Showing posts with label US economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US economy. Show all posts

Monday, June 4, 2012

Markets slide on lower factory orders

Asian markets had a major sell-off, but US markets opened mixed & continue to stumble.  Dow fell 24, decliners over advancers 4-3 & NAZ slipped 1.  The Financial Index lost a fraction, going below 181 (34 below its Mar high).

The MLP index dropped another big 6 to the 351s (lowest since Oct) & the REIT index was off fractionally in the 241s (23 below its 2012 highs).  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries lost a little ground on profit taking after its recent gains.  Oil fluctuated on weaker Chinese economy data & slight strengthening in the €.  Gold also was not sure where to go.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.066%

U.S. 2-year

0.250%

U.S. 10-year

1.509%

CLN12.NYM....Crude Oil Jul 12...83.38 ...Up 0.15  (0.2%)

GCM12.CMX...Gold Jun 12.....1,620.80 ...Up 0.30  (0.0%)




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German Chancellor Angela Merkel

Photo:   Bloomberg

A spokesman for Chancellor Merkel said that Spain knows where to look for aid if it’s needed, giving no ground to Prime Minister Rajoy's pleas that Germany consider new ideas to resolve the debt crisis.  With markets bracing for further deterioration in Spain’s finance sector & a possible Greek departure from the euro area, Rajoy on Sat added his voice to calls for a “banking union” in Europe involving a centralized system to re-capitalize lenders.  But Merkel shut off another crisis-fighting avenue the same day as she toughened her opposition to euro-area debt sharing, saying that “under no circumstances” would she agree to euro bonds.  Options “that resemble euro bonds” are conceivable after a process of European integration lasting “many years,” Merkel’s chief spokesman said.  For now, “it’s up to national governments to decide whether they want to avail themselves of aid from the backstop and accept the conditions linked to it, and that of course also applies to Spain.”  As euro-area unemployment reached its highest level on record, manufacturing output contracted for a 10th straight month in May & the currency plunged close to a 2-year low (below $1.25), leaders continued to wrangle over the details of support for the currency bloc.  President Obama meanwhile laid the blame for sluggish US employment at the feet of euro-area leaders, saying they haven’t done enough to resolve the crisis, now in its 3rd year.  “With the term ’banking union’ there are not only a lot of different concepts,” a German Finance Ministry spokesman said.  “The term is used in many contexts with many different ways of understanding it.”  The debt mess is lumbering along.

Pressure Builds on Merkel as Spain Calls for Bank Aid


U.S. Manufacturing Fell in April

Photo:   Bloomberg

Companies placed fewer orders to US factories for the 2nd straight month & a key measure that tracks business investment plans fell, adding to evidence that the economy is weakening.  The Commerce Dept said that orders for factory goods fell 0.6% in Apr from Mar.  Demand for core capital goods, such as heavy machinery & computers, dropped 2.1%, following a 2.3% decline in Mar.  Core capital goods are a good proxy for business investment plans.  The declines suggest companies may be worried about a weaker job market, which could crimp consumer spending.  They may also fear the worsening European debt crisis & slower growth in China could slow demand for exports.  Even with the declines, factory orders are well above their recession lows.  Orders in Apr totaled $466B, up 39% from the recession low reached 3 years earlier.  Orders are still 3.1% below the peak reached in Dec 2007, the month the recession began.  Factory activity grew more slowly in May, according to the ISM's closely watched survey.  Still, the survey said new orders, an indication of future activity, rose to a 13-month high, suggesting growth could pick up in the coming month.  Factories were one of the few industries to create jobs in May, adding 12K jobs, helped by rising demand for exports & a boom in car sales.

Factory Orders in U.S. Unexpectedly Decline for Second Month


Growth Slowdown Seen for Third Year in U.S. Dodging a Recession

Photo:   Bloomberg

The US economy may deliver a repeat performance in 2012: for the 3rd straight year, if it suffers a swoon yet not slip into a recession.  Household balance sheets are in better shape, with indebtedness down about $100B in Q1.  Banks are more profitable as earnings have risen for 11 straight qtrs.  Even the housing market is reviving, with starts thru the first 4 months of this year, 24% higher than the comparable 2011 period.  Declining orders to US factories in Apr unexpectedly declined, pointing to a deceleration in manufacturing as the global economy cools.  Bookings dropped after a revised 2.1% slump in Mar, the first back-to-back decreases in more than 3 years.  Repeating the pattern of the last 2 years, Ben Bernanke is likely to respond to the job-market weakness by announcing further steps to stimulate growth.  The moves could come when the Federal Reserve meets Jun 19-20.  Bernanke may give a hint of plans when he testifies to Congress on Thurs.  

Growth Slowdown Seen in U.S. as Recession Dodged: Economy


After a dismal week wrapping up a dreary month, stocks began the week lower.  It's difficult to find encouraging news to bring out buyers.  Factory orders are another reminder that the US economy is plodding along at an unacceptable level.  Analysts are revising earnings (coming next month) downward after the slew of economic reports.  The slowdown in China is worrisome & the euro debt mess is looking very bad as the recession will add to the difficulties of finding a way out.  Facebook (FB) fell another fraction to $27, another reason buyers are staying away from the markets.  This could be another bad week for the markets.

