Showing posts with label Lennar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lennar. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Markets fluctaute after consumer confidence data

Dow hovered near breakeven all day with selling into the close.  It finished down 43, decliners ahead of advancers 4-3 & NAZ slid 2.  The Financial Index dropped 2 to the 213s, profit taking with the index still up 38 in Q1.  The MLP index fell 1½ to the 395s & the REIT index was up a fraction in the 253s to its yearly highs.  The chart below shows the run for an ETF that tracks the Alerian MLP index & it's pretty, although it's had tough going in the last month. Junk bond funds were mixed but Treasuries rallied after their recent sell-off.  Oil did little after rumors about the US releasing oil from its strategic reserves.  The immediate effect could lower prices, but the downward pressure on prices should not last.  Gold pulled back slightly after yesterday's rally.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


stock chart



Click below for the latest market update:


Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.081%

U.S. 2-year

0.323%

U.S. 10-year

2.187%

CLK12.NYM...Crude Oil May 12...107.24 ...Up 0.21 (0.2%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Enbridge Venture Plans New Oil Pipes to Gulf

Photo:   Bloomberg

Enbridge Inc (ENB) & Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) will more than double the capacity of the Seaway Pipeline, easing a major oil glut in the US that has led to an unprecedented distortion in crude markets.  The expansion would add 450K barrels per day (bpd) of capacity to the Seaway system, raising its capacity to 850K bpd by mid-2014.  The company also plans to increase the size of its Flanagan South Pipeline from Flanagan, Illinois to Cushing, Oklahoma, to a 36-inch diameter line with an initial capacity of 585K bpd.  The estimated cost would increase to $2.8B from $1.9B.   ENB share of the cost of the Seaway pipeline twin line & extension is expected to be about $1B.  The companies are racing to unlock a glut of crude in the Midwest, which has built up over the year due to rising supplies from Canada & North Dakota.  Ballooning inventories at Cushing, the storage hub for US crude has led to a greater price difference between US crude & the European benchmark Brent.  The US crude discount to Brent hit a record $28 in Oct, but the spread is now around $18.  "Enbridge's Gulf Coast Access projects give Bakken and western Canadian producers timely, economical and reliable options to deliver a variety of crudes to refinery hubs throughout the heart of North America and now as far as the Gulf Coast," said Patrick D. Daniel, CEO of ENB said.  It's MLP subsidiary, Enbridge Energy (EEP), will build & operate the extension of its pipeline which comes down from Canada.  EEP units slipped 4¢.

Enbridge Venture Plans Pipes to Gulf as Keystone Blocked

Enbridge Energy, L.P. (EEP)

stock chart

  • A Lennar model home is open for customers in a new neighborhood in the Denver suburb of Thornton, Colorado March 29, 2011. REUTERS/Rick Wilking

Photo:   Yahoo

Lennar posted a sharp jump in new orders & said it was seeing real signs of recovery in the housing market.  "The housing market and the overall economy 0are stabilizing and a very real trend is beginning to take shape," CEO Miller said.  Q1 new orders jumped 33% to 3022 homes.  LEN has been able to increase prices & reduce sales incentives in some of its communities.  Orders have been increasing for 4 straight qtrs as low interest rates & home prices have helped improve sentiments towards owning a home.  Homebuilder sentiment in Mar was the highest level since Jun 2007.  Permits for homebuilding neared a 3½ year high in Feb reinforcing views that home building would add to economic growth this year for the first time since 2005.  However, CEO Miller warned that the recovery process would not be smooth.  "The stabilization process after a full seven year decline in housing is rocky and erratic and is certainly not yet broad-based," Miller said.  He said recovery will emanate from the most desirable markets & spread slowly outward over the next few years.  The stock rose 1.22 (5%).

