Dow crawled up 8, advancers modestly ahead of decliners & NAZ added 68. The MLP index edged up fractionally to 241 & the REIT index was off 1 to the 386s. Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries saw selling, bringing higher yields (more below). Oil rose fractionally to 79 & gold inched up 2 to 1964.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
The IMF raised its growth forecast for the global economy, turning slightly more positive despite slowing momentum from China. The IMF raised its 2023 global growth prediction by 0.2 percentage points to 3%, up from 2.8% at its Apr assessment. The IMF kept is 2024 growth forecast unchanged at 3%. In terms of inflation, the Fund also expects an improvement from last year. Headline inflation is projected to reach 6.8% this year, falling from 8.7% in 2022. However, core inflation, which strips out volatile items, is seen declining more slowly to 6% this year, from 6.5% last year. “The global economy continues to gradually recover from the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In the near term, the signs of progress are undeniable,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the chief economist of the IMF, said. “Yet many challenges still cloud the horizon, and it is too early to celebrate,” he added. The IMF highlighted concerns with tighter credit conditions, depleted household savings in the US a shallower-than-expected economic recovery in China from strict Covid-19 lockdowns. “In the United States, excess savings from the pandemic-related transfers, which helped households weather the cost-of-living crisis and tighter credit conditions, are all but depleted. In China, the recovery following the reopening of its economy shows signs of losing steam amid continued concerns about the property sector, with implications for the global economy,” Gourinchas said. The US, the world's largest economy, is set to grow 1.8% this year & 1% in 2024, according to the IMF. In China, GDP is seen falling from 5.2% this year to 4.5% for 2024. “Continued weakness in the [Chinese] real estate sector is weighing on investment, foreign demand remains weak, and rising and elevated youth unemployment, at 20.8% in May 2023, indicates labor market weakness,” the IMF continued. It added that “high-frequency data through June confirm a softening in momentum into the second quarter of 2023.”
IMF raises global growth forecast despite China’s recovery ‘losing steam’
Treasury yields were higher as the Federal Reserve's meeting
kicks off & investors assessed the outlook for monetary
policy decisions from central banks around the world. The 10-year Treasury yield was trading more than 4 basis points higher at 3.904% & the 2-year Treasury yield was also up more than 4 basis points at 4.887%. Yields & prices have an inverted relationship & 1 basis point equals 0.01%. Investors considered what could be next for interest rates in the US & other key global economies. The Bank of Japan & Federal Reserve are all due to announce rate decisions this week. The
Fed's meeting begins today & investors are widely expecting
policymakers to announce a 25 basis point rate increase tomorrow. The picture is, however, less clear when it comes to the other 3 Fed
meetings scheduled for the year & what policy moves the central bank
could make then. Elsewhere, markets are pricing in a 25 basis point rate hike from the ECB on Thurs. The Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates unchanged Fri & continue with its very loose monetary policy approach.
Treasury yields climb as investors weigh interest rate decisions ahead
General Motors (GM) is raising its 2023 guidance for a 2nd time this year after the
automaker reported Q1 results that were up sharply
year over year. The automaker also said it is increasing
cost-cutting measures thru next year & now plans to reduce $3B in expenditures compared with previous guidance of $2. CFO Paul Jacobson said the reductions will include sales & marketing spending, salary employment, and other costs. Earnings included an unexpected $792M charge for new
commercial agreements between GM & LG Electronics & LG Energy
Solution. The cost is a result of the automaker sharing expenses with
the companies for a recall of its Chevrolet Bolt EV models in recent
years, which were previously expected to be paid by the LG companies. Taking that charge into account, the company reported adjusted earnings before interest & taxes of $3.23B. On
an unadjusted basis, EPS was $1.83, up 52% from a
year earlier when EPS was $1.14. Revenue during the qtr jumped 25% compared with $35.7B a year earlier. For
the full year, GM is raising its adjusted EPS expectations to $12-14B, up from a previous range of $11-13B. GM also increased expectations for adjusted
automotive free cash flow of $7-9B, up
from $5.5-7.5B, & for net income attributable to
stockholders of $9.3-10.7B, compared with the
previous outlook of $8.4-9.9B. Jacobson said the raise is a result of stronger-than-expected pricing, demand & capital discipline. However,
the guidance increase is contingent on GM successfully negotiating new
labor agreements with the UAW & the Canadian Unifor
unions this year without a work stoppage or strike. The UAW has new
leadership that has publicly been far more confrontational
than prior union officers. The current contracts covering roughly
150K union workers for the automakers are set to expire Sep
14. The stock fell 1.74.
If you would like to learn more about GM, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/GM_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6aeoso5b6f7
General Motors raises full-year guidance, announces deeper cost-cutting
Dow Jones Industrials
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