Dow Industrials


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Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Markets settle back when Dow is unable to hold 13,000

Dow dropped 53,  decliners over advancers almost 2-1 & NAZ fell 19.  The Financial Index was off 1 to the 198s, unable to break 200 all month.

The MLP index was off a smidgen to 408 & the REIT index fell pocket change in the 243s (both near their highs).  Junk bond funds rose while Treasuries retreated.  Oil rose for the first time in 3 days, capping the first monthly gain since Nov, on reports of US economic expansion.  Gold tumbled the most in 2 months on signs that the Federal Reserve will refrain from offering more monetary stimulus to bolster the US economy.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


stock chart


Click below for the latest market update:


Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.076%

U.S. 2-year

0.297%

U.S. 10-year

1.983%

CLJ12.NYM...Crude Oil Apr 12...106.96 ...Up 0.41  (0.4%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




A pair of housing units are shown for sale in San Francisco

Photo:   Yahoo

The economy started the year off well with busier factories, higher retail sales, more jobs & growth in home sales.  The Federal Reserve said that all 12 of its banking districts reported some level of growth in Jan & the first half of Feb.  Manufacturing output rose in all districts.  Auto manufacturing, steel makers & other metal producers all reported solid growth.  Home sales increased in at least half of the districts, an improvement from the last report in Jan.  Sales are expected to climb further in 4 districts & 6 districts reported rising construction of apartments.  However, some manufacturers reported concerns about Europe's financial crisis in the report known as the Beige Book.  It's released 8 times a year.  There are predictions of another big month of job growth in Feb, based on a steady decline in applications for unemployment benefits & more optimism in business surveys.  More jobs have boosted incomes & the ability to spend, a key driver of economic growth.  Incomes increased in H2 of 2011 much more than previously estimated.  Factory production jumped last month & Dec was the strongest month of growth in 5 years.  Even the depressed housing market is flashing signs of a modest rebound.  Of course, this report was conducted before rising gas prices began to bite hard.



Greece does little to enforce anti-corruption rules & many of its laws condone graft, undermining its efforts to reform and pull itself out of a debt crisis, Transparency Intl said.  "We all know about the debt crisis, but Greece is also suffering a crisis of values," said Costas Bakouris, head of the corruption group's Greek division.  "It has the right laws in place but does little to enforce them."  Greece has struggled for years with rampant corruption that has hampered efforts to raise taxes & reform its stricken economy, now in its 5th year of deep recession.  Irate foreign lenders are waiting nervously to see whether it follows through on pledges to reform itself.  The report said Greece had many laws in place to fight corruption but they were not being enforced.  On the other hand, laws that allow buildings built illegally to be approved later, & allow "special" accounts at ministries where transparency rules do not apply effectively condoned corruption, it said.  The report urged Greece to improve rules on disclosing the accounts of political parties, put in place stronger rules to make private companies more transparent & merge existing anti-corruption agencies into a single body.  Greece was ranked 80th out of 183 countries in the group's 2011 corruption perceptions index, below China, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia & Cuba.  Only Bulgaria ranked lower in the European Union & Western Europe section.  The Greek debt mess is far from being over.

Greece Doing Little to Fight Corruption, Group Says


U.S. Was Net Oil-Product Exporter for First Time Since 1949

Photo:   Bloomberg

The US exported more gasoline, diesel & other fuels than it imported in 2011 for the first time since 1949, according to the Energy Dept as.shipments abroad exceeded imports by 439K barrels a day. In 2010, daily net imports averaged 269K barrels.  Total crude & product imports fell 11% from a year earlier to 8.4M barrels a day, the lowest level since 1995.  US refiners exported record amounts of gasoline & distillate fuels, including heating oil & diesel, to meet higher global fuel demand while gasoline consumption sank & distillate was little changed.  Distillate shipments rose 30% from a year earlier to a record 854K barrels a day, & daily exports of finished gasoline & blending components jumped 57K to 526K barrels in 2011. The US will ship abroad 350K barrels a day more petroleum products that it imports in 2012 & 320K barrels daily in 2013, according to the department’s report released on Feb 7.  Gasoline demand sank 2.9% to 8.7M barrels a day, as pump prices averaged $3.52 a gallon, the highest in history.



Apple crossed an amazing milestone in when its market cap exceeded $500B!  To put this in perspective, it is now more valuable than the GDP of Poland, Belgium, Sweden & even Saudi Arabia.  AAPL is the 4th company to break this mark, and unlike others that have briefly traded in this neighborhood ((Microsoft (MSFT) & Cisco (CSCO)), both Dow stocks, & AAPL has the potential to blow past it.  Other companies which have held the title of largest market cap in the world include General Electric (GE) & IBM (IBM), again both Dow stocks.  AAPL will launch iPad 3 in a couple of weeks & plans to bring out a new TV in the fall.  The stock was up $7 to $542 (a new record).

