Tuesday, April 3, 2012

Markets slip despite favorable economic data

Dow pulled back 25, decliners over advancers 5-4 & NAZ rose 4 with Apple hitting a new record (see below).  The Financial Index was down 1½ to 213, still within striking distance of its multi months highs reached last week.  The MLP index was down a fraction in the 392s & the the REIT index fell a fraction in the 255s from yesterday's yearly high.  Junk bond funds & Treasuries were mixed.  Oil & gold drifted lower in uneventful trading.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


stock chart


Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.066%

U.S. 2-year

0.329%

U.S. 10-year

2.171%


CLK12.NYM...Crude Oil May 12...104.58 ....Down 0.65  (0.6%)

GCJ12.CMX....Gold Apr 12.........1,676.10 ....Down 1.40  (0.1%)


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U.S. Factory Orders Climbed 1.3% in February

Photo:  Bloomberg

Businesses ordered more machinery & equipment from US factories in Feb, a signal that many are investing in their companies despite the expiration of a tax credit.  Orders to factories increased 1.3% according to the Commerce Dept, offseting a similar decline in Jan.  Demand for core capital goods, a gauge of business investment plans, rose 1.7%, above the gov preliminary estimate last week & followed a steep drop in Jan.  Factory orders have been steadily rising since the recession ended nearly 3 years ago.  Orders totaled $468B in Feb, just 3.4% below the previous peak hit in 2008.  Orders for durable goods, expected to last at least 3 years, increased 2.4%, slightly higher than the estimate the gov made in last week's preliminary report.  Transportation orders rose a solid 3.9%.  Demand in the volatile commercial aircraft category increased 6% & orders for cars & auto parts edged up 0.2%.  Orders for nondurable goods rose 0.4% in Feb.  Another fairly good economic report.



  • <p>               In a Feb. 29, 2012 photo, Fiat 500 vehicles are displayed at the Golling Fiat dealership in Birmingham, Mich. Chrysler Group was the first automaker to report sales Tuesday, April 3, 2012. Its U.S. sales jumped 34 percent in March on strong sales of Fiat small cars and Chrysler sedans.    (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)
Photo:   Yahoo

The auto industry is riding the appeal of smaller cars to its best monthly performance in almost 4 years.  General Motors US sales rose 12% in Mar on solid demand for cars & small crossovers that achieve 30 miles per gallon or better on the highway.  Chrysler sales jumped 34% on strong sales of Fiat small cars & Chrysler sedans.  Sales at Ford rose 5% as sales of the Focus small car rose sharply  compared with a year ago.  With gas above $4, buyers are leaning toward new fuel-efficient compacts like the Chevrolet Cruze & sub-compacts such as the Honda (HMC) Fit to save money.  Also, incentives on trucks are good enough to lure buyers who want something bigger.  LMC Automotive predicts US sales of new cars & trucks reached 1.37M last month, up 6% from Mar of 2011 & the highest number since May 2008.  Analysts estimate sales could run at an annual rate of 14.1-14.5M, continuing the strong performance in Jan & Feb.  Some companies could break sales records.  Compact & subcompact models combined are expected to account for 23% of retail sales for Mar.  GM dropped 45¢ but Ford was up 22¢.

Chrysler’s Sales Rose 34% in March on Fiat Record; Ford Gains

General Motors Company (GM)


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Ford Motor Company (F)


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‘Apple Fever’ to Push Stock to $1,001

Photo:   Bloomberg

Apple, with the world’s largest market cap, will see its stock price reach $1001 within 12 months, lifted by growth in China & the debut of a new television product, according to an optimistic analyst.  The new target is the highest among the 45 analysts tracking AAPL & represents a 62% increase over the current price.  The gains will also be fueled by demand for the next iPhone.  He said China Mobile, the Asian country’s largest wireless network, will start carrying the iPhone within a year, adding millions of new potential customers.  He also believes that AAPL could become the first company to generate $1T in revenue, possibly in the next decade.  AAPL had sales of $108B in its last fiscal year.  However, a risk is the uncertainty over who will make critical decisions about future products (among other problems like work conditions in China).  Not surprisingly, the stock popped $11 to $629 for a another new record.

