Thursday, June 28, 2012

Bank stocks lead a broad decline

Dow dropped 145, decliners over advancers 3-1 & NAZ fell 40.  Banks stocks were hit with selling, taking the Financial Index down 3 to the 189s.  The MLP index fell 3 to the 365s after yesterday's big rise & the REIT index was down almost 2 to the 251s.  Junk bond funds slipped & Treasuries rose as stocks retreated.  Oil & gold fell with gold near its lows for 2012 in the mid $1500s.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.076%

U.S. 2-year

0.301%

U.S. 10-year

1.575%

CLQ12.NYM...Crude Oil Aug 12...79.59 ....Down 0.62 (0.8%)

GCM12.CMX...Gold Jun 12......1,571.60 ...Down 2.40  (0.1%)




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Jobless Claims in U.S. Hovered Last Week Near This Year's High

Photo:   Bloomberg

The number of applications for unemployment benefits are hovering near the highest level of the year, showing little improvement in the US labor market.  Jobless claims decreased 6K to 386K last week according to the Labor Dept, in line with the forecast.  The prior week’s reading was revised up to 392K from 387K, matching an Apr figure as the steepest of 2012.  The 4-week moving average decreased slightly to 387K, which was the highest since Dec 3.  Concern about the fallout from the European debt mess & the so-called fiscal cliff that will face the US at the end of this year may prompt employers to keep payrolls lean. 

Jobless Claims in U.S. Hovered Last Week Near 2012 High


Consumer Confidence Climbs

Photo:   Bloomberg

US consumer spending & export growth were not as robust as previously believed in Q1, suggesting less momentum in the economy.  The Commerce Dept confirmed that the economy grew at a 1.9% annual pace in Q1, but the mix of growth was not encouraging.  Consumer spending, 70% of economic activity, increased at a 2.5% rate, rather than the previously reported 2.7% pace.  There are signs that consumer spending slowed in Q2, with retail sales falling in Apr & May.  Exports grew at a 4.2% rate instead of 7.2%.  The loss of momentum in both consumer spending & exports bodes ill for Q1 growth.  The Q2 growth rate is forecast around 2%, but with global demand cooling amid Europe's debt woes & an uncertain fiscal policy path at home forcing households to be cautious, even that estimate might be too optimistic.  Business inventories increased $54.4B, instead of $57.7B, adding only 0.1 percentage point to GDP growth compared with 0.21 percentage point in the previous estimate.  Excluding inventories, the economy grew at a revised 1.8% rate, rather than 1.7% & up from 1.1% in Q4. This data is drab.

U.S. Economy Grew 1.9% in First Quarter on Consumer Spending


The Supreme Court upheld Obamacare in a 5-4 vote.  But the eyes of traders are looking east towards Europe.  EU is having another big summit & there are growing worries that Spain & Italy could lose access to borrowing more funds without help from EU.  Little was expected from the summit & it looks like that low standard will not be met with disagreement among leading countries. Dow is up just 100 in Jun, a month the bulls were hoping would be a recovery month.

Dow Jones Industrials


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Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Markets gain on economic data and hopes for Chinese stimulus

Dow shot up 92, advancers continued almost 4-1 over decliners & NAZ was up 21.  The Financial Index rose 2+ to the 192s. The MLP index rose an enormous nearly 8 to the 368s & the REIT index was up 1 to 253.  Junk bond funds were higher while Treasuries eased back.  Oil rose for a 2nd day on signs the US economy is recovering, easing concern that demand from the world’s biggest crude-consuming country will decline.  Gold advanced for the 2nd time in 3 days on speculation that China may take more steps to boost economic growth.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


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Treasur yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.081%

U.S. 2-year

0.309%

U.S. 10-year

1.616%

CLQ12.NYM...Crude Oil Aug 12...80.16 ...Up 0.80 (1.0%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




