Tuesday, July 27, 2021

Markets slip lower on concerns about the Delta variant spreading

Dow dropped 85, decliners over advancers 5-2 & NAZ retreated 180.  The MLP index fell 4+ to the 183s & the REIT index rose 2+ to the 466s.  Junk bond funds were weak & Treasuries continued in strong demand.  Oil slid lower in the 71s & gold was steady at 1800 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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The Government Accountability Office (GAO) estimates that more than $1T in federal coronavirus funds have not been spent, a new report shows.  The reporti comes less than 2 weeks after Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said the Budget Committee had reached an agreement to allot $3.5T for a spending package that would complete Pres Biden's infrastructure plan.  "Despite over $1 trillion in unspent federal funds sitting in accounts, Democrats are focused instead on how they can spend trillions more by reaching back into taxpayers’ pockets or adding more to the nation’s debt," House Budget Committee Rep Leader Jason Smith said.  The $1T figure includes $156B approved by the Dept of Health & Human Services (HHS) & $210B that the federal gov allocated for state & local govs.  A number of state & local govs have been planning ways to make use of the federal funds for needs unrelated to COVID-19, such as local infrastructure.  "As of May 31, 2021, of the $4.7T appropriated by … six laws for COVID-19 relief—including about $1.6 trillion appropriated by ARPA, which was enacted in March 2021—the federal government had obligated a total of $3.5 trillion and had expended $3.0 trillion, as reported by federal agencies," the GAO report reads.  Some Reps previously expressed concerns with Pres Biden's nearly $2T American Rescue Plan, pointing out that about $1T in federal funds had gone unspent at the time he signed the plan into law in Mar.

Dems demand more spending despite $1T in unused coronavirus funds

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was relatively unchanged in Jul, following gains in each of the prior 5 months.  The Index now stands at 129.1 (1985=100), up from 128.9 in Jun.  The Present Sitaution Index—based on consumers' assessment of current business & labor market conditions—rose from 159.6 to 160.3.  The Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, & labor market conditions—was virtually unchanged at 108.4, compared to 108.5 last month.  Consumer confidence was flat in Jul but remains at its highest level since Feb 2020 (132.6),” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board.  “Consumers’ appraisal of present-day conditions held steady, suggesting economic growth in Q3 is off to a strong start. Consumers’ optimism about the short-term outlook didn’t waver, and they continued to expect that business conditions, jobs, and personal financial prospects will improve. Short-term inflation expectations eased slightly but remained elevated. Spending intentions picked up in July, with a larger percentage of consumers saying they planned to purchase homes, automobiles, and major appliances in the coming months. Thus, consumer spending should continue to support robust economic growth in the second half of 2021.”

https://conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm

UPS (UPS) had another strong qtr with shipments to homes continuing at a brisk pace, though revenue at home, its biggest market, was a little weaker than some had expected.  Domestic revenue still grew 10.2% to $14.4B in Q2, with per-piece revenue rising 13.4%.  However, projected domestic revenue was $14.76B.  Revenue from intl operations spiked 30% to $4.82B, which was better than the $4.57B had been expected.  In Q2 EPS was $3.05.  Stripping out one-time costs, EPS was $3.06, easily beating the $2.75 expected.  A year earlier the company had EPS of $2.03.  Overall revenue was $23.42B, also better than expected.  The stock dropped 14.81 (7%).
If you would like to learn more about UPS, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/UPS?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Shipping continues at blistering pace, UPS earns $2.7B in second quarter

Gold futures logged a slight gain, but ended below closely watched $1800-an-ounce mark for a 2nd-straight session, holding ground near the lowest price in three weeks.  Investors are tracking developments in China, where a regulatory crackdown on US-listed technology firms has sent ripples thru equity markets.  Gold for Aug added only chump change to settle at $1799 an ounce.  The most-active contract settled yesterday below $1800 for the first time since Jul 6.  After the Conference Board said that the index of US consumer confidence rose to 129.1 this month from a revised 128.9 in Jun, gold prices briefly turned higher, then fell back toward sessions lows.

Gold prices notch a slight gain, but end below $1,800 for a second session

Oil futures settled lower as traders weighed worries about the impact on energy demand from the spread of the delta variant of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19.  The Centers for Disease Control & Prevention was expected to change its policy later today on face masks in public settings for some parts of the US as infections with the delta variant of the coronavirus spread, according to media reports.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Sep, the US benchmark, fell by 26¢ to settle at at $71.65 a barrel fter settling yesterday with a minor loss.  Front-month Sep Brent crude, the global benchmark, declined by 2¢ at $74.48 a barrel, posting its first loss in 6 sessions.  Oct Brent, the most actively traded contract, lost 18¢ at $73.52 a barrel.  Oil futures have erased the sharp drop seen on Jul 19 following the OPEC+ agreement to raise production by 400K barrels a day each month beginning in Aug until 5.8M barrels in existing output curbs are eliminated.  That drop, however, appeared to have little to do with the OPEC+ decision.  Instead, it was driven largely by concerns the spread of COVID cases caused by the delta variant could prompt renewed business lockdowns that would jeopardize the outlook for a continued global economic recovery & rising demand for crude oil. 

Oil prices end lower on demand risks tied to spread of coronavirus delta variant

Those guys in DC did not learn how to count but that is not stopping them throwing endless sums of money around.  The infrastructure bill remains in limbo & hardly anybody is saying anything about raising the debt limit before Sun.  Wearing masks all of a sudden seems to be coming to the US.  It's hard to believe with all that is flying around, the stock averages will keep rising.  But stranger things have happened.

Dow Jones Industrials








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