Tuesday, July 20, 2021

Markets rally after yesterday's selloff

Dow jumped 549, advancers over decliners 5-1 & NAZ gained 223.  The MLP index rose 7+ to the 182s & the REIT index surged 10+ to the 464s for a new record.  Junk bond funds found buyers today & Treasuries were sold, bringing slightly higher yields.  Oil rebounded to the 67s & gold was steady at 1808 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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The delta variant first identified in India is now estimated to make up 83% of all sequenced Covid-19 cases in the US, the director of the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention said.  “This is a dramatic increase from up from 50%, the week of July 3,” CDC Director Dr Rochelle Walensky said during a Senate hearing.  The surge in delta cases is leading to more deaths.  Covid fatalities have risen by nearly 48% over the past week to an average of 239 per day, she added.  “Each death is tragic and even more heartbreaking when we know that the majority of these deaths could be prevented with a simple, safe, available vaccine,” she continued.  Walensky said nearly 2/3 of the counties in the US have vaccinated less than 40% of their residents, “allowing for the emergence and rapid spread of the highly transmissible delta variant.”  The variant is even more contagious than the alpha variant, which was first identified in the UK & was estimated by public health officials there to be 43-90% more transmissible than the original Covid-19 strain.  Discovered in Oct, delta has since spread to more than 100 countries, according to World Health Organization data.  “The reason it’s so formidable is the fact that it has the capability of transmitting efficiently from human to human in an extraordinary manner, well beyond any of the other variants that we’ve experienced, up to now,” Dr Anthony Fauci, the White House's chief medical advisor, said during the hearing.

Delta variant now accounts for 83% of all sequenced Covid cases in the U.S., CDC Director Walensky says

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer rejected Rep calls to slow down the process of moving a bipartisan infrastructure plan thru the chamber.  Instead, he heaped more pressure on senators to reach a final agreement on the legislation & said he had no plans to delay tomorrow's up or down vote to proceed with debate on the plan.  Schumer argued that the procedural vote to advance a House transportation bill that will comprise part of the ultimate infrastructure package was not a final deadline to finish the harder pieces of legislation but merely a starting point to begin formally debating what the bill should contain.  “It is not a cynical ploy. It is not a fish-or-cut-bait moment. It is not an attempt to jam anyone,” Schumer added.  “It’s only a signal that the Senate is ready to get the process started — something the Senate has routinely done on other bipartisan bills this year,” the majority leader said.  Once the shell bill is approved, Schumer said, he would insert the bipartisan infrastructure language into it on Thurs if a deal has been reached by then.  If a deal is not reached, but the shell bill ends up passing the 60-vote threshold, Schumer said he would insert language from several smaller bills that have already been approved either by Senate committees or by the full Senate: A water bill, a highway bill, a rail & transit bill, & an energy bill.  Schumer filed the original motion to proceed with the House bill yesterday, with the intention of swapping in the text of the Senate infrastructure legislation once it is written.  The vote tomorrow will simply initiate a debate that Schumer said could take several more weeks — “No more, no less.”  “We’ve waited a month. It’s time to move forward,” he said, referring to the Jun 24 announcement at the White House by Pres Biden that the group of nearly 2 dozen bipartisan senators had struck a deal.  Schumer needs at least 10 Rep votes to pass the motion tomorrow.  If that vote fails, Reps would “be denying the Senate an opportunity to consider the bipartisan amendment,” Schumer said.  “In order to finish the bill, we first need to agree to start,” he added.  Yet even as Schumer played down the significance of tomorrow's vote, Rep opposition to moving forward with the bill has been hardening in recent days.  As soon as news emerged of Schumer’s plan, Reps negotiating the infrastructure package cried foul & demanded more time to finish the web of funding sources to pay for a proposed $579B in new infrastructure investments.

Schumer defends tight infrastructure deadline as GOP threatens to tank key vote

Microsoft (MSFT), a Dow stock, said it’s rolling out a Windows 11 update that includes its Chat feature for talking with friends & family members over Microsoft Teams.  People who are already testing Windows 11 thru the Windows Insider program will be able to try the Chat software before Windows 11 becomes generally available for everyone later this year.  The addition of the component into Windows could bring greater adoption of Teams, which became more popular during the coronavirus pandemic.  If more people use Teams, the software could become a more valuable asset in the Office suite, which is currently the largest part of MSFT’s business.  The stock rose 2.31.
If you would like to learn more about MSFT, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/MSFT?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Microsoft rolls out Windows 11 update with Teams chat built in

Gold futures settled marginally higher to log their first gain in 3 sessions, as investors assessed demand for the yellow metal amid worries about the spread of the delta variant of the coronavirus, which roiled financial markets yesterday.  Aug gold edged up $2 to settle at $1811 an ounce after trading as high as $1825.  Prices had lost 0.3% yesterday.  The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has fallen to its lowest since mid-Feb & continued to decline after a round of mixed data on US housing.  Gold futures remain lower for the week despite yesterday's rise, as the ICE U.S. Dollar Index headed up by 0.1% in dealings today, contributing to a week-to-date rise of almost 0.4%.

Gold futures end higher after back-to-back declines

Oil futures settled with a gain of more than 1%, a day after the US benchmark suffered its biggest single-session decline since Mar.  Signs of a tight physical market helped soothe worries over the economic outlook, tied to the spread of the delta variant of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 & a recent decision by OPEC+ to boost production.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Aug, which expired at the end of the trading session, rose $1 (1.5%) to end at $67.42 a barrel.  The US benchmark fell 7.5% yesterday, its biggest single-session drop since Sep 8.  The new front-month, Sep crude added 85¢ 1.3%, to settle at $67.20 a barrel.  Sep Brent crude, the global benchmark, tacked on 73¢ (1.1%) to $69.35 a barrel after falling 6.8% yesterday, the biggest one-day percentage decline since Mar.  Oil supplies have tightened, with US crude inventories below the 5-year average for this time of year.  The Energy Information Administration has reported weekly decreases in supplies for 8 weeks in a row & is expected tomorrow to report yet another decline.  The forecast expects the EIA to report a fall of 6.7M barrels in domestic crude supplies last week.  Also, the forecast inventory is a decline of 1.1M barrels for gasoline & 600K for distillates.

Oil prices end higher, rising 1% after biggest drop in months

Rushing the new bill thru Congress, even before it is written, spells sloppy.  Nobody will know what pet projects have been injected at the last minute.  More massive spending is not what the economy needs as inflation has become a major threat to the economy.  The growth of the new virus also must be watched closely.  Today, buyers returned at the opening & maintained their enthusiasm for the entire session.

Dow Jones Industrials








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