Dow went up only 17 (dropping 300 in the last hour), advancers barely ahead of decliners & NAZ slid back 202. The MLP index was about even at 181 & the REIT index fell 2 to the 478s. Junk bond funds continued weak & Treasuries were heavily sold, bringing the 10 year Treasury rate up a huge jump of 9 basis points to 1.63%. Oil was bid higher to the 76s & gold plunged 47 to 1804 (more on both below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
Existing home sales rose 0.8% in Oct to a seasonally adjusted rate of 6.34M
units, the fastest pace since Jan but down 5.8% year-over-year,
according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Single-family homes sales increased 1.3% month-over-month but declined
5.8% year-over-year to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.66M
in Oct, while existing condo & co-op sales fell 2.9%
month-over-month & 5.6% year-over-year to a seasonally adjusted annual
rate of 680K units. Properties typically remained on the market for 18 days in Oct,
up from 17 days in Sep & down from 21 days in Oct 2020. Approximately 82% of homes sold in Oct 2021 were on the market for
less than a month. Meanwhile, total housing inventory in Oct
fell 0.8% month-over-month & 12% year-over-year to 1.25M units. Unsold inventory, which is at a 2.4 month supply at the current sales
pace, remains unchanged from the previous month & is down from 2.5
months a year ago. The
median existing home price in Oct jumped 13.1% year-over-year to
$354K, marking a record 116 straight months of year-over-year
increases. The median existing single-family home price jumped 13.5%
year-over-year to $361K, while the existing condo price
rose 8.7% year-over-year to $297K. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun attributed the uptick in existing
home sales to continued job growth, a stock market at all-time highs &
rising, but still historically low mortgage rates are helping to drive
home sales. Thru the first 10 months of the year, home sales are up
11% from where they were last year & are 13% higher than they were in
the same stretch of 2019. "We're easily on pace for an annual
total of at least 6 million this year, which would be the best
performance in 15 years," Yun said. However, he warned
inflationary pressures, such as fast-rising rents & increasing
consumer prices, may have some prospective buyers seeking the protection
of a fixed, consistent mortgage payment. The average commitment rate
for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage was 3.07 in Oct, up
from 2.90% in Sep, according to Freddie Mac.
Existing home sales hit fastest pace since January
Levi Strauss (LEVI) CEO Chip Bergh said he's anticipating robust holiday sales this year
as Americans spend some of the money they built up during the
coronavirus pandemic. “The home balance sheet has probably not
been stronger than this in a real long time,” Bergh added. “We’re expecting a really strong holiday season, and it’s all being fueled by a super-strong consumer right now.” “About 40% of Americans have changed their waist size. Some up, some
down, but that drives you to have to go out and update your wardrobe.
That, combined with the new denim silhouette, which is really driving a
new denim cycle, is really the tailwind behind our business right now,”
he continued. The company's most recent quarterly results were released in early Oct, topping estimates on the top & bottom lines. The stock rose 62¢.
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club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/LEVI?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
Levi’s CEO expects strong holiday sales as Americans unleash pent-up demand
The largest group of doctors in the US warned a federal appeals court that halting Pres Biden's vaccine and testing requirements for private businesses would “severely and irreparably harm the public interest” as the highly transmissible delta strain of Covid-19 spreads. The American Medical Association (AMA), in a filing with the US Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, said Covid-19 poses a “grave danger to the public” that has “wreaked havoc in communities across the country,” killing more than 755K Americans, hospitalizing 3.25M people & infecting more than 46M. “COVID-19 presents a severe risk to public health in this Circuit and throughout the nation,” the doctors’ association said in the filing. “As of November 12, 2021, over 76,000 people have died from COVID-19 in the four states in this Circuit alone,” the group said. The AMA, arguing in support of Biden’s policy, told the court that transmission of Covid in the workplace has played a major role in spreading the virus, pointing to outbreaks in industries ranging from meat-processing & transportation to hospitality & construction. The association said Covid vaccines are safe & highly effective, & provide the most effective way to protect workers from infection. The AMA argued that vaccine requirements are “critical” to curb or eradicate infectious diseases, citing past vaccine mandates for measles & smallpox. “The more workers who get vaccinated, the closer we are to slowing the spread of the virus and creating a safer environment,” the association added. The AMA filed as a friend of the court to provide its expertise, saying it has “an interest in providing evidence-based guidance on public health issues.”