Lennar Hits Highest Since 2007 as Income Beats Estimates

Lennar Corporation (LEN)


stock chart


Walgreen, a Dividend Aristocrat, posted a 7.6% decline in quarterly profit as it filled fewer prescriptions due to the loss of a contract & a mild flu season.  WAG stopped filling prescriptions for patients in the Express Scripts (ESRX) after the companies failed to agree on a new contract.  The number of prescriptions filled at comparable WAG stores fell 8.6% in Jan & 9.5% during the first 28 days of Feb.  EPS was 78¢ in fiscal Q2 versus 80¢ a year earlier.  Sales rose 0.8% to $18.6B & sales at stores open at least a year, or same-store sales, fell 1.5%.  The stock rose 41¢, but has a drab chart over the last year.

Walgreen Profit Tops Analysts’ Estimates as New Food Products Boost Sales

Walgreen Co. (WAG)


stock chart


Dow is having another excellent month & qtr.  It's up 245 in Mar & almost 1K in Q1.  The major driver has been improved economic data in the US with stronger factory output & more hiring of workers leading to a lower unemployment rate.  But earnings season begins in 2 weeks & there is a lot of nervousness which has been holding back buyers in recent weeks.  Also, gas at the pump is pushing $3.90 which compares with an all time record of $4.11.  High priced gas has always been a major negative for the stock market.

Dow Industrials


stock chart





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Monday, September 20, 2010

The September rally continues

Stocks jumped out of the gate & continue strong. Dow is up 105 to a new post May high, advancers ahead of decliners almost 5-1 & NAZ gained 25. As usual with market moves, bank stocks were leaders. The Financial Index still has 200 has its goal (which it has been not above since early Aug).


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value 198.87 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX (S5FINL:IND)
Change 2.34 (1.2%)



The Alerian MLP Index rose 1.79 to over 330, its highest level in almost 2 months. The REIT index was up almost 4 to the 217s, only 2 below its yearly high. When stocks rise, junk bond funds are not far behind, remaining near yearly highs. The VIX was down only a fraction, still in the 21s. The € was up a fraction of a penny to almost $1.31. Treasuries slipped in the strong stock market. The yield on the 10 year Treasury bond rose 2 basis points to 2.75% nearing its 2.80%+ yearly high.


Treasury Securities


U.S. 3-month
0.15%
U.S. 2-year
0.46%
U.S. 10-year
2.75%


Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks




VIX --- 2 weeks




10-Year Treasury Yld Index --- 2 weeks




Rising stock markets bring out bullish sentiment for oil. Gold rose to a record for a 3rd day as a weaker dollar & concern that the recovery may be faltering boosted demand as a protection of wealth.

CLV10.NYM...Crude Oil Oct 10...74.69 ...Up 1.03
.......(1.4%)

GCU10.CMX...Gold Sep 10...1,282.00 ...Up 6.40
.......(0.5%)


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Lennar (LEN), 4th largest US homebuilder, reported a better-than-estimated Q3 profit as margins on house sales improved & orders fell less than projected. EPS for the qtr ended Aug 31 was 16¢ compared with a loss of 97¢ last year earlier, beating estimates of 3¢. LEN has been cutting costs & expanding its distressed investing operations as demand for houses slumps after expiration of a tax credit for homebuyers. Orders fell 15% in Q3, a smaller decline than estimated. Q3 revenue increased 14% to $825M as home completions rose 10% to 2,950. But orders fell to 2,624 homes from 3,104 last year. The Rialto Investments unit, which focuses on managing & restructuring distressed real estate, contributed $7.7M in operating profit during the period. Rialto’s role expanded after Feb, when LEN bought a 40% stake in a $3B portfolio of loans auctioned by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. This showing gets a "good enough" rating. The stock gained 89¢ to 14.88.