German Chancellor Angela Merkel

Photo:   Bloomberg

Speaking 3 hours after Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy made a plea for help from tomorrow’s European summit, Chancellor Merkel said that euro bonds, euro bills & debt redemption funds are unconstitutional in Germany & economically “wrong and counterproductive.”  “I fear that at the summit there will be much too much talk about mutual liability and far too little about improved oversight and structural measures,” Merkel said  “Oversight and liability have to go hand in hand. There can only be joint liability when adequate oversight is ensured.”  She is under growing pressure from European & global counterparts to soften opposition to debt sharing in the euro area & do more to cut borrowing costs for Spain & Italy.  Rajoy, outlining his goals for the 2-day EU summit starting tomorrow, said that Spain can’t go on financing itself at current borrowing rates for long.  “The most important thing today is being able to finance ourselves in the markets, that’s the main issue,” Rajoy said.  “And on that point Spain, Italy and other countries are going to push for reasonable decisions to be made,” using the “available instruments.”  Spanish 10-year bond yields were little changed at 6.86% after jumping 24 basis points yesterday, nudging the important 7% level that forced other countries to call for bailouts. The summit looks like it is going nowhere.

Merkel Rebuffs Rajoy Plea, Shuts Door to Euro Area Bonds

  • Hugo Barra, director of product management of Google, unveils Nexus 7 tablet during Google I/O 2012 Conference at Moscone Center in San Francisco, California June 27, 2012. REUTERS/Stephen Lam
Photo:   Yahoo

Google took the wraps off its first tablet computer, looking to replicate its smartphone success in the tablet market despite tough competition from Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) & Amazon (AMZN).  The "Nexus 7" tablet, built by & co-branded with Asus, will begin selling for as low as $199 on the Google Play website & apps store from around mid-Jul.  At 7" & $199, the device takes aim initially at the Kindle model, which is considered a window into the trove of online content from AMZN.  GOOG can similarly use the Nexus 7 to connect to its own online offerings, which include video service YouTube & Google Play.  It will go after more cost-conscious users who might shun the loftier price tag of $499 and above for the iPad.  The Nexus will feature the new 4.1 "Jelly Bean" version of GOOG software, as well as a front-facing camera, a 1280x800 resolution screen, & an Nvidia Tegra 3 processor.  GOOG stock gained 4.62.

Google Unveils Nexus Tablet, Stepping Up Apple Challenge

Google (GOOG)


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General Mills projected full-year profit that trailed estimates amid increased marketing & investments in its US yogurt business.  EPS for fiscal 2013, including a decrease from its acquisition of Yoki Alimentos, will total $2.65, below the analyst projection of $2.76.  CEO Ken Powell has boosted marketing & raised prices to counter rising costs for raw ingredients such as wheat & sugar.  Increased pension expenses & a higher tax rate may also reduce annual earnings growth.  The company expects 2013 net sales to grow at a “mid- single-digit rate.”  Fiscal Q4 rose to 49¢ from 48¢ a year earlier.  Sales rose 12% to $4.07B, falling short of the $4.11B estimate.  Excluding some items, EPS totaled 60¢, just above the 59¢ estimate.  Sales in the US retail business rose 2.9% to $2.4B, driven by the Snacks & Small Planet Foods divisions. The stock fell 60¢.

General Mills Projects Full-Year Earnings That Trail Analysts’ Estimates

General Mills (GIS)


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Markets had a good day, but sure sure why.  The economic data was not all that great.  The euro debt mess drags on & the the big meeting in the next 2 days will not accomplish much (except for generating a lot of hot air).  The € is a proxy for what's going on in Europe & it slipped back to under $1.25 (near its $1.24 recent low).  Tomorrow the ruling on heath care should move markets, but it's unclear in which way.  Dow is up 225 in Jun, better than I figured but not all that great following heavy selling in May.  The big jobs report for Jun is coming in 8 days & expectations are low once again.  Then earnings season begins.

