Tuesday, November 2, 2021

Markets climb on earnings, while awaiting the Fed tomorrow

Dow shot up 138 (over 36K for another record), advancers over decliners 5-4 & NAZ added 53.  The MLP index was off chump change in the 192s & the REIT index rose 3+ to 481   Junk bond funds did little & Treasuries were bid higher.  Oil went below 84 after its recent rise & gold fell 7 to 1788 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Clorox (CLX), a Dividend Aristocrat, announced it will implement new price hikes for approximately 50% of its portfolio in Nov & 70% of its portfolio by the end of fiscal 2022 as it looks to mitigate inflationary headwinds.  "It is in relation to three things that we're really seeing," CEO Linda Rendle said.  "Pressure on commodities is one, and certainly additional pressure on resin, Hurricane Ida pushed out the resin curve by a month or two and so we're seeing continued impact there. Transportation continues to be a negative driver for us and we're seeing that continue throughout the remainder of the fiscal year. And although there hasn't been a big material impact directly, we're looking at labor closely given what we're seeing on pressures there."  The additional price increases come after Rendle warned in Apr that CLX was planning to raise prices for Glad products in Jul.  CFO Kevin Jacobsen said the company now expects about $350M in commodities & transportation cost inputs, up from previous guidance of about $300M & added that peak cost inputs will likely be seen in the next qtr, primarily driven by resin.   CLX reported adjusted EPS of $1.21 for the qtr & overall net sales of $1.8B, down approximately 6% year-over-year but up 21% from 2019.  Net sales for the company's health & wellness segment declined 8% year-over-year but was up 20% from 2019 & the household segment declined 12%-year-over-year but was up 27% from 2019.   Meanwhile, net sales in the lifestyle & intl segments increased by 4% & 1% year-over-year & 21% & 19% from 2019, respectively.  Rendle emphasized that CLX saw stronger-than-anticipated demand across the vast majority of its portfolio during fiscal Q1.  Looking ahead at the full year for fiscal 2022, CLX is forecasting a net sales decline 2-6% & adjusted EPS of $5.40-5.70, or a decrease of 21 26%.  In H2 of the fiscal year, CLX continues to expect sales to return to the lower end of its long-term sales growth target of 3-5%.  The stock rose 1.94.
If you would like to learn more about CLX, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/CLX?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Clorox plans more price hikes as transportation, commodity costs rise

Dept of Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said that America's supply chain disruptions are expected to continue into next year, claiming the bottleneck has been spurred, in part, by an unprecedented amount of demand brought on by Pres Biden's economic recovery.  When asked if Americans should prepare themselves for economc issues like the supply chain disruptions & inflation to get worse before they get better.  "Certainly a lot of the challenges that we’ve been experiencing this year will continue into next year," Buttigieg responded.  "Look, part of what is happening isn’t just the supply side, it’s the demand side. Demand is off the charts. Retail sales are through the roof. And if you think about those images of ships, for example, waiting at anchor on the West Coast – every one of those ships is full of record amounts of goods that Americans are buying because demand is up because income is up because the president has successfully guided this economy out of the teeth of a terrifying recession."  "Our supply chains can’t keep up," he continued.  "And of course, our supply chains, that’s a complicated system that is mostly in private hands, and rightly so. Our role is to be an honest broker, bring together all of the different the players there, secure commitments and get solutions that are going to make it easier."

Buttigieg says supply chain crisis ‘will continue into next year’

Under Armour (UA) shares soared, as strong fiscal Q3 earnings revealed the athletic apparel maker is seeing progress in improving its brand image under CEO Patrik Frisk.  With heightened demand for its sneakers & sweat-wicking clothing.  It now anticipates sales will rise 25% from 2020, topping its prior outlook.  The CEO said that the retailer has been leaning into team sports & marketing around the importance of mental strength, not just physical abilities.  EPS for the 3-month period ended Sep 30 rose to 24¢, compared with 9¢ a year earlier.  Excluding restructuring charges of $17M, EPS was 31¢, more than double the 15¢ expected.  In Apr 2020, Frisk announced a $550-600M restructuring plan.  The company now expects it will tally $525-575M in charges, as it looks to cut costs by the end of its fiscal first qtr.  Revenue rose 8% to $1.55B from $1.43B a year earlier.  The forecast anticipated sales of $1.48B.  Wholesale revenue rose 10% while direct-to-consumer sales were up 12%.  UA still derives more sales from wholesale partners, like department stores, but the company has been investing in its own stores & website to in a bid to bypass middlemen & sell more directly to customers.  CFO David Bergman said the company is “appropriately cautious” about its ability to meet consumer demand in the near term.  As of this week, nearly all factories that UA does business with, including those in Vietnam, are up & running.  For fiscal 2021, UA said EPS will reach about 74¢, on an adjusted basis, compared with its prior estimate of 50-52¢.  Revenue is estimated to rise about 25%, compared with its previous forecast for an increase in the low twenties.  The improved outlook assumes no additional shutdowns of manufacturing partners or other disruptions to the retail industry.  Analysts had been forecasting EPS of 55¢ on an adjusted basis on sales of $5.5B.  The stock jumped 2.64 (14%).
If you would like to learn more about UA, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/UA?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Under Armour soars as earnings beat prompts retailer to hike annual outlook

Gold futures settled lower, the first day of a 2-day meeting of the Federal Reserve that's expected to see policy makers lay out plans to begin reducing its monthly bond purchases.  Gold for Dec declined by $6 to settle at $1789 an ounce after posting a gain of 0.7% yesterday.  The market is anticipating that the Fed will announce its taper strategy tomorrow.  The Fed may be even laying the groundwork for rate hikes later next year, in keeping with hawkish shifts from central banks around the world in recent weeks & months.  Gold may struggle

Gold settles lower as traders await Fed policy decision

Oil futures made modest moves, with the US benchmark ending a bit lower & global prices little changed, as traders awaited a meeting of OPEC & their allies on Thurs amid rising pressure to boost output more than planned.  OPEC+ members appear to have fallen short of meeting existing production increases.  A survey published yesterday found that members of OPEC pumped 27.5M barrels a day in Oct, up just 190K barrels a day from the previous month & short of the 254K barrel-a-day rise permitted under the current OPEC+ agreement.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Dec fell 14¢ to settle at $83.91 a barrel after posting gains in each of the previous 3 sessions.  The US benchmark traded at a 7-year high last week.  Jan Brent crude the global benchmark, added a penny to settle at $84.72 a barrel.  OPEC+ is scheduled to meet tomorrow.  The group had previously agreed to unwind production cuts it put in place as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, lifting output in monthly increments of 400K barrels a day.

U.S. oil prices end lower, Brent little changed as traders await OPEC+ decision

After a quiet day of trading yesterday, earnings inspired some buying today although the advance/decline ratio was slightly negative.  Everybody is waiting for the Fed to speak tomorrow.  And, shown below, the Dow topped 36K.

Dow Jones Industrials








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