Friday, September 2, 2022

Markets give up gains ahead of long holiday weekend

Dow dropped 337 (about 800 below early highs), decliners ahead of advancers about 4-3 & NAZ declined 154.  The MLP index went up 2 to the 217s & the REIT index dropped 5+ to the 408s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries traded higher, lowing yields.  Oil was higher in the 86s & gold recovered 14 to 1724 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Home sellers are getting nervous, as the once-hot housing market cools fast.  One in 5 sellers in Aug dropped their asking price, according to Realtor.com.  A year ago that share was just 11%.  The average home sold for less than its list price for the first time in over 17 months during the 4-week period ended Aug 28, according to a report by Redfin.  Homes are simply not selling at the breakneck pace they were 6 months ago, when strong demand butted up against tight supply, bidding wars were the norm & a seller could often get a signed contract in under a weekend.  Homes in Aug sat on the market an average 5 days longer than they did a year ago — the first annual increase in time on the market in more than 2 years.  The supply of homes for sale is also rising fast, up nearly 27% from a year ago, even as fewer sellers decide to list.  Pending sales in Jul, which represent signed contracts on existing homes & which are the most recent sales data available, were nearly 20% lower than Jul 2021, according to the National Association of Realtors.  “For many of today’s buyers, the uptick in for-sale home options is taking away the sense of urgency that they felt during the past two years, when inventory was scarce,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com.  “As a result of this shift, coupled with higher mortgage rates, competition continued to cool in August, with listing price trends indicating that home shoppers are tightening their purse strings.”  The median listing price in Aug dropped to $435K from $449K in Jul, according to Realtor.com.

1 in 5 home sellers is now dropping their asking price as the housing market cools

Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC) Director Rochelle Walensky gave the final sign off for updated COVID-19 vaccines targeting the omicron strain.  BA.5, a subvariant of omicron, is responsible for about 89% of new coronavirus infections, according to CDC data.  The new shots, made by Pfizer (PFE) & Moderna (MRNA), are tweaked versions that offer ½ the original concoction & ½ to target BA.5 & BA.4.  "They can help restore protection that has waned since previous vaccination and were designed to provide broader protection against newer variants," Walensky added.  COVID-19 cases have steadily declined since mid-Jul, with the 7-day moving average falling from 130K new cases on Jul 16 to 85K on Aug 31.  Still, many Americans have resisted booster shots since they were first approved late last year.  Just 51.5% of adults who received the 2 primary doses have received their first booster shot, according to the CDC.  Only about 1/3 of people ages 50 & older who are eligible for a 2nd booster shot have received that dose.

ANOTHER JAB:CDC approves updated COVID-19 vaccines targeting omicron variant

Russia's Gazprom announced a halt of gas supplies to Europe thru the Nord Stream pipeline, citing the need for additional repairs.  Earlier in the week, the Russian gas giant stopped energy supplies to Europe via the pipeline in a planned “maintenance outage” expected to last until tomorrow.  Gazprom said in an update on the Telegram messaging app that inspectors found an oil leak in the pipeline.  “Gas transportation to the Nord Stream gas pipeline has been completely stopped until the issues on the operation of the equipment are eliminated,” the energy company added.  Ukraine's state energy company said a power unit at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant was reconnected to the power grid.  “Today, September 2, 2022, power unit No. 5 of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, which was disconnected as a result of another mortar shelling by the Russian occupying forces at the Zaporizhzhia site, was connected to the power grid at 1:10 p.m,” according to an update from Energoatom.  “Currently, two power units are operating at the station, which produce electricity for the needs of Ukraine,” the company added.

Gazprom halts gas supplies to Europe; UN team at Ukraine nuclear plant ‘not going anywhere’

Gold prices ended higher but posted a loss for the week.  Dec gold futures rose $13 (0.8%) to settle at $1722 after losing 1% yesterday.  Prices based on the most-active contract end with a more than 1% loss for the week.  Gold finished higher in the wake of today's release of the monthly US employment data.  The US labor market is strong according to the data, which showed that the US added 315K new jobs in Aug, basically matching estimates.  The labor participation number has also improved, a highly encouraging sign.  The ICE US Dollar index was down 0.1% at 109.568 in today's dealings, while 10-year Treasury yields fell to 3.2016% from 3.264% yesterday.  Strength for the week, however, contributed to a decline in $-denominated prices of gold.

Gold prices end higher, but post a loss for the week

Oil futures saw a modest gain, but posted a hefty weekly loss as investors awaited a meeting of OPEC+ early next week.  West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for Oct rose 26¢ to settle at $86.87 a barrel after trading as high as $89.66 during the session.  The US benchmark, based on the front-month contract, logged a 4.6% weekly loss.  Nov Brent crude, the global benchmark, added 66¢ (0.7%) to $93.02 a barrel, for a 6.1% weekly decline.  WTI & Brent ended at roughly 2-week lows yesterday.  Crude prices fell this week as traders reacted to another COVID lockdown in China, with authorities putting restrictions on Chengdu, a city of 21M.  Worries about the global economic outlook as the Federal Reserve & other major central banks tighten monetary policy aggressively in an effort to wring out inflation has also been a weight on futures prices.  Attention is focused on the Mon meeting of OPEC+ when US markets will be closed for the Labor Day holiday.  The expanded cartel has unwound production cuts that were introduced after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 & last month agreed to a modest output increase of 100K barrels a day for Sep, though surveys indicate that production remains below target.  Saudi Arabia's energy minister last month floated the prospect of a production cut amid what he described as a disconnect between the physical & futures markets, though analysts largely expect OPEC+ to hold off on Mon.

Oil futures end higher for the session, down for the week

Trading began the day higher after the jobs report.  But investors are nervous & sellers were active going into a long weekend.  This week, Dow dropped 900.  Check below, 70% of the recent advance from mid Jun has been lost.  Try to have a good weekend.   😀

Dow Jones Industrials 








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