Dow went up 26, decliners over advancers about 5-4 & NAZ added 30. The MLP index was slightly lower in the 168s & the REIT index fell 1+ to the 409s. Junk bond funds crawled higher & Treasuries saw limited buying. Oil slid back to the 58s & gold was off 1 to 1741.
AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)
|
|
The US trade deficit surged to a record high in Feb as the nation's economic activity rebounded more quickly than that of its global rivals & could remain elevated this year, with massive fiscal stimulus expected to spur the fastest growth in nearly 4 decades. The economy is roaring as increased COVID-19 vaccinations & the White House's $1.9T pandemic rescue package boost domestic demand, a chunk of which is being satiated with imports. The aggressive gov intervention & the Federal Reserve's ultra-easy monetary policy have charted a robust growth path for the economy. The trade deficit jumped 4.8% to a record $71B in Feb, the Commerce Dept reported. The forecast called for a $70.5B deficit. The goods trade gap was also the highest on record. Imports slipped 0.7% to $258B. Goods imports fell 0.9% to $219B. The drop likely reflected supply-chain constraints, rather than weak domestic demand. Imports of capital goods hit a record high, while those of industrial supplies & materials were the highest since Oct 2018. The US in Feb recorded its first petroleum deficit since Dec 2019, likely because of higher crude prices. Exports dropped 2.6% to $187B. Exports of goods tumbled 3.5% to $131B, likely hurt by unseasonably cold weather across large parts of the country. When adjusted for inflation, the goods trade deficit shot up to a record $99B in Feb from $96B in Jan. The real trade deficit is running well above the average for the Oct-Dec period. Economists expect growth this year could top 7%, which would be the fastest since 1984. The economy contracted 3.5% in 2020, the worst performance in 74 years. The IMF is forecasting the global economy to expand 6% this year, driven primarily by the US economy, which the fund estimated would grow by 6.4%.
US trade deficit hits record high in February
Pres Biden announced that the US has administered 150M Covid-19 vaccine shots since his inauguration & heis now aiming to have 200M vaccine doses administered within his first 100 days in office. The country is already on track to beat that goal. In the days remaining until Apr 30, Biden's 100th day in office, the US needs to average about 2M daily vaccine doses administered to reach 200M total. Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC) data show that the country is currently administering 3M shots per day on average. Biden announced yesterday that states should open vaccine appointments to all US adults by Apr 19, moving up his original deadline by nearly 2 weeks. Coronavirus case counts remain far off their peak Jan levels, but slightly above the most recent low point in late Mar. The 7-day average of daily new cases is 64K, according to Johns Hopkins University, a level similar to what the country saw during the summer surge. The 7-day average of daily Covid-19 deaths in the US is 785. On Mon, CDC Director Dr Rochelle Walensky said emergency department visits & hospitalizations associated with Americans 65 & older are declining. Seniors are among the most vulnerable groups & have made up a disproportionate number of reported Covid deaths. Those downward trends are “good news with regard to the power of vaccination,” Walensky added.
U.S. surpasses 150 million shots under Biden and is on pace to hit new goal
The strong Mar US jobs report is welcome news but not a sign that there should be a shift in the current easy monetary policy stance, said Chicago Federal Reserve Pres Charles Evans. “We still have a long way to go before economic activity returns to pre-pandemic vibrancy. Even after the very strong March employment report, at 6%, the unemployment rate is well above the 3.5% we saw on the eve of the pandemic,” Evans added. Employers added 916K new jobs in Mar & the unemployment rate fell to 6%. Evans' message was echoed in remarks from other Fed officials this week. On Mon, Cleveland Fed Pres Loretta Mester said the Mar report “was a great report” but the central bank needed to be patient. “But we’re still far from our policy goals. We need to be very deliberately patient in our approach to monetary policy,” Mester continued. And Dallas Fed Pres Rob Kaplan said that the economy still needs central bank support. At the start of the pandemic last year, the Fed cut its policy interest rate to zero. In addition, the central bank is buying $120B of assets per month to support the economy. The central bank has said it would maintain that pace of purchases until there has been “substantial further progress” toward the Fed's goals of full employment and stable 2% inflation.
Traders are waiting the see the minutes of last Fed meeting shortly & will be looking for clues about plans for interest rates. The vaccination news continues to be good although the number of deaths remains high which is a drag on economic expansion & that is critical to reduce the unemployment rate further.
Dow Jones Industrials
No comments:
Post a Comment