Wednesday, September 21, 2022

Markets rise ahead of Fed decision and Russia escalates war tensions

Dow went up 144, advancers over decliners 5-2 & NAZ added 33.  The MLP index added 1+ to the 219s & the REIT index rose 3 to the 393s after recent selling.  Junk bond funds hardly budged & Treasuries saw limited buying.  Oil was about even in the 83s & gold rose 4 to 1675.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

 

  

 




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Sales of previously owned homes fell 0.4% in Aug from Jul to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.8M units, according to the National Association of Realtors.  That is the slowest sales pace since Jun 2020, when activity stalled very briefly due to the start of the pandemic.  Outside of that, it is the slowest pace since 2015.  Sales were 19.9% lower than in Aug 2021.  The sales figures represent closings, so contracts that were likely signed in Jun & Jul, when mortgage rates spiked higher & then pulled back.  The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage began Jun at around 5.5% & then shot up over 6% by the middle of the month, according to Mortgage News Daily.  It then pulled back a bit, hanging in the 5.7% range for most of Jul before dropping further to the low 5% range at the end of the month.  The 30-year fixed started this year at 3%. It is now close to 6.5%.  Even with interest rates making housing even less affordable, prices were still higher than a year ago.  The median price of an existing home sold in Aug was $389K, up 7.7% from a year ago.  Home prices historically drop from Jul to Aug, due to seasonality, but the drop this year was wider than usual, suggesting a significant softening.  From Jun thru Aug, prices usually decline about 2%, but this year they have fallen about 6%.  “The housing market is showing an immediate impact from the changes in monetary policy,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors, noting that he will revise his annual sales forecast down further due to higher mortgage rates.  “Some markets may be seeing price declines.”  Sales fell in all price categories, but more sharply on the lower end.  Sales of homes priced $250-500K were down 14% year over year, while sales of those priced $750K-$1M were down just 3%.  Much of that has to do with supply, which is leanest on the lower end of the market.

Existing home sales fall in August, and prices soften significantly

Walmart (WMT), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, plans to hire fewer employees this holiday season amid a backdrop of uncertain economic conditions.  The retailer announced that plans to add 40K seasonal & full-time workers across the company before the holiday shopping season gets underway.  This includes seasonal store associates, full-time, permanent truck drivers & customer care associates.  "As we prepare to serve customers this season, we’ll begin, as usual, by offering additional hours to current associates who want them," WMT said.  WMT said in Sep of last year that it would hire 150K workers for the holiday season.  The stock went up 2.40.
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Holiday hiring: Walmart to add fewer workers this year

Russian Pres Vladimir Putin announced a partial military mobilization in Russia, putting the country's people & economy on a wartime footing as Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine continues.  In a rare prerecorded televised announcement, Putin said the West “wants to destroy our country” & claimed the West had tried to “turn Ukraine’s people into cannon fodder,” repeating earlier claims in which he has blamed Western nations for starting a proxy war with Russia.  Putin said “mobilization events” would begin today without providing further details, aside from saying he had ordered an increase in funding to boost Russia's weapons production, having committed (& lost) a large amount of weaponry during the conflict, which began in late Feb.  A partial mobilization is a hazy concept, but it could mean that Russian businesses & citizens have to contribute more to the war effort.  Russia has not yet declared war on Ukraine, despite having invaded in Feb & it calls its invasion a “special military operation.”  Putin confirmed that military reservists would be called up into active service, but insisted a wider conscription of Russian men of fighting age was not taking place.  “I reiterate, we are talking about partial mobilization, that is, only citizens who are currently in the reserve will be subject to conscription, and above all, those who served in the armed forces have a certain military specialty and relevant experience. Conscripts will obligatorily go through additional military training based on the experience of the special military operation before departing to the units,” he added.  In what was immediately greeted as an escalatory address, Putin also accused the West of engaging in nuclear blackmail against Russia & warned again that the country had “lots of weapons to reply” to what he said were Western threats — adding that he was not bluffing.

Putin mobilizes 300,000 troops for war in Ukraine and warns he’s not bluffing with nuclear threat

Investors are waiting for the Fed to talk about rising interest rates  Meanwhile the hiring plans for WMT are chilling & Russia's conduct in its war has to be watched.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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