Tuesday, July 25, 2023

Markets edge higher ahead of major earnings and Fed decision on rates

Dow added 26 after some selling in the last hour of trading, advancers modestly ahead of decliners & NAZ was up 85.  The MLP index inched up to 85 & the REIT index fell 3+ to the 384s.  Junk bond funds were little changed & Treasuries had very limited buying keeping rates about even.  Oil climbed higher in the 79s (3 month high) & gold was up 3 to 1965 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Home prices rose for the 4th consecutive month in May even as buyers continued to confront steep mortgage rates.  Prices increased 1.2% nationally in the period from Apr to May on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index showed.  On an annual basis, prices are down just 1% from their peak in Jun 2022.  "The rally in U.S. home prices continued in May 2023," said Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI.  "Home prices in the U.S. began to fall after June 2022, and May’s data bolster the case that the final month of the decline was January 2023… The breadth and strength of May’s report are consistent with an optimistic view of future months."  The 10-city composite, which encompasses Los Angeles, Miami & New York, fell 1% annually, compared with a 1.1% increase in Apr.  The 20-city composite, which also tracks housing prices in Dallas & Seattle, fell 1.7% in May, unchanged from the previous month.  There was a major discrepancy in the price gains in the 20 cities.  Chicago saw a 4.6% annual gain, making it the best-performing city for the first time.  Cleveland, meanwhile, posted a 3.9% gain, followed by New York with a gain of 3.5%.  On the other end of the spectrum, cities on the West Coast posted some of the biggest declines.  Seattle prices plummeted 11.3%, edging out San Francisco with its 11% decline.  "Regional differences continue to be striking," Lazarra said.  "This month’s league table shows the revenge of the Rust Belt, as Chicago, Cleveland, and New York were the top performers. If this seems like an unusual occurrence to you, it seems that way to me too."  Buyers have adjusted to higher mortgage rates & grappled with limited inventory, the housing market has shown early signs of stirring back to life.  Rates on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage are currently hovering around 6.78%, according to Freddie Mac, well above the 5.51% rate recorded one year ago & the pre-pandemic average of 3.9%.

Home prices rose for 4th straight month in May

UPS (UPS) & the Teamsters announced that the 2 sides reached a tentative agreement on a new contract that will avert the threat of a strike beginning in Aug.  The current UPS Teamsters collective bargaining agreement, which is the largest private sector CBA in North America, is set to expire on Jul 31, & union members were poised to begin a strike on Aug 1 if the 2 sides were unable to reach an agreement.  The UPS Teamsters union's roughly 340K members voted in Jun to authorize a strike, with 97% of voting members in favor.  The deal comes as the 2 sides returned to the negotiating table after talks had broken down in recent weeks.  UPS Teamsters will vote to ratify the new agreement next month, with electronic voting beginning on Aug 3 & concluding on Aug 22.  "Together we reached a win-win-win agreement on the issues that are important to Teamsters leadership, our employees and to UPS and our customers," CEO Carol Tomé said.  "This agreement continues to reward UPS’s full- and part-time employees with industry-leading pay and benefits while retaining the flexibility we need to stay competitive, serve our customers and keep our business strong."  Intl Brotherhood of Teamsters President Sean O'Brien touted the "historic" deal as being a "tremendous victory for labor." The stock fell 2.02.
If you would like to learn more about UPS,
click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/UPS_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6aeoso5b6f7

UPS and Teamsters union reach deal on new contract

Biogen (BIIB) expects to cut approximately 1000 jobs, about 11% of its workforce, to save costs as the biotech company prepares to launch its newly approved Alzheimer's drug Leqembi.  It's the latest round of layoffs after it slashed nearly 900 jobs last year.  It had 8725 employees worldwide as of the end of 2022.  The job cuts are also part of the company's ongoing cost-cutting & reorganization plan, which also involves shaving down its research & development pipeline to prioritize Leqembi & other drugs.  BIIB, in its 2nd-qtr earnings report, said that R&D pipeline prioritization is “substantially complete.”  The larger plan is expected to generate approximately $1B in gross operating expense savings by 2025.  About $300M of those savings will be reinvested into product launches & R&D programs.  The company also said the plan will result in $700M in net operating expense savings by 2025.  The new layoffs follow landmark approvals of Leqembi & the company's ALS drug Tofersen this year.  The stock dropped 8.64 (3%).
If you would like to learn more about BIIB,
click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/BIIB_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6aeoso5b6f7

Biogen to cut 1,000 jobs to save costs as company prepares for Leqembi launch

Gold futures settled higher, a day ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy announcement.  Gold is going to wander around for the next 24 hours as nothing else really matters except the Fed.  Gold for Aug rose $1 to settle at $1963 an ounce after losing 0.2% yesterday to mark the lowest most-active contract finish since Jul 17.

Gold futures end higher ahead of Wednesday's Fed policy decision

The 2 main crude-oil benchmarks, WTI & Brent, each finish higher for a 4th consecutive session & at settlement highs not seen since mid Apr.  WTI crude finishes up 1.1% at $79.63 a barrel, while Brent crude ends a bit below $84.  The rally in oil markets comes amid rising optimism that easing inflation means the Fed will start to wrap up its rate-hike cycle, with one increase expected tomorrow & perhaps one final hike in the fall.  Before tomorrow's Fed decision, oil markets will be watching for weekly US oil inventory reports later today & tomorrow.

Oil Prices End at 14-Week-Highs Ahead of Fed Decision

Earnings reports are coming from big tech companies.  In addition, when Powell speaks tomorrow everybody will listen.  The stock market continues overbought.

Dow Jones Industrials 







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