Lennar Reports Third-Quarter Profit as Margins Widen


Lennar --- 2 years





However housing remains mired in the dumps. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo confidence index remained unchanged at 13, matching the lowest reading since Mar 2009. Projections were for a rise to 14. The housing market continues depressed following the expiration of a tax credit on Apr 30


Homebuilders confidence index - 1 year

One-Year Chart for Market (USHBMIDX:IND)


IBM to Buy Netezza for $1.7 Billion to Gain Analytics

Photo: Bloomberg


IBM (IBM), a Dow stock, will buy Netezza (NZ) for about $1.7B to gain analytics technology. NZ shareholders will receive $27 a share in cash, but the stock is 57¢ above that price hoping for an even better offer. NZ integrates hardware with programs that store & analyze data. The acquisition is set to close by Dec 31.

IBM Plans to Acquire Netezza for $1.7 Billion to Gain Analytics Technology


Netezza --- 1 year




IBM --- 2 years





We're back to all news is good news, what the bulls like to hear. The € was strong on word that European sovereign debt problems are fading (for the time being). Problems still exist with the slow economic recovery & a muddled picture about extending personal tax cuts into next year.


Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks








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Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Nervousness about European debts sinks stocks

Markets remained under water all day on gloomy housing numbers & problems from European borrowings (which may be coming to center stage). Dow was down 52, decliners over advancers 2-1 & NAZ lost 16. Banks found buyers taking the Financial Index up a fraction to yet another interim high even though there was more talk about greater financial regulation.


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
214.40
Change
0.37
% Change
0.2%






The Alerian MLP Index lost only a fraction, still in the 299s. But the Dow Jones REIT Index was up 1 to 201, giving a YTD gain of over 10%. While quality bonds had a major sell-off, junk bond funds attracted buying interest & rose. Worries about credit defaults in Europe caused European debts & Treasuries to sell off. The 10-year Treasury bond PLUNGED today causing the yield to spike up 15 basis points to 3.84% (a change of 10 points is considered an extremely big change in the world of Treasury bonds). Last year, 4% was the highest yield on the bond (shown in the chart below) & that figure is regaining importance. Today, a record-tying $42B sale of 5-year Treasury debt drew a higher-than-forecast yield & lowest demand since July.


Alerian MLP Index --- YTD




Dow Jones REIT Index --- YTD




10-Year Treasury Yield Index - 1 year





Oil fell but held the 80 level. Gold did not do as well, dropping below its 1100 support line.

CLK10.NYM...Crude Oil May 10...80.58 Down 1.33
......(1.6%)

Gold...1,086.20__-17.50__-1.6%




Lennar (LEN), a top 5 home-builder, reported a narrower-than-expected loss & said it was on track to make a profit in 2010. LEN reported a Q1 loss of 4¢ per share versus 98¢ last year. Revenue fell 3% to $574M beating estimates of $568M. The average home sale prices rose 6% while expenses fell, resulting in higher gross margins of 19.2% (up from 6.5% last year). Orders rose 18% despite a reduction in sales incentives offered to home buyers. Stuart Miller, Chief Executive, said, "We believe that our core business will continue to improve as we deliver homes from our recent strategic land acquisitions and volume levels increase as the recovery of the housing market continues." Of the biggest home-builders, Lennar's shares have risen the most in the past year (up 81%). Today the stock was up 63¢ to 17.69.

•Lennar posts narrower-than-expected loss Reuters


Lennar --- 2 years





Dick Bove, a key banking analyst, said he expects banks to quadruple in the next 2-3 years as defaults decrease. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Financials Index (see above) has risen 162% from its 17-year low (82) reached last year. Keeping it in perspective, the index would have to go over 500 for an all time record. Banks benefited from gov spending, lending or guaranteeing loans while the Federal Reserve (FED) kept its benchmark interest rate near zero. Higher interest rates & unwinding of positions the FED has taken may put a crimp in his forecast.











Bulls will not be discouraged by this setback, saying it's just a pause which the markets need after recent gains. The Dow is up 10%+ in the last 5 weeks & that has been pretty much straight up. But European debt problems look like they are becoming more serious.

Dow Jones Industrials --- YTD




Nasdaq --- YTD