Friday, March 11, 2022

Markets fall on war worries and drop in consumer confidence

Dow slipped lower, off 229 (session low), decliners over advancers 5-2 & NAZ declined 270.  The MLP index dropped 6+ to the 203s & the REIT index was off 3+ to the 459s.  Junk bond funds continued weak & Treasuries saw a little buying, keeping the yield on the 10 year Treasury at 2%.  Oil gained 3+ to the 109s & gold fell 11 to 1899 (more on both below).

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Pres Biden called for an end to normal trade relations with Russia & said the US is banning import of Russian seafood, vodka & diamonds.  Revoking Russia's "most favored nation" status will allow for increased tariffs on imports from the country in addition to the crushing sanctions already imposed as a consequence of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.  But it must be done by Congress.   Biden highlighted bipartisan support for the move in an announcement in conjunction with other G7 & EU leader.  "Putin is an aggressor, he is the aggressor, and Putin must pay the price," Biden said.  The G7 will also seek to cut off Russia from organizations like the Intl Monetary Fund (IMF) & the World Bank, Biden said.  "He cannot pursue a war that threatens … the very foundation of international peace and stability and ask for financial help from the international community," he added.  Russia's economy is struggling under the weight of the sanctions & a deep recession is predicted in the country, according to the IMF.

Biden, allies make major move to end special trade status with Russia

US consumer sentiment fell more than expected in early Mar as gasoline prices surged to a record high in the aftermath of Russia's war against Ukraine, boosting one-year inflation expectations to the highest level since 1981.  The 3rd straight monthly decline reported by the University of Michigan pushed consumer sentiment to its lowest level in nearly 11 years.  It said 24% of respondents "spontaneously mentioned the Ukraine invasion in response to questions about the economic outlook."  The preliminary consumer sentiment index dropped to 59.7 in the first ½ of this month, the lowest reading since 2011, from a final reading of 62.8 in Feb.  The forecast called for the index falling to 61.4.  The survey places more emphasis on gasoline prices & the stock market.  The Conference Board's consumer confidence index, which puts more weight on the labor market, remains well above its COVID-19 pandemic lows.  Economists said the continued slump in the University of Michigan's sentiment index was overdone relative to fundamentals & they expected the economy to continue growing.  The labor market is churning out jobs at a rapid pace, the unemployment rate is at a 2-year low, wages are rising & there were 11.3M job openings at the end of Jan.  Consumers have amassed more than $2T in excess savings.

U.S. consumer sentiment near 11-year low; near-term

Pfizer (PFE) plans to submit data to the Food & Drug Administration for a 4th Covid shot soon & it's working on a vaccine that protects against all coronavirus variants, CEO Albert Bourla said.  “I think we’re going to submit to FDA a significant progress of data about the need for a fourth dose, and they need to make their own conclusions, of course, and then CDC also. … It’s clear that there is a need in an environment of omicron to boost the immune response,” Bourla added.  “We are making a vaccine that covers omicron and all the other variants. There are so much trials that are going right now, and a lot of them we’ll start reading by the end of the month,” he continued later, adding that he's optimistic from the preliminary data he's seen so for.  His comments come exactly 2 years after Covid was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization & the global economy ground to a halt.  The stock rose 1.07.
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Pfizer planning to submit data on 4th Covid shot soon, while working on vaccine for all variants

Oil futures rose, as traders weighed ongoing worries about global energy supplies against a move by the US to boost pressure on Russia to halt its assault on Ukraine.  The US & its intl partners will move to revoke Russia’s trade status, which would lead to higher tariffs on Russian goods.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Apr rose $3.31 (3.1%) to settle at $109.33 a barrel.  For the week, however, prices based on the front-month contract lost 5.5%

Oil futures end higher, but post a loss for the week as Russia-Ukraine conflict remains fluid

Gold futures settled lower but posted a gain for the week, as Russian Pres Vladimir Putin implied progress in talks on the conflict in Ukraine & a US move to revoke Moscow's special trade status tugged at the precious metal's appeal as an investment safe haven.  “There are certain positive shifts, negotiators on our side tell me,” Putin said in a meeting with Alexander Lukashenko, the pres of Belarus.  His remarks come even as Moscow's siege of Kyiv enters a 3rd week & has widened its bombing campaign into western Ukraine.  Gold prices pared their losses following news that the US & its intl partners will move to revoke Russia’s “most favored nation” trade status, which would lead to higher tariffs on Russian goods.  Apr gold fell $15 (0.8%) to settle at $1985 an ounce, after gaining 0.6% yesterday.  Today's downdraft comes after futures settled Tues at $2043, their highest in about 19 months—teasing a record settlement high of $2069 from Aug 6, 2020.  Prices for the most-active contract climbed 0.9% for the week.  Overall, analysts are anticipating that gold will maintain a bullish, albeit volatile, trend, as rising US & EU inflation continues to weigh on investors' minds & fears grow that price pressures haven't yet peaked.

Gold ends lower for the session, up for the week as investors weigh Ukraine-Russia conflict developments

The Dow began the day with buying on hopes for good word on ending the war.  But there were no  comments & enthusiasm faded during the day with the Dow finishing at its lows.  The bulls remain in hiding as the the Dow wallows where it was almost one year ago.  This week, with all its gyrations, Dow finished down about 700 from a very depressed level last week.

Dow Jones Industrials








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