Tuesday, July 18, 2023

Markets climb on hopes for interest rate hikes to enc after July

Dow shot up 366 (near session highs), advancers over decliners better than 2-1 & NAZ  gained 108.  The MLP index added 2+ to the 235s & the REIT index fell 2+ to the 378s.  Junk bond funds remained weak & Treasuries had limited buying, slightly reducing yields.  Oil was up 1+ to the 75s & gold advanced 24 to 1980 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Microsoft (MSFT), a Dow & NAZ stock, rose after the company announced a new artificial intelligence subscription service for Microsoft 365.  The company will charge users an additional $30 per month for the use of generative AI with tools like Teams, Excel & Word.  Adding on the subscription to Copilot, a generative AI assistant that works across Microsoft 365 programs, could increase monthly prices for enterprise customers as much as 83%.  Copilot's capabilities include ranking incoming emails, summarizing meetings, analyzing spreadsheet data, offering writing prompts & designing presentations.  The updates come as the race to offer consumer-driven generative AI tools heats up among tech giants.  “It’s grounded in your business data in the Microsoft Graph — that’s all your emails, calendar, chats, documents and more,”  MSFT wrote in a release, adding that the tool abides by a user's preset security, privacy & compliance policies for Microsoft 365.  The tool is in currently in early testing stages with 600 enterprise customers. MSFT has not announced a timeline for its public rollout.  The company also announced a significant update to Bing Chat, its AI chatbot: visual search.  Users can now take or upload a photo to Bing Chat & ask for more information on it thru the desktop or Bing apps.  The stock jumped 13.76 (4%).
If you would like to learn more about MSFT,
click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/MSFT_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6aeoso5b6f7

Microsoft stock pops after it announces $30 per month A.I. subscription for Microsoft 365

US consumer sentiment jumped to the highest level in nearly 2 years in Jul as inflation subsided & the labor market remained strong, a survey showed.  The University of Michigan's preliminary reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at 72.6 this month, the highest reading since Sep 2021, compared to 64.4 in Jun.  The forecast called for a preliminary reading of 65.5.  "Sentiment climbed for all demographic groups except for lower-income consumers," said Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu.  "The sharp rise in sentiment was largely attributable to the continued slowdown in inflation along with stability in labor markets."  The survey's reading of one-year inflation expectations inched up to 3.4% this month from 3.3% in Jun.  Its 5-year inflation outlook nudged up to 3.1% from 3.0% in the prior month, remaining within the narrow 2.9-3.1% range for 23 of the last 24 months.

US consumer sentiment near two-year high in July

Charles Schwab (SCHW) CEO Walt Bettinger said that retail investors using his brokerage platform are showing signs of bullishness on the stock market.  Bettinger revealed that its clients have been adding equity exposure in the past few months.  The volume of buy orders on Schwab's platform is 20% higher than sell orders, showing investor optimism about the market, he added.  “What’s interesting about June is that, even as this cash realigning fell to the lowest level it’s been in many, many months, part of that was because clients are now moving back into the equity markets. So that’s a good thing,” Bettinger continued.  “It’s clients simply moving into something in cash that pays higher yield. They’re back in the market. And we saw in the aggregate for the second quarter, buys were about 20% higher than sells. Our clients are showing some optimism,” he added.  Shares of SCHW soared after its 2nd-qtr report topped expectations.  EPS was 75¢ on $4.66B in revenue.  The forecast estimated 71¢ on $4.61B of revenue.  But the stock is still down more than 21% this year, even after today's surge.  SCHB shares sold off dramatically earlier this year during the regional banking crisis amid concerns about deposit outflows & its balance sheet.  The stock soared 7.34 (13%).
If you would like to learn more about MSFT,
click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/MSFT_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6aeoso5b6f7

Charles Schwab CEO: Bullishness among retail traders is rising

Gold futures climbed, settling at their highest since early Jun. The recent gains for gold have been triggered by the $ falling sharply last week amid expectations that the Federal Reserve is close to reaching the end of its rate hiking cycle, after both CPI & PPI measures of inflation came in weaker than expected.  Data today showing weaker US retail sales & industrial production data further fueled those expectations, causing Treasury yields to fall, which in turn helped to support low- & zero-yielding assets, like gold.  Gold for Aug rose $24 (1.3%) to settle at $1980 an ounce.  That was the highest most-active contract finish since Jun 6.

Gold Futures Post Highest Settlement In 6 Weeks

Oil futures finished higher, marking their first gain in 3 sessions.  With OPEC discipline acting to stem oil price declines, energy traders could remain in buy-the-dip mode until proven wrong.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Aug rose $1.60 (2.2%) to settle at $75.75 a barrel.

Oil Futures Mark First Gain In 3 Sessions

The Dow rose at the opening & continued strong.  At midday it settled at high levels where it stayed for the rest of the session.  That made for a very good day, although market breadth was not impressive.  In Jun & Jul it rose an eye popping 1900.  Bets are bringing out buyers who expect a Jul rate hike to be be the last.  Of course, rates will still be very high & would have the potential to pinch any economic recovery.            

Dow Jones Industrials 








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