Friday, September 30, 2022

Markets struggle to find footing as the third quarter ends

Dow dropped 500 to session lows, advancers & decliners about equal & NAZ slid back 161.  The MLP index added 2+ to the 203s & the REIT index rebounded 5+ to 361 following heavy selling.  Junk bond funds were sold & Treasuries continued flattish with little change in yields.  Oil was off 1+ to the 79s & gold added 3 to 1671 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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The House passed a stopgap funding measure to keep the federal gov open until at least mid-Dec.  The continuing resolution measure was approved by a 230-201 margin with a majority-Dem vote. The approval came a day after the Senate passed the same resolution in a down-to-the-wire vote.  Pres Biden is expected to sign it into law later today.  If the resolution had not been passed, the gov would have shut down due tonight's deadline for approval of the upcoming federal budget.  Funding in the resolution includes approximately $12B in emergency aid for Ukraine, $18.8B for the FEMA Disaster Relief Fund & $1 billion for heating & utility assistance.  The bill, which will fund the gov until Dec 16, needed to pass before negotiations for the final 2023 budget could continue.

House passes stopgap funding measure to avoid federal government shutdown

Big Tech companies are the target of a House measure giving states greater power in competition cases & increasing money for federal regulators.  The antitrust legislation focuses on the dominance of tech companies.  The bipartisan measure passed by a 242-184 vote yesterday.  It was separated from more ambitious provisions cleared by key House & Senate committees aimed at reining in the biggest tech companies.  Those proposals have languished for months, giving the companies time for vigorous lobbying campaigns against them.  The bill would give states an upper hand over companies in choosing the location of courts that decide federal antitrust cases.  Proponents say this change would avert the "home-court advantage" that Big Tech companies enjoy in federal court in Northern California, where many of the cases are tried & many of the companies are based.  The bill also would increase filing fees paid by companies to federal agencies for all proposed mergers worth $500M or more, while reducing the fees for small & medium-sized transactions.  The aim is to increase revenue for federal enforcement efforts.  Under the bill, companies seeking approval for mergers would have to disclose subsidies they received from countries deemed to pose strategic or economic risks to the US — especially China.

REINING THEM IN: House passes antitrust bill targeting Big Tech

The Biden administration announced new economic sanctions on hundreds of Russian officials & entities in response to the Kremlin's illegal annexation of 4 regions of Ukraine.  “Make no mistake: these actions have no legitimacy,” Pres Biden said slamming Russian Pres Vladimir Putin's goal of recreating a Soviet-style Russian empire.  “I urge all members of the international community to reject Russia’s illegal attempts at annexation and to stand with the people of Ukraine for as long as it takes,” he said, vowing that America & its allies would hold the Kremlin accountable.  The new sanctions target several front companies outside of Russia that were created this year to help major Russian military suppliers evade the sanctions they had already faced.  The new designations also expand sanctions on top Kremlin officials to include their wives & adult children.  After 7 months of war & economic sanctions, these revisions offer a window into what US officials believe is working.  The Treasury Dept named 14 intl suppliers that assisted Russia's military supply chains.  It also imposed designations on 109 members of Russia's State Duma & 169 members of the Federation Council of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.  In announcing the annexations Friday in Moscow, Putin declared that “There are four new regions of Russia,” referring to the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia & Kherson.  Putin cited sham referendum votes held in Russian-occupied areas, saying voters approved becoming parts of Russia.  Those votes are widely viewed by Western officials as rigged & illegitimate.

U.S. announces new sanctions on Russia in response to Ukraine annexation

Gold prices post a 6th-consecutive monthly loss.  Gold futures climbed today to post a gain for the week, shrugging off rising inflation in Europe & the US, as the $ traded below a 20-year high reached earlier this week.  Overall strength in the $, however, on the back of aggressive monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve, as the central bank continues its efforts to tame inflation, pushed $-denominated prices for the metal lower for the month, as well as the qtr.  Gold for Dec rose $3 to settle at $1672 an ounce.  Prices based on the most-active contract climbed 1% for the week.  They posted declines of 3.1% for the month & 7.5% for the qtr.  Gold ended Fri at its highest level in just over a week despite another batch of worrying inflation data out of the eurozone, which showed consumer-prices are rising at their fastest pace since World War II, one day after an inflation report out of Germany revealed something similar.  Data in the US meanwhile, showed that the personal-consumption price index, a key gauge of US inflation, rose a mild 0.3% in Aug, but prices are still going up at the fastest pace in 40 years.  Lately, movements in the price of gold has been dictated mostly by the relative value of the $ along with rising Treasury yields.  Gold's decline for the month & qtr really has to do with the strength in the $.  The $ index for the last qtr, gold & currency have been moving inversely to each other.  For Q3, gold futures based on the most-active contract lost almost 8% lower, while the ICE US Dollar Index has gained over 7%.  The $ index today traded below its 20-year high of 114.78, reached on Wed.

Gold ends higher for the week, but falls for the month and quarter on strength in the U.S. dollar

Oil futures declined, contributing to their losses for the month & qtr as concerns over a potential recession  raise expectations for a slowdown in demand.  Still, oil supply will get tighter in the winter & now that most of the crude demand destruction has been priced in, prices may stabilize going into the year-end.  Nov WTI crude fell $1.74 (2.1%) to settle at 79.49 a barrel, with front-month prices still up about 1% for the week.  For the month, prices lost 11% & ended the qtr down 25%.

Oil futures end lower for the session, month and quarter

It's been a tough time for stocks in 2022.  Dow is down 7600 YTD & lost over 2000 in Q3.  Today it closed below 29K, that's where it was shortly after the election.  The outlook continues to be bleak as the Fed struggles to control high levels of inflation & a recession is out there.

Dow Jones Industrials 








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