‘Apple Fever’ to Push Stock to $1,001, Topeka Capital Says

Apple Inc. (AAPL)


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This is turning out to be an uneventful day as the markets are waiting for earnings season to being next week.  Bulls should be disturbed that good data did not get a warmer response.  The most excitement comes from AAPL & its bullish call which is sending it to the stratosphere.  I view being #1 in market cap as a long term negative.  Companies such as Exxon Mobil (XOM), Microsoft (MSFT), Cisco (CSCO), General Electric (GE) & IBM (IBM) have all held that position in recent years.  And they are Dow stocks.

Dow Industrials


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Monday, April 2, 2012

Higher markets on strong manufacturing data

Dow gained 52, advancers over decliners 3-1 & NAZ jumped 28 propelled by a 19 gain for Apple (AAPL).  Bank stocks rose, taking the Financial index to the 214s, just below its 215 high last week.

The MLP index rose 1+ to the 393s & the REIT index was up 1+ to the 255s, a new yearly high.  Junk bond funds went higher as did Treasuries.  The price of oil is climbing on reports that US factories have cranked into a higher gear, suggesting greater demand for oil.  Gold went up $9, but hasn't done much in Mar.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


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Click below for the latest market update:


Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.061%

U.S. 2-year

0.325%

U.S. 10-year

2.203%

CLK12.NYM...Crude Oil May 12...105.22 ...Up 2.20  (2.1%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




General Motors will suspend production of the Chevrolet Volt for an extra week this summer as it tries to control the car's inventory.  But GM said sales picked up in Mar to a record of more than 2K, & it may cancel the extra week if sales remain strong.  Most auto factories close for 2 weeks starting in early Jul to get updated for the new model year but GM added a 3rd week at the Volt factory.  The plant was already closed from Mar 19-Apr 23, as the supply of Volts grew on dealer lots.  About 1300 workers at the factory have been idled.  Until Mar, sales of the car were disappointing.  Volts in its inventory at the end of Feb were enough to supply dealers for 154 days (a 60-day supply is considered optimal).  The Volt has a starting price of just under $40K, but it is eligible for a $7500 federal tax credit, as well as other credits in some states.  Auto retail sales for Mar are expected tomorrow.  GM rose 1.11.

GM adds week to Volt plant's usual summer closureAP

General Motors Company (GM)


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Avon Products Inc. Chief Executive Officer Andrea Jung
AVP CEO  Andrea Jung
Photo:   Bloomberg

Coty's offer to buy Avon Products thrust the perfume maker into the spotlight.  The $10B bid, rejected by AVP, could be raised, Coty said.  It has the backing of Germany's Benckiser group & Warren Buffett's favorite banker in its bid for the world's largest direct seller of cosmetics.  Its $800M purchase of Unilever's fragrance unit in 2005 made Coty the largest maker of perfumes & colognes in the world, giving it the licenses for prestige perfume brands such as Calvin Klein.  Coty offered $23.25 per share for AVP which was swiftly rejected.  AVP continues to search for a new CEO & deal with issues including US gov investigations into possible bribery in China & elsewhere.  AVP stockholders liked the news & the stock jumped 3.34 to 22.70 (17%).

Avon rejects $10 billion takeover bid from CotyReuter

Avon Products, Inc. (AVP)


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The price of gas at the pump is almost $3.93 & headed to top the record $4.11 reached in 2008.

National Unleaded Average
RegularMidPremiumDiesel85**E85
MPG/BTU
adjusted
price
Current Avg.$3.925$4.068$4.197$4.164$3.366$4.429
Yesterday Avg.$3.925$4.066$4.197$4.164$3.367$4.431
Week Ago Avg. $3.897$4.043$4.173$4.159$3.304$4.348
Month Ago Avg. $3.757$3.899$4.032$4.071$3.205$4.218
Year Ago Avg. $3.645$3.782$3.912$3.978$3.074$4.045

source:    AAA


Buyers returned at lunchtime to bid up the markets.  Late Fri, Groupon (GRPN), which went public last year, said it needed to slash its Q4 revenue outlook & raised its net loss view due to higher-than-expected refunds.  The stock plunged $3.11 (17%), but that did not disturb the markets.  Auto sales tomorrow should be more of the same fairly good news & the jobs report on Fri could be a plus for the markets.  However, the absolute number will be less important than whether it beats the estimates which are optimistic.  With return of the bulls, markets should have a good week.  But the high price of gas is a dark cloud moving over the stock  market.

Dow Industrials


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Mixed markets on mixed economic data

Dow slipped 3, advancers ahead of decliners 2-1 & NAZ rose 7.  Higher bank stocks pushed the Financial Index up a fraction in the 213s (close to its recent highs).

