Wednesday, November 3, 2021

Markets advanced to records as Fed starts tapering bond purchases

Dow rose 104, advancers over decliners about 2-1 & NAZ jumped 164.  Both averages are at new record levels.  The MLP index was off 1+ to 190 & the REIT index advanced 3+ to the 484s (at a record high).  Junk bond funds dipped lower & Treasuries were sold, increasing yields.  Oil tumbled 3+ to 80 & gold retreated 16 to 1772 (more on both below).

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The Federal Reserve announced it soon will begin reducing the pace of its monthly bond purchases, the first step towards pulling back on the massive amount of help it had been providing markets & the economy.  Tapering of bond purchases will start “later this month,” the policymaking FOMC said in its post-meeting statement.  The process will see reductions of $15B each month -- $10B in Treasuries & $5B in mortgage-backed securities – from the current $120B a month that the Fed is buying.  The committee said the move came “in light of the substantial further progress the economy has made toward the Committee’s goals since last December.”  The statement stressed that the Fed is not on a preset course & will make adjustments to the process if necessary.  “The Committee judges that similar reductions in the pace of net asset purchases will likely be appropriate each month, but it is prepared to adjust the pace of purchases if warranted by changes in the economic outlook,” the committee added.  The move was in line with market expectations following a series of Fed signals that it would begin winding down a program that accelerated in Mar 2020 as a response to the Covid pandemic.  Along with the move to taper, the Fed also altered its view on inflation only slightly, acknowledging that price increases have been more rapid & enduring than central bankers had forecast but still not backing off use of the controversial word “transitory.”  “Inflation is elevated, largely reflecting factors that are expected to be transitory,” the statement said.  “Supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy have contributed to sizable price increases in some sectors.”  The policymaking FOMC voted not to raise interest rates, a move also expected.

Fed to start tapering bond purchases later this month as it starts pulling back on pandemic aid

Ford's (F) US vehicle sales showed positive signs of recovery from an ongoing shortage of semiconductor chips that's wreaked havoc on the global automotive industry this year.  The automaker reported sales of 176K new vehicles in Oct, down 4% from a year ago but a far narrower loss than in prior months.  The sales mark Ford's best sales by volume since Apr & the first time since May that the company hasn’t reported a double-digit monthly loss compared with 2020.  “Through June of this year, Ford retail sales were up 10.7%. With constrained inventories and record turn rates in the second quarter, we have been working closely with our dealers gathering retail orders, which are up 16-fold over last year,” said Andrew Frick, Ford VP of US & Canada sales.  In another positive note, Ford said vehicle inventories, which have been at record lows due to the chip shortage, increased by 7K units from a month earlier to 243K cars & trucks.  The stock rose 63¢.
If you would like to learn more about Ford, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/F?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Ford’s U.S. sales continued to recover from chip shortage in October

Pfizer (PFE) CEO Albert Bourla said the US gov has ordered enough Covid-19 vaccine doses to cover every child in the country, as a Centers for Disease Control panel meets to decide whether to recommend authorization of the shots for kids ages 5-11.  “The U.S. government has placed orders with us that basically covers every kid in this country. So, the supply will be there and hopefully a lot of kids will benefit from it,” Bourla said.  Kids in the 5-11 age group will receive a smaller dose of the mRNA-based vaccines than adults, Bourla said & kids under 5 will receive an even smaller dose. Trials are still underway for children under the age of 5, but Bourla said he expects the Covid vaccine for that age group could obtain authorization in early 2022.  The stock lost 59¢.
If you would like to learn more about PFE, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/PFE?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Pfizer will have enough Covid vaccines available for every U.S. kid, CEO says

Gold settled lower after the ADP private sector jobs report saw employment increase more than expected, but then found some support after the Federal Reserve announced plans to taper its bond-buying program, as expected.  Gold for Dec fell $25 (1.4%) to settle at $1763 an ounce ahead of the Fed news.  In electronic trading after the annnouncement, prices were at $1765.  In a statement shortly after gold futures settled, the central bank said it will reduce the pace of bond purchases & is prepared to make adjustments in that pace if “warranted by changes in the economic outlook.”  The decision was widely expected.  Economists had said the Fed signaled it would slow the purchases at a pace of $15B per month — $10B in Treasuries & $5B in MBS — starting mid-month.  Gold prices had settled lower for the session following the better-than-expected ADP data.  Privately run US businesses created a fairly strong 571K new jobs in Oct.  The increase in hiring was larger than expected, the forecast was for a 395K gain.

Gold settles lower after good ADP jobs data, but finds support after expected Fed decision on tapering bond buying

Oil futures posted their lowest finish since Oct after official US gov data showed an increase in domestic crude inventories for a 2nd week in a row.  The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude inventories rose by 3.3M barrels last week.  The forecast expected a 300K-barrel climb.  The American Petroleum Institute reported a 3.6M-barrel increase.  West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for Dec fell $3.05 (3.6%) to settle at $80.86 a barrel.  Jan Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell $2.73 (3.2%) at $81.99 a barrel.  Based on the front-month contracts, WTI's settlement was the lowest settlement since Oct 13, while Brent crude saw the lowest finish since Oct 7.  EIA data showed crude stocks at the Cushing, Okla. Nymex delivery hub down by 900K barrels for the week, but total weekly domestic petroleum production climbed by 200K barrels to 11.5M barrels per day. 

Oil prices at lowest finish since October, with U.S. crude inventories up a second straight week

Investors liked what they hear from the Fed & bid stock prices higher.  The Dow climbed 250 after the announcement in the PM.   36,052   15,649

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