 Apple Valuation Tops $500 Billion as Company Readies IPad 3 Introduction

Apple Inc. (AAPL)


stock chart


This should have been a day for joy with the Dow & S&P 500 going above key technical levels & NAZ inching over 3K.  But there was no follow thru, instead stocks sold off mildly.  The € slipped more than a penny to $1.33¼ when the ECB tossed big money at European banks.  Dow gained 320 in Feb but is only back to where it was 2 weeks ago before high oil prices became a national issue.  Stocks may need a chance to pause & take a breather after the 2500 rise in the last 5 months.

Dow Industrials


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Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Mixed markets despite strong economic data

Dow slipped 13, advancers ahead of decliners 3-2 & NAZ was up 8 on good vibes from the CES show in Vegas.  The Financial Index rose 1+ to the 187s, just a couple under the Nov highs of 189.

The MLP index fell 3 to the 287s & the REIT index was up 1+ to the 235s.  Junk bond funds edged higher & Treasuries were strong.  Oil fell as US crude & fuel supplies climbed more than expected & concern mounted about a contracting German economy.  Gold rose to a 4 week high as China's demand surged to a record & Europe's debt woes spurred demand for a safe haven investment.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


stock chart


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Today's 50 Top Trending Stocks below:


Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.015%

U.S. 2-year

0.225%

U.S. 10-year

1.902%

CLG12.NYM...Crude Oil Feb 12....100.93...Down 1.31  (1.3%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]





  • <p>               In this Dec. 14, 2011 photo, line worker Jeff Danes demonstrates moving a battery charger for a Ford Focus on the assembly line at the Ford Michigan Assembly plant in Wayne, Mich. The final weeks of 2011 were the economy's strongest since it appeared to be slipping toward recession in late spring. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Photo:   Yahoo

The final weeks of 2011 were the economy's strongest since it appeared to be slipping toward recession in late spring.  Consumers spent more freely, factories made more goods, travel was stepped up & the auto industry enjoyed its best stretch of the year.  This comes from the Federal Reserve's survey.  All but one of its 12 banking districts experienced some growth from late Nov thru the end of the year.  However, some sectors of the economy (i.e. housing) remain weak.  The economy & job market have both picked up since early 2011.  Dec may end up being the strongest month last year, an optimistic sign for the economy in 2012.  Employers added 200K net jobs & the unemployment rate fell to 8.5%, the lowest in nearly 3 years.  Still, the modest recovery is vulnerable to setbacks.  Europe's debt crisis could lower demand for US exports,  consumers could pull back on spending & Congress could decide not to extend the Social Security tax cut or long-term unemployment benefits.

Fed: Economy Improves; Housing and Hiring Still Weak


The ECB needs to ramp up its buying of troubled euro zone debt to support Italy & prevent a "cataclysmic" collapse of the €, David Riley said, the head of sovereign ratings for Fitch, said.  Riley said a collapse of the € would be disastrous for the global economy, & while it is not Fitch's baseline scenario, it could happen if Italy did not find a way out of its debt problems.  "The end of the euro would be cataclysmic. The euro is a reserve currency," Riley said. "What would that do in terms of financial and political stability?"  "It is hard to believe the euro will survive if Italy does not make it through," he said, adding that while many saw Italy as too politically and economically important to be allowed to fail, "one might also argue that it is too big to rescue."  The warning sent the € to a 16-month low of $1.27.  Riley urged the ECB to abandon its current reluctance to scaling up its purchases of troubled euro zone debt such as Italy's & drop its resistance to the bloc's bailout fund, the EFSF, borrowing directly from it.

ECB Must Do More to Avert Euro Collapse: Fitch


The CES convention/show in Vegas is getting a lot of attention.  Intel, a Dow stock, CEO Otellini said that 2011 sales were probably $54B, in line with the $53.9B average estimate.  “Any way you look at it, this will be the best year in Intel’s history,”  “We’ll probably get $54 billion of revenue.”  Analysts are looking or EPS of $2.37 this year & only $2.38 next year.  The stock was up 21¢ to $25.80.

Intel CEO Projects $54 Billion in 2012 Sales, Shy of Estimatesat Bloomberg

Intel Corporation (INTC)


stock chart


Once again, little was decided in today's trading.  The MLP index, which had been red hot, cooled down.  But owners are happy with record or near record prices for MLPs.  In a couple of weeks distribution announcements will be coming which should bring more hikes.  Earnings announcements begin in force tomorrow.  Ones from the big banks could mention more layoffs.  Today Dow worked its way back to breakeven in the PM, but not good enough to close in the black.  Dow is up 230 YTD.  Treasuries continue to do well with the yield on the 10 year Treasury down to 1.9%.  Investors still view AA+ Treasuries as a safe haven investment & that money is not going into the stock market!

Dow Industrials (INDU)


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