Dow Jones Industrials


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Markets rise on improved pending home sales

Dow rose 81, advancers over decliners almost 4-1 & NAZ was up18.  The Financial Index added 1+ to the 191s (4 below its monthly high & this has been a good month for the index).  The MLP index gained 3+ to the 364s & the REIT index was up 1 to 253.  Junk bond funds rose & Treasuries were about even.  Oil increased after the Energy Dept said stockpiles fell less than expected, dropping 133K barrels to 387M barrels.  Gold prices hardly moved.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.096%

U.S. 2-year

0.305%

U.S. 10-year

1.626%

CLQ12.NYM....Crude Oil Aug 12...80.24 ......Up 0.88  (1.1%)

GCM12.CMX...Gold Jun 12.......1,564.00 ...Down 10.00  (0.6%)



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  • Washers and dryers are seen on display at a store in New York July 28, 2010. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
Photo:   Yahoo

Demand for long-lasting US manufactured goods rebounded more than expected in May, but slowing global growth suggest the momentum might not be sustained.  Slower growth in China & a looming recession in the debt-crisis ridden euro zone have taken some of the shine off the domestic manufacturing sector, leaving the economy mired in a soft patch.  But the report from the Commerce Dept suggested the sector, which has shouldered the economy's recovery from the 2007-09 recession, was not falling apart.  Durable goods orders increased 1.1% after a revised 0.2% decrease in Apr, well above forecasts for a 0.4% increase.  Orders were lifted by a 2.7% jump in transportation equipment as aircraft bookings picked up & motor vehicles demand increased, though at a slower pace than in the prior month.  Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.4% after dropping 0.6% in Apr.  But May's strength, which came after 2 straight months of declines, could prove temporary.

Durable Goods Orders in U.S. Rise More Than Forecast


  • <p>               German Chancellor Angela Merkel arrives at the weekly cabinet meeting to discuss the country's budget 2013 at the chancellery in Berlin, Wednesday, June 27, 2012. German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Tuesday told a caucus meeting that there won't be a full shared debt liability in Europe "as long as I live," according to a lawmaker from Merkel's governing coalition. (AP Photo/Markus Schreiber)
Photo:   Yahoo

Chancellor Merkel has insisted that Europe can pool its debt only when govs' compliance with fiscal rules can be ensured.  She maintains that introducing so-called eurobonds now would be "economically wrong" after addressed the Parliament amid mounting pressure for her country to give up its fierce resistance to pooling debt.  She argues it makes no sense to share liability for debt before Europe has undergone a long process of integration & installed tough control mechanisms.  The chancellor said a quick move to eurobonds or other forms of joint liability would be constitutionally impossible in Germany and insisted that "supervision & liability must go hand in hand."  She said they could only be considered if & when "sufficient supervision is ensured."

Merkel Rebuffs Rajoy Plea, Shuts Door to Euro Area Bonds


Rate on 30-year mortgage down to record 3.88 pct.

Photo:   Yahoo

Contracts to purchase previously owned US homes matched a 2-year high in May, fueling optimism the housing market is poised for a recovery.  The National Association of Realtors said its Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed last month, rose 5.9% to 101.1, matched a 2-year high reached in Mar & the gain was the largest since Oct 2011.  Before Mar, the last time pending home sales were as high was Apr 2010 when buyers were rushing to beat the deadline for a home-buyer tax credit, which was about to expire, the NAR said.  "The housing market is clearly superior this year compared with the past four years," Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist said.  "We're on track to see a 9 to 10 percent improvement in total sales for 2012."  Forecasts expected signed contracts, which lead home sales by a month or 2, to rise 1.0% after a previously reported 5.5% drop in Apr.  Housing is making a comeback, but it's remains tentative.

Pending Sales of U.S. Homes Climbed More Than Forecast in May


Markets are meandering again, with an upward bias.  The lack of horrible news out of Europe is bringing out the buyers.  However big intl problems have not gone away.  There are hopes China will add stimulus to its economy.  The US housing data sounds good.  We are also going into the end of the month/qtr when anything is possible as money managers even out positions.  Dow is down 20 this week, up 200 in Jun but down 600 in Q2.

Dow Jones Industrials


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