The MLP index fell 1+ to the 390s while the REIT index was essentially even at its yearly highs of 254.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries rose on mixed economic news. Oil & gold had modest changes.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.066%

U.S. 2-year

0.329%

U.S. 10-year

2.182%

CLK12.NYM...Crude Oil May 12...102.65 ...Down 0.37  (0.4%)

GCJ12.CMX....Gold Apr 12.........1,677.10 ...Up 7.80  (0.5%)



Get the latest daily market update below:



Euro-Region Unemployment Surges to 14-Year High, Nears Record

Photo:   Bloomberg

Unemployment in the Euro-region rose to the highest in more than 14 years & manufacturing contracted for an 8th month, adding to signs the economy slipped into a recession in Q1.  The jobless rate in the 17-nation euro area rose to 10.8% in Feb, up from 10.7% a month earlier, according to the EU statistics office.  That’s the highest since Jun 1997 & close to the record of 10.9%.  A manufacturing gauge, based on a survey of purchasing managers, fell to 47.7 in Mar from 49, according to Markit Economics.  Europe's economy has been mired in a fiscal crisis for more than 2 years, forcing companies to cut jobs & pushing economies from Spain to Ireland into recessions.  To help contain the crisis, finance ministers decided last week to boost the rescue-lending capacity to €800B ($1.1T), a figure that includes €300B already committed to Greece, Ireland & Portugal.  The ECB said that the firewall is “sufficient.”  In Germany, Europe’s largest economy, the jobless rate held at 5.7% in Feb based on a trend component while unemployment in France remained at 10%.  In Italy, the jobless rate rose to 9.3% from 9.1% & Spain had the highest rate at 23.6%.  Markit’s euro-area manufacturing gauge dropped to a 3- month low in Mar.  A German indicator fell to 48.4 from 50.2 the previous month, while in France the number slipped to 46.7 from 50.  Europe is an important market for US companies & multi national's have major investments in European subsidiaries.

Euro-Region Unemployment Surges to 14-Year High, Nears Record


The news is better in the US.  The Institute for Supply Management said that its index of manufacturing activity rose to 53.4 in Mar, up from 52.4 in the previous month. Readings above 50 indicate the sector is expanding.  A measure of employment in the sector rose to a 9 month high, a sign that factories are stepping up hiring & manufacturers are already a big source of job gains.  They've added more than 100K jobs in the past 3 months, about one-seventh of all net gains.  Businesses also ordered more durable goods in Feb, after a steep drop the previous month, a report last week showed.  Greater demand for machinery, computers, autos & aircraft drove the increase.  Orders for "core" capital goods, a key measure of business investment plans, also rose after falling in Jan by the most in a year (after an investment tax credit expired).  A recovery in auto sales has been a big reason for the strength in manufacturing.  Americans delayed auto purchases during the recession which led to sharp increases in car sales as the economy recovered.  More auto manufacturing boosts output in an array of industries, including steel, tire makers, & other parts suppliers.

Manufacturing in U.S. Expanded at a Faster Pace in March


However US builders trimmed activity for a 2nd straight month in Feb, pushing construction spending down by the largest amount in 7 months.  There was widespread weakness with spending on home building, office construction & gov projects all dropping.  The Commerce Dept reported that construction spending fell 1.1% in Feb after a drop of 0.8% in Jan which was revised down from an initial estimate of a decline of only 0.1%.  With the back-to-back declines, construction spending stood at an annual rate of $809B in Feb, just 6.1% above a low hit in Mar 2011 & about a third lower than the high hit during the housing boom.  The weakness last month came from a 1.5% drop in construction of single-family homes which offset a 2% rise in apartment construction.  Spending on non-residential construction projects dropped 1.6% following a 2.3% decline in Jan.  The Feb decline reflected weakness in office construction, hotels & shopping malls.  Gov construction dropped 1.7% to an annual rate of $282B with state & local building projects down 2.1% while spending by the federal gov rose 1.9%.  This data mutes other recent more favorable housing data.  The housing recovery is fragile & stumbling.

Construction Spending in U.S. Unexpectedly Declined in February


Q2 started off with a yawn from the markets as markets are back to spinning their wheels.  Dow had broken thru the 13K ceiling in a convincing fashion, but then the bulls went home.  This may reflect nervousness about earnings seasons, even though expectations are not high.  The big jobs report will be released on Fri, another unknown to worry about.

Dow Industrials


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