American Medical Association warns halting Biden Covid vaccine mandate will cause severe harm
Gold futures skidded, registering the steepest daily
decline in more than 3 months, as a rally in Treasury yields & a
strengthening $ buffeted precious metals to kick off a
holiday-shortened Thanksgiving week. US markets will be closed on
Thurs & will end early the Friday
after the holiday. The slump for gold followed the White House's announcement that Pres Biden has nominated Jerome
Powell to a 2nd 4-year term as Fed chair & named Fed Gov
Lael Brainard to serve as the central bank's vice chair. The $ measured by the US ICE Doll,
rose 0.5%, hanging near the loftiest level since the
summer of 2020, after the nominations. Meanwhile, yields for gov
debt pushed higher & prices extended a drop, drawing away some demand
from the nonyielding commodity that often competes against it for
safe-haven bids. The 10-year Treasury note rate was at around 1.62%, compared with 1.535% on Fri. Shaking off COVID-related unrest in Europe, Dec traded down $45 (2.4%) to settle at $1806 an ounce,
marking the sharpest percentage drop since Aug 6, while pushing the
precious metal to the lowest level since Nov 4. Gold
booked a 3rd straight decline, matching the longest such skid since
the period ended Oct 11. Strategists noted the bullion
collapsed the technical values at around $1835, viewed as a key
support threshold for the metal, which may have helped to accelerate today's selling. Analysts said that the pick of Powell helped to maintain the idea of
monetary-policy continuity for markets & suggested that the central
bank will continue a path of tapering that is likely to eventually lead
to higher interest rates, a headwind for gold in the longer term. The moves for gold also come after a weekend of protests in Europe that
turned violent at times over increasing COVID-19 restrictions across the
continent.
Oil futures ended higher, lifted after a report said the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries & its allies could rethink plans to continue with modest output increases if the US & other energy-consuming countries follow thru on plans to release crude from strategic reserves. Meanwhile, Pres Joe Biden could announce a release from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve alongside other countries as early as tomorrow. West Texas Intermediate crude for Jan rose 81¢ (1.1%) to close at $76.75 a barrel. Jan Brent crude the global benchmark, settled 81¢ higher, up 1%, at $79.70 a barrel. Both benchmarks fell sharply last week, logging a 4th straight week of declines to end at 7-week lows. Comments by OPEC+ delegates, said that it wasn't clear that even modest production increases planned by the group would go ahead. OPEC+ has been raising output quotas by 400K barrels a day in monthly increments. OPEC+ is slated to meet on Dec 2. Crude was initially pressured as worries mounted over a rise in COVID-19 cases in Europe, which have resulted in renewed restrictions on activity. A full lockdown took effect in Austria today, while protests against tightened COVID restrictions in the Netherlands & Belgium turned violent over the weekend. Worries were underlined after German Chancellor Angela Merkel today was reported to have told senior members of her Christian Democratic Union party that the COVID situation was “highly dramatic” & “worse than anything Germany has experienced so far.” Meanwhile, Japanese officials were working on ways to get around restrictions on releasing crude from the country's strategic reserve, according to a news report. Oil has seen pressure as the Biden administration has coordinated with China, Japan & other oil-consuming countries on a coordinated release of crude in the effort to tackle higher prices. Crude can be released from Japan's reserve only during periods of shortage or natural disaster. But officials ae considering a move that would see Japan release crude above the reserve's minimum threshold as a potential workaround.
Oil bounces as reports indicate Biden, OPEC+ near showdown over crude reserves
Investors got nervous after they saw Treasury interest rates climb. Stock selling was significant, especially in the last hour of trading. Higher interest rates will negatively affect all businesses & consumer borrowings. Nov continues to be a gloomy month for the stock stock market.
Dow Jones Industrials
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