Saturday, October 11, 2008

October is already one brutal month

This has already been one brutal month, but there are still 3 weeks to go:


Dow Jones Industrials - 2 months





Dow Jones Industrials

30-Sep-08...... 10,851

9-Oct-08......... 8,451

Down............. 2,400

Central bank leaders are meeting this weekend trying to find fixes for ailing markets. Let's see what they come up with!

Friday, October 10, 2008

Dow's losing streak extended

Sellers went home a little early on Fri allowing the buyers to take over in the final hour. But buyers could not carry the day. Dow had been up & down big (below 7K at the lows) but ended down 128, decliners over advancers better than 2-1 & NAZ was up a few. S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX rebounded strongly from the 172 yearly low to close at 197, up 13. Most of the other indices had similar stories. The Alerian MLP index came back from another low (152) to close at 163, down only 4.

Oil price crashed once again:

CLX08.NYM....Crude Oil Nov 08...78.76 ...Down 7.83 (9.0%)


As a footnote, Exxon Mobil, a Dow stock, dropped 5½ to 62, another yearly low.

In this brutal Oct sell-off, all yield based securities have been punished badly. Badly!! Junk bond funds are yielding around 20%, seemingly discounting the end of the world & the hereafter. I just got a statement form one of mine which RAISED (I repeat raised) the div over 10% a few months ago. The reward was to drop the price another 10% to a new record low. Since then the stock must be down another 1 (it's a low price stock). REITs have always had high dividend yields, so they are even higher in today's depressed markets are even higher. Yields are well into double digits are common. The yields for MLPs are largely tax free in the year in which they are paid & much of the REIT divs may be tax free or taxed at capital gains rate, etc. But these guys just can't get no respect with a Dow down 6K from its peak one year ago. That's how it goes.

In MLP land, double digit yields are routine, with many 15+%. Kinder Morgan (KMP), the largest, raised the quarterly distribution 3¢ yesterday to 1.02, the units are up modestly from the time of the announcement (but down about 20 from its peak a few months ago). Others have announced increases in the last couple of days. They are trying to fight back the lower unit prices with these increases, but the battle is a tough one. Yields of 12-15% are common.

Kinder Morgan shares rise after distribution boostAP

In these tough times, try to get rest over the weekend. It may be tough, but try. Long term thoughts for very smart investing are difficult to come by these days. But they will win out! Program those thoughts into your minds.

Panic has a firm grip on stocks

Just another in one of those unbelievable days for US stocks. Bigchart graph on the right show it all. Stocks opened down 700, then broke into the green now heading south once again trying to make it 8 straight loser days. No point dragging out all those boring statistics, they tell the same dreary story. However, gold pulled back to little changed.

There is not a shortage of glum news out there. Central bankers are having a tough time once again trying to figure out what coordinated means. Morgan Stanley (MS) & Goldman Sachs (GS), down 38% & 16% respectively, are facing downgrades (not helpful to the markets). If they have to sell, they've got a lot of stock to sell. General Electric (GE) released not very pretty earnings (as expected), hanging in there at 19 with a 6½% yield.

Below are my recent articles at SeekingAlpha:


With stocks on defense in the last hour, they may continue to sell off. Of course, shorts may get tired & have to buy back before going home in front of the weekend. This looks like it will be one of the worst weeks ever! Sadly, as I've said before, the bleeding does not look like it wants to stop.

Markets heading for 8th straight down day

Markets keep spinning out of control as stocks are get hammered worldwide.

Dow is down 20% in Oct, not this year, just a few days in Oct!! Markets all over the world are getting mauled with unrelenting selling. Last night Dow futures were down 260 to about 8.3K following the massive sell-off late in the day here. Tokyo opened down 900. Big company names including: Sony, Toshiba, Toyota, Honda, etc. were hammered. An insurance company failed (following other insurance failures) & the REIT index had it's worst day in history after an REIT failure. The Hong Kong market was down over 1K. Just a few weeks ago the index went below 21K, today it's in the 14Ks. Shanghai peaked a year ago at 6K+ (OK, it was overbought). Today it's under 2K. The Australia index fell a little below 5K a few weeks ago. Now it's 4K, the last week was the worst in 20 years. By the way, Australia is not as badly affected by worldwide trade. Speakings of declines, yesterday was the one year anniversary of Dow reaching a peak at 14.1K. After 365 days, it's fallen almost 6K. Even with the ugly reputation Oct has, this already must be the worst month in history. The S&P 500 is expected to have it's worst week since 1933 (shown below):


S&P 500 - last 5 days




I like MLPs & had buy points last week on targeted companies. Fortunately I never bought because they're about 10-15 points lower IN JUST ONE WEEK!

