Tuesday, April 20, 2021

Markets tumble on worries about growing Covid death toll in India

Dow dropped 256, decliners over advancers 3-1 & NAZ settled back 128.  The MLP index fell 1+ to the 169s & the REIT index rose 3+ to the 424s.  Junk bond funds slid lower & Treasuries were in demand.  Oil dropped to the 61s & gold added 7 to 1777 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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The US is maintaining a pace of 3M reported vaccinations per day, as the country marches toward Pres Biden's goal of 200M shots given in his first 100 days.  The Biden administration had initially announced a target of 100M shots during that period — reached after 58 days of the presidency.  Biden announced the new goal on Mar 25, at which point the country had ramped up the vaccination campaign to 2.5M shots per day & was already on pace to hit the 200M mark.  At the current vaccination pace, the final tally of shots given during Biden's first 100 days would land closer to 230M.  Yesterday Biden announced that all US adults are now eligible to receive a Covid vaccine.  With 2.2M vaccinations reported administered yesterday, the US is now averaging 3.1M reported shots per day over the past week, according to Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC) data. The pause on the use of the Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) vaccine remains in place.  The single-shot inoculation has made up 7.9M of the 212M total shots administered to date, according to the CDC, & is responsible for about 9% of Americans who are fully vaccinated.  About 40% of the US population has received at least one dose of a Covid vaccine & 26% is fully vaccinated.  CDC data shows that more than ½ of those 18 years & older, & 80% of those 65 & older, are at least partially vaccinated.  The US is reporting about 67K daily new infections, based on a 7-day average of data reported by Johns Hopkins University.  That figure is far below the nation's winter peak, when average daily case counts topped 250K per day, but more in line with numbers seen during last summer's surge.  Average daily case counts are on the rise in 19 states & DC.  The 7-day average of daily Covid-19 deaths in the US is 714 & the nationwide death toll has surpassed 567K since the start of the pandemic.  Daily Covid deaths have been trending downward from the pandemic’s peak winter levels in recent months.

Covid cases, vaccinations remain elevated as U.S. nears Biden’s 200 million goal

Pres Joe Biden held a fresh round of talks with a bipartisan group of lawmakers, as he & Reps clash over the scope and size of an infrastructure proposal.  With Reps seeking to pare back Biden's more-than-$2T plan, the pres met with 4 members of the GOP — as well as 6 Dem lawmakers.  All attendees were former mayors or governors, whom the White House says “understand firsthand the impact of a federal investment in rebuilding our nation’s infrastructure on their communities.”  Reps have floated a plan with a price tag of less than ½ of Biden's, & moderate members of the GOP are reportedly seeking to include only what they consider traditional infrastructure: roads, bridges & the like.  They also reject a corp tax hike to pay for it, as Biden has suggested.  From the Dem side, Sens John Hickenlooper, Angus King of Maine & Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire attended the White House meeting in the PM.  Dem Reps Emanuel Cleaver, Charlie Crist of Florida & Norma Torres of California joined as well.  Rep Sens Mitt Romney & John Hoeven joined GOP Reps Carlos Gimenez & Kay Granger in the sit-down with Biden.  The meeting is the 2nd such gathering in a week.  On Apr 12, Biden said he was prepared to negotiate on both the contents of the plan & how it’s paid for.

Biden holds fresh round of bipartisan infrastructure talks as Republicans eye smaller package

Gold futures settled higher, getting a lift from a retreat in Treasury yields, but prices failed to recoup their loss from the previous session.  Jun gold  rose $7 (0.4%), to settle at $1778 an ounce, after declining 0.5% a day ago.  Prices on Fri had settled at $1780, their highest since Feb 24.  China has also announced it would allow large banks & financial institutions to import large quantities of gold, & that “policy change ‘opens up’ China to the type of ‘Wild West’ import capacity seen in a very long list of physical commodities over the last several years,” they said.

Gold prices settle higher amid a retreat in bond yields

Oil futures ended lower as record cases of COVID-19 in India dimmed the outlook for the nation's economy & energy demand.  Prices also declined on apparent progress in the Iran's nuclear deal negotiations & after the House Judiciary Committee cleared a bill that would leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries open to antitrust lawsuits over production cuts.  That confluence of factors erased earlier support for oil from a halt to crude exports from a Libyan port and overall weakness in the $.  India reported its worst daily death toll of the pandemic, with large parts of the country now under lockdown amid a fast-rising second wave of infections.  India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi held an address to the nation, which fed concerns surrounding India's struggle to contain the virus.  Modi, however, ruled out a nationwide lockdown as a measure to curb the pandemic & urged states to ensure that lockdowns are only chosen as the last resort.  West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for May delivery fell by 94¢ (1.5%) to settle at $62.44 a barrel on contract's expiration day.  The most-active Jun WTI contract, which became the front month at the end of the session, lost 76¢ (1.2%) to settle $62.67 a barrel.  Today marked the one-year anniversary of a negative price close for the front-month WTI crude futures contract.  On Apr 20, 2020, the soon-to-expire May WTI crude dropped 306%, or $55.90, to settle at negative $37.63.  Jun Brent crude the global benchmark, fell 48¢ (0.7%) at $66.57.

Oil futures end lower on India's weaker demand prospects, news on anti-OPEC bill

The virus keeps fighting, even after the news on vaccine shots is looking good.  There was buying in the last hour of trading which reduced losses.  However this was the 2nd grim day for stocks.  As expected, the talks in DC about another spending bill went nowhere.

Dow Jones Industrials








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