Friday, July 30, 2021

Markets fall after key inflation indicator rises

Dow dropped 123, decliners over advancers 5-4 & NAZ was off 103. The MLP index fell 1+ to the 184s & the REIT index jumped 4+ to 468.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were heavily purchased.  Oil did little in the 73s & gold pulled back 8 to 1827.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)







CL=FCrude Oil73.90
+0.28+0.4%






GC=FGold  1,828.90
 -6.90 -0.4%















 

 




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The core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, accelerated in Jun by the most on an annual basis in almost 3 decades.  Core PCE, which excludes food & energy, increased 3.5% year over year in Jun, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  The reading, which was the highest since 1991, was up fractionally from last month's 3.4% print.  Prices rose 0.4% on a monthly basis, slowing from the 0.5% increase in May.  The forecast anticipated prices would climb 3.7% annually & 0.6% month over month.  Overall, the personal consumption expenditures price index rose 4% year over year & 0.5% in Jun.  Last month, prices increased at a 3.9% annual rate.  Businesses have been grappling with higher costs in a number of areas, ranging from commodities to logistics, as the economy looks to put the COVID-19 pandemic in the rear view mirror.  Lockdowns aimed at slowing the spread of the virus resulted in supply-chain disruptions that have limited output amid a period of strong pent-up demand.  That has resulted in a number of companies hiking prices.  The Federal Reserve has said this period of rising prices is transitory & that bottlenecks that have occurred as a result of the pandemic will eventually work themselves out.  At that point, the Fed anticipates price pressures will ease.  The report also showed personal income ticked up 0.1% month over month versus a 2.2% decline in May.  Personal spending was up 1% in Jun after slipping 0.1% the previous month.  The forecast expected income to decline 0.3% & consumption to tick up 0.7%.

Fed's preferred inflation reading shows prices jump 3.5% annually

The CDC warned House lawmakers that the delta variant sweeping across the country is as contagious as chickenpox, has a longer transmission window than the original Covid-19 strain & may make older people sicker, even if they've been fully vaccinated.  The warning was made in a confidential document that was reviewed & authenticated by the federal health agency.  Delta, now in at least 132 countries & already the dominant form of the disease in the US, is more transmissible than the common cold, the 1918 Spanish flu, smallpox, Ebola, MERS and SARS, according to the document.  Only measles appears to spread faster than the variant.  “The war has changed,” officials of the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC) wrote.  Health officials said federal & state leaders should communicate to the public the benefits of getting vaccinated, adding the Covid vaccine shots reduce the risk of severe disease & death “10-fold or greater” & reduce the risk of infection “3-fold.”  Vaccines prevent more than 90% of severe disease, but may be less effective at preventing infection, they said, making community spread among the vaccinated more likely.  The document said 35K symptomatic infections are occurring per week among 162M vaccinated Americans.  Separately, the CDC said 5914 fully vaccinated people have been hospitalized or have died with Covid infections as of Jul 19, the most recent data available.  Breakthrough cases, which occur in the fully vaccinated, happen more frequently in gatherings of people & in groups at risk of primary vaccine failure.  Health officials also said federal & state leaders should consider vaccine mandates, particularly for health-care workers, universal masking & other community mitigation strategies.  Pres Biden announced yesterday his administration would require federal workers to prove their vaccination status or submit to a series of rigorous safety protocols.

CDC warns delta is as contagious as chickenpox and may make people sicker than original Covid

The Senate will vote today to move forward with a bipartisan infrastructure bill as Majority Leader Chuck Schumer pushes to pass it as soon as next week.  The procedural measure will need a simple majority to pass in the Senate split 50-50 by party.  The chamber last advanced the proposal by a 67-32 margin in a Wed test vote.  The vote continues a scramble by Dems to clinch 2 massive pieces of their economic agenda before the Senate leaves for its recess scheduled to start Aug. 9. The chamber could stay in session thru the weekend to debate & amend the plan.  The measure would put $550B in new funds into transportation, power, water & broadband.  While negotiators have outlined how much money would go into everything from roads to railways & electric vehicle charging stations, senators have not released final legislation.  Dems aim to pass the bill along with a 2nd, separate $3.5T package that would include a bevy of other party priorities.  The proposal could address child care, paid leave, tax credits for households & climate policy.  Schumer hopes to approve a budget resolution, a key step in getting the bill thru Congress, before the Senate leaves for its recess.  The vote would unlock the budget reconciliation process, which would allow Dems to pass their plan without a Rep vote.  The bipartisan plan had more than enough GOP support to advance this week.  17 Rep senators including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, voted to move forward with it Wed.  They joined all 50 Dems.  Their support for the procedural motion does not mean they will back the final bill.  It will need 60 votes to get thru the Senate.

Senate set to advance bipartisan infrastructure bill on Friday in procedural vote

The inflation news is very disturbing, especially because many of those guys in DC don't understand numbers .  They believe money grows on trees & tomorrow will take care of itself.  Watch the goings on in DC before they go on "vacation."  The virus news is not encouraging for investors.  However, with a constantly changing message, it's evaluate its credibility.  In Jul the Dow is up 500 & above 35K.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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