Following up on sinking Asian markets, Singapore & New Zealand officially recognized recessions in their economies. Be prepared for more announcements

Today Dow is down 300+, etc., etc., etc.

Central banks are injecting massive amounts of liquidity. Instead of helping, that's seen as bankers not knowing what they are doing. Hedge funds are selling a lot of stocks when investors redeem so they can buy buy gold & T-bills. This is really getting ugly.

Oil is down to 81, sounds good but selling signals expectations of much lower demand around the world . Gold is having a good day as many investors seek the flight to quality. Below is chart of 2 years for Oil showing how far it's come & gone:

CLX08.NYM....Crude Oil Nov 08....80.90 ...Down 5.69 (6.6%)


Oil - 2 years




I wanted to get this out quickly, I'll return shortly with more thoughts. Try to think long term thoughts. I know it's hard, but keep trying!

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Stocks down for 7th day straight

Shorts decided to go home before the close, leaving just a few buyers behind. However in the last hour, sellers returned taking the Dow down to a 190 loss (the last trades of the day dragged the Dow down 15 extra points in the loss), with decliners over advancers 2-1 & NAZ dropped 14. In just 3 days, this has already had a very long week, down 1100 so far.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX was down 6 to 209, at a new multi year low. The Alerian MLP index after being down 25, ended down only 1½ at 175.72. The Dow Jones REIT index was down 1½ to 193. These were up modestly prior to the close, but couldn't hang on to the gains.

Central banks are pulling out all stops, doing what they can to stem the loss of confidence in banking systems around the world. It looks like they have stopped the most serious bleeding, but there is still a lot of work that needs to be done.

•Fed, ECB, BOE Cut Rates in Unprecedented Response to Combat Credit Freeze
•
Ten-Year U.S. Swap Spreads Collapse, May Presage Easing in Credit Pressure
•
Paulson Says Regulators Will Use All `Authorities' to Stem Banking Crisis


Gold rose 25 on stock market weakness but oil declined to the lowest level in 10 months:

CLX08.NYM...Crude Oil Nov 08...88.95 ...Down 1.11 (1.2%)


Earnings watch is beginning. Earnings and guidance from companies should be the main drivers going forward for the markets. However, the credit mess is just plain overwhelming & probably will be center stage for much of the next few weeks, if not months! I will be off tomorrow, hope everybody is good!

Relief rally underway

It looks like the sellers decided to give up early, allowing a rebound in stock prices. At this writing, Dow is up 93, but decliners were over advancers 3-2 & NAZ is up 33. Stocks have clearly come off their lows, but dreary conditions remain in the markets.

All yield securities have been punished badly in recent weeks because of the "flight to safety" notion. Junk bond funds must have yields near 20% which discounts the end of the world and its aftermath. MLPs have been hammered hard. Even off the lows today, it's easy to find yields of 12% on MLPs.

This rally will probably continue through day's end, but macro economic problems are not going away soon. Q3 earnings are coming, expectations are not high & guidance going forward will probably not be good.

Financial meltdown continues

Asian stocks followed the US lead last night, getting punished badly. In their early hours of trading, Dow futures were trading up a tad (not worth mentioning normally but in today's world a tad is a pretty big deal). This AM final figures for Asian markets were in, they had one of their worst days ever. In response, central banks banks are pumping in money & doing what they can to be helpful. After more announcements this AM, Asian stock futures are trading up a couple percent but even that means little for markets down 40+% from recent peaks (Shanghai market is doing much worse!). Worries in Asia are less about bad loans, more about a sinking world economy which will buy less from Asia.

Early this AM, the Federal Reserve announced a ½ point rate cut. Swell! When banks aren't lending, a rate rate will only send a symbolic message. Initially Dow futures were up over 200 (after recording the third WORST 5 period in history), but that evaporated quickly. Below is ONE UGLY CHART for the last 2 weeks & the chart below shows how devastating the damage has been in the last 5 weeks:


Dow Jones Industrials -- 2 weeks





Dow Jones Industrials -- 3 months




Today, Dow is down 73, decliners over advancers 4-1 and NAZ pulled back to break even. The S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX is essentially even at 211 (I think Bloomberg TV said that's an 11 year low). I hate to drone on, but the Alerian MLP index is down 22 to 156, maybe heading for their starting point of 100 13 years ago. They dropped over 100 points in the last 5 weeks (eye popping for LOW BETA securities):


Alerian MLP Index -- 1996 to today




There are a few winners. Caterpillar (CAT), a Dow stock, is up over 2, but already fading off its high an hour ago. Oil is below 90 (remember when it was 147 a couple of months ago?) on worries about the global economic slowdown. Money from stocks sold has to go somewhere, a flight to safety in gold and US Treasuries. The 10 year T-bond yields 3.49% & the 90 day bill yield is below 1% annualized. Investors buying T-bills are paying a few pennies less than $100 for a Treasury bill to get $100 in 3 months.

