Friday, November 26, 2021

Markets plunge on fears of a new Covid variant

Dow tumbled an enormous 1036, decliners over advancers a massive 8-1 & NAZ sank 364.  The MLP index dropped 8+ to the 177s & the REIT index retreated an enormous 13+ to 474.  Junk bond funds were sold & Treasuries soared, taking the yield on the 10 Treasury down 15 basis points to under 1.5%.  Oil sank 9+ to the 69s & gold recovered 13 to 1797 while stocks were sold.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

CL=FCrude Oil82.02
 -0.94-1.1%









































GC=FGold   1,798.00
+13.70+0.8%































 

 




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The World Health Organization (WHO) will meet to discuss a new heavily-mutated variant of Covid-19.  The variant known as B.1.1.529 has been detected in small numbers in South Africa, WHO officials said, with reports of cases being found in Israel & Hong Kong.  South African scientist Tulio de Oliveira said in a media briefing held by the South Africa Dept of Health that the variant contains a “unique constellation” of more than 30 mutations to the spike protein, the component of the virus that binds to cells.  This is significantly more than those of the delta variant.  Many of these mutations are linked to increased antibody resistance, which may affect how the virus behaves with regard to vaccines, treatments & transmissibility, health officials have said.  In total, de Oliveira said the variant contains around 50 mutations.  The receptor binding domain (the part of the virus that first makes contact with cells) has 10 mutations, far greater than just 2 for the delta Covid variant, which spread rapidly earlier this year to become the dominant strain worldwide.  This level of mutation means it’s possible that it came from a single patient who could not clear the virus, giving it the chance to genetically evolve.  The same hypothesis was proposed for the alpha Covid variant.  Dr Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO's technical lead on Covid-19, said that scientists “don’t know very much about this yet” & that it would take a few weeks to gain a full picture of how the variant reacts to existing vaccines.

A heavily-mutated Covid variant emerges in southern Africa: Here’s what we know so far

Consumers shopping online have spent $76B in Nov so far, surpassing last year's $63B in revenue generated during the same period, according to the latest data from Adobe Analytics.  Shopping on mobile devices has accounted for $31B of revenue generated, a 21.7% year-over-year increase, while shopping on desktops accounted for the remaining $45B.  The data covers over a trillion visits to US retail sites, 100M SKUs & 18 product categories.  Online shopping for the grocery category peaked on Mon, up 172% over Sep's average.  Wine is outperforming beer by 124% versus 100% over Sep's average.  Additional categories showing strong season-to-date boosts are toys & video games, up 259% & 167% compared to Sep's average.  The biggest movers over the past week include jewelry & personal care products, up 79% & 89% over Sep's average.  As of Nov 24, out-of-stock messages have risen 9.7% compared to the average for the previous week.  For the month, out-of-stock messages are up 227% compared to prepandemic levels & 261% compared to 2 seasons ago.  The categories seeing the highest out-of-stock messages include electronics, groceries, appliances, home & garden products, & personal care products.  Curbside pickup remains popular among consumers, up 88% versus Nov 2019.  On Nov 24, curbside pickup was used in 22% of all online orders.  Adobe predicts consumers will spend $5.1-5.9B online on Thanksgiving Day as many retailrts have shut their doors in observance of the holiday.  "With Thanksgiving Day finally upon us, we can expect the online spending momentum to escalate during Cyber Week as price-conscious shoppers try to tap into best available discounts," Adobe Digital Insights lead analyst Vivek Pandya said.  "Despite a more inflationary shopping environment also marred by supply chain disruptions, consumers today can still expect to find great deals on seasonal categories such as toys, apparel, and computers."  For the full holiday shopping season, which runs from Nov 1- Dec 31, Adobe is predicting total online sales to hit a record $207B, a 10% year-over-year increase.  Cyber Monday will remain the biggest online shopping day of the year, with a record $11.3B in revenue expected to be generated, up 4% year over year, followed by Black Friday at $9.5B, up 5% year over year.

Thanksgiving Day consumers to spend up to $5.9B shopping online: Adobe

Top oil producers Saudi Arabia & Russia are considering pausing their planned efforts to ramp up oil production after the US & other energy-consuming countries said they would tap their national strategic petroleum reserves in an attempt to bring down gasoline prices.  A report said that leaders in Riyadh & Moscow have led the 14-member OPEC, along with other oil-producing countries, in coordinating output closely.  Other members of the cartel – such as the UAE – are not sure whether such a pause is necessary.  The move comes after Pres Biden on Tues ordered a record-setting 50M barrels of oil released from the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve in hopes of lowering gas prices, a decision made in coordination with other countries including India, the UK & China.  Established after a 1973-74 oil embargo by Arab members of OPEC, the reserve has been used in several emergencies, including in 2005 after Hurricane Katrina made landfall & destroyed swaths of the Gulf of Mexico oil infrastructure.  At the time, the Bush administration authorized the release of 20.8M barrels of crude oil to US producers.  "The fact is we always get through those spikes but we’re going to get through this one as well as hopefully faster," Biden said & added: "While our combined actions will not solve the problems of high gas prices overnight, it will make a difference. It will take time, but before long you should see the price of gas drop where you fill up your tank."  Proponents of releasing barrels from the emergency stockpile say that doing so would increase oil supplies & reduce prices at the pump, while also generating Bs in revenue for the federal gov.  Still, critics say that releasing emergency supplies is a short-term fix to a problem & does not actually increase the country's oil-production capabilities.

OPEC may pump the brakes on oil production after Biden's latest move

The scare about another Covid variant could not be ignored in the stock market.  Panicked investors are selling.  There might be a little bargain going into the shorted day closing, but major damage has been done the the bullish scenario which many have become accustomed to.  The Dow is back where it was in Apr, on the way up.  Making matters worse is oil plunged on worries about economic global activity if new lockdowns are in the offing.  For what it's worth, gas price at the pump will drop a good 25¢ per gallon when the oil coming from the ground today reaches gas stations in a week or 2.  Sorry this holiday weekend will be sadly remembered for a very long time

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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