Friday, March 4, 2022

Markets fall as Ukraine overshadows a strong jobs report

Dow sank 491, decliners over advancers 4-1 & NAZ dropped 291.  The MLP index fell 1 to 207 & the REIT index was off 2+ to 460.  Junk bond funds declined along with stocks & Treasuries were heavily purchased again.  Oil jumped 4 to the 111s & gold climbed 28 to 1964.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

CL=FCrude Oil113.38
  +5.71+5.3%


















GC=FGold      1,956.60
+20.70+1.1%











 

 




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The Feb jobs showed a surprising gain of 678K positions blowing past the 400K estimates.  "Job growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, health care, and construction" as noted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  The Unemployment rate fell to 3.8%, the lowest number since the coronavirus hit the US & down from 4.0% in Jan.  Earlier this week, ADP's latest national employment report – which is seen as a precursor to the federal gov's report – showed employers added 475K jobs in Feb.  That's well more than the 388K expected.  In Jan, the forecast was for 150K jobs gained, an estimate that was blown out of the water when last month's report showed 467K new nonfarm jobs added to payrolls.  The labor participation rate stood at 62.3% inline with the prior month as Americans return to the workforce after a mass exodus brought on by the coronavirus but have yet to reach prepandemic levels.  Open jobs in the US sat at a near-record 10.9M in Jan.  Average hourly earnings rose by 5.1% year over year for Feb, up from 5.7% the month before.  But surging inflation – which hit a 40-year high of 7.5% year over year in Jan – has erased those would-be gains for workers.

February jobs report blows past economists' estimates

Oil prices rose as the Russia's invasion of Ukraine escalated, causing a Ukrainian nuclear power plant, Europe's largest, to catch fire after an attack from Russian troops.  US benchmark crude was up $1.34 to $109.10 per barre after losing $2.93 to $107.67 per barrel yesterday.  Brent crude, the intl price standard, added 86¢ to $111.32.  Trading activity for Russian crude oil appears frozen as buyers are hesitant in making purchases because of the sanctions.  Prices ended yesterday's trading session as investors focused on the revival of the Iran nuclear deal, which would boost Iranian oil exports & ease tight global supplies.  Oil prices are set to post their strongest weekly gains since the middle of 2020, with US crude up more than 22% & Brent at 16% after hitting their highest in a decade this week.

Oil prices rise as escalating Ukraine conflict raises supply concerns

Car factories idled, beer stopped flowing, furniture & fashion orders ceased, & energy companies fled oil & gas projects.  Russia's invasion of Ukraine has thrown business plans into disarray & forced a growing number of the world's best known brands to pull out of a country that’s become a global outcast as companies seek to maintain their reputations & live up to corp responsibility standards.  Investors were drawn to Russia in search of lucrative profits they thought were worth the geopolitical risks.  That calculation has changed after Russia's war triggered a wave of global sanctions & export restrictions that have thrown its economy into turmoil & disrupted the operations of multinational corps there.  "You basically have Russia becoming a commercial pariah," said economist Mary Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for Intl Economics in DC.  "Pretty much no company, no multinational, wants to be caught on the wrong side of U.S. and Western sanctions."  They're also expressing concern about the plight of Ukrainians, showing how they want to be seen coming out on the right side of history.  Complicating companies’ push to flee is an order from Moscow temporarily restricting foreign investors from selling Russian assets.  Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said Tues that it would help investors make "a considered decision" rather than succumb to the political pressure of sanctions.  It's not clear how that may affect corp efforts to exit Russia.  Oil & gas companies, already feeling the heat from climate activists to invest in renewable energy, were among the companies that announced the most rapid and dramatic exits.

Russian attacks trigger an exodus of business, sinking economy

Russia has lost just about all its friends.  Investors are strongly risk averse while the war in Ukraine drags on.  Stocks are being sold & that money is going into safe haven investments such as gold & Treasuries.  The rally for oil continues as production is not keeping up with demand.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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