle at $1778 an ounce. 

Gold prices settle lower ahead of Fed policy decision

India recorded more than 320K new cases & 2771 deaths today, according to the Indian Health Ministry, breaching 300K cases for a 6th straight day.  Hospitals are running out of oxygen, along with ICU beds, tests, treatments & personal protective equipment, prompting Western countries to commit to supply shipments.  Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been slammed for allowing political rallies to be held bringing crowds together without face masks & for allowing a Hindu festival to become a superspreader event.  But India is also struggling with a “double mutant” strain that is understood to be more transmissible than the original virus.  Called the B.1.617 strain, the new variant has 2 spike proteins instead of one.  World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that the situation in India was “beyond heartbreaking” & again urged world leaders to ensure vaccine equity for all countries.  In a speech, Tedros argued for the need for a renewed global commitment to vaccine access, & not just for COVID-19.  “Vaccines will help us end the COVID-19 pandemic but only if we ensure fair access for all countries, and build strong systems to deliver them,” he said.  “And if we’re to avoid multiple outbreaks of life-threatening diseases like measles, yellow fever and diphtheria, we must ensure routine vaccination services are protected in every country in the world.”

India’s COVID surge is ‘beyond heartbreaking,’ says WHO director-general, as first relief supplies arrive 

Oil futures finished at their highest prices in a week after OPEC & its allies surprised the market by meeting a day earlier than scheduled & decided to keep their current plan to gradually raise production in place.  The OPEC+ meeting had been scheduled for tomorrow.  The news comes amid growing worries that a surge in COVID-19 cases in India could lead to notable declines in demand for oil.  The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), which reviews the oil market, had rescheduled its own meeting today, a day earlier than previously planned.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Jun rose $1.03 (1.7%) to settle at $62.94 a barrel.  That was the highest front-month contract finish since Apr 19.  Jun Brent, the global benchmark, added 77¢ (1.2%) at $66.42 a barrel, the highest finish since Apr 20.  A surge in COVID-19 cases in India, the world's 3rd largest oil importer, has fueled worries about energy demand. India recorded more than 320K new cases & 2771 deaths yesterday.  It was its 6th straight day with more than 300K cases & countries around the world have started to send help in the form of oxygen supplies, equipment & tests.  Concerns about the surge in COVID case in India & Japan had fueled expectations that OPEC+ may hold off on easing production cuts & helped lift crude yesterday.

Oil ends at 1-week highs as OPEC+ meets a day early and decides keep its output plans in place

There is a lot riding on what Biden has to say to Congress about the virus & his plans for gov spending.  Spending is popular with most people since they think money grows on trees, so people are foolish not to take it.  However the economic recovery is strong, raising the concern that more gov spending will bring higher inflation.  As a result, Treasury debt is being sold with investors anticipating higher rates in the future.  Also the virus keeps fighting & is especially strong in 2 major economies, India & Japan.  The death totals from India show that 1 out of 1000 cases results in death.  That does not make sense.  The real number is being under-counted.  That story can get much darker with 2M cases reported in the last week.

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