CLX08.NYMCrude Oil Nov 08....88.46 ...Down 1.60 (1.78%)

GCV08.CMXGold Oct 08...904.00 ...Up 25.60 (2.91%)


The financial meltdown is bad, here are just a few of the ugly stories:

•Fed, ECB, BOE Cut Rates in Unprecedented Response to Combat Credit Freeze
•Treasury Will Offer More Debt Amid `Severe Dislocations' in Credit Markets
•California, States Are Seeking Inclusion in Fed's Commercial Paper Program
•
GE, American Express Reduce Commercial Paper Yields After Global Rate Cuts
•Iceland Drops Currency Defense, Scraps Glitnir Purchase as Crisis Deepens
•
Putin May Use Financial Meltdown to Boost Influence as Iceland Seeks Loan


Financial problems bleed thru to the rest of economy. Sep retail were disappointing, to say the least. Lousy back to school sales in Aug, followed by weak Sep sales are pointing to a very bad holiday sales season. One small example of poor retail sales, I see lower prices on HD TVs. Not scientific, but it looks like even this hot product is feeling a pinch which extends back to the Asian manufacturers.

Earnings is starting with lower Q4 earnings reported last night by Alcoa (AA), Dow stock. General Electric (GE) reports what will be disappointing earnings on Fri as they are getting hit hard by the financial crisis in the financial businesses. The general belief is that lower earnings will not just be reported by financials, but industrial & service companies will also feel a lot of pain.

My latest up (written a couple of days ago which seems like ancient history now) is linked below. Fundamental values remain, they are long term investments:

MLPs Still Attractive After Recent Selloff

We all have to keep a stiff upper lip, grin & bear it. Try to think long term thoughts.

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Stocks crash again to new lows

Chairman Bernanke gave a speech at lunch time trying to explain this new world. Dow dropped 200 while he spoke, more later on. Dow plunged to close at 508 (a 4-5 year low), decliners ahead of advancers 7-1 and NAZ declined 108. This is just another one of those ugly days we've gotten used to in the last couple of weeks. It's hard to remember but the day started with Bank of America (BAC) cutting their div in half, seems like just another back-burner story now! I guess this is what they call, "spinning out of control." I remember that 11.3K close for the Dow a couple of weeks ago, that was a big relief rally. So much for that:


Dow Jones Industrials -- 2 months





Dow Jones Industrials -- 4 years





S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX dropped 28 to 215, another yearly low (breaking the July 15 close level of 232!). The Alerian MLP Index dropped 13 to 177, a 4-5 year low (believe it or not, MLPs are low beta securities). The Dow Jones REIT Index fell 16 to 195, a 4 year low. There is no specific index for junk bond funds & their yields, I checked. But they have been in a super bear market for a few months. Their yields have climbed to record levels, 16+% is common producing a yield spread over the Treasury bond of a whopping 1300 basis points. Those investors & sellers are clearly listening to Chicken Little!

There was some good news in commodities. Oil was up 2¼ while gold rose only 16! That's about it for good news. Back to dreary reality.

Here are just a few of the headlines causing investors to throw in the towel.

•Bernanke Signals Fed Is Prepared to Cut Interest Rates as Crisis Deepens
•
U.S. Consumer Credit Drops $7.9 Billion, Most on Record, as Loans Dry Up
•
Brown's Government Said to Be Planning Capital Injection for British Banks
•FDIC May Let Banks Hold More Fannie, Freddie Debt to Free Cash for Lending


Enough of this dreary reality. Bottom line, financial problems aren't going to be solved anytime soon. Even when they are taken care of, we have to worry about restoring housing, autos, general retail sales, etc.

I still like MLPs, just wrote the latest update which SeekingAlpha should post shortly. These boring pipeline companies have gotten beaten up something fierce, especially in the recent weeks (hard to believe the brutal damage in just a few weeks). They own pipelines with expected lives of 50+ years, which require very little annual maintenance. Their high yields have gone thru the roof, 11+% is common today (and most is not taxed in the current year). Long term financing for capital expenditures is in place.

OK, going forward they will have to struggle harder. Q4 distributions to unit holders will be declared in the next couple of weeks (they all operate on the same schedule). Chances are many will leave distribution rates flat, trying to hang on to a little extra cash. However starting with an 11% yield, that's easier to take. Their assets (pipelines) are very hard assets which should allow them to get more capital even if they have to pay a little extra. These are long term investments with astronomical yields which will be looked on with fondness 5-10 years down the road.

Alcoa (AA), in the Dow, reported after hours lower earnings. Stock was up 1.22 after hours. Let's see if Asian markets sell off following the lead in the US.

Alcoa profit cut in half as aluminum prices fall