Tuesday, March 29, 2022

Markets rally on hopes for Ukraiune - Russia talks

Dow went up 226, advancers over decliners better than 3-1 & NAZ added 150.  The MLP index stayed close to 209 & the REIT index gained 7 to the 483s.  Junk bond funds were higher following recent selling & Treasuries are being purchased today.  Oil was off another 3+ to the 102s & gold plunged 31 to 1908.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

CL=FCrude Oil101.48
  -4.48-4.2%






























GC=FGold   1,910.70
-29.10-1.5%



































 

 




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The CEO of a food truck in Atlanta noted that the "ridiculously high" gas prices are impacting his bottom line.  Black Market BBQ CEO Jon German revealed what has been the biggest impact on his business as a result of the current economic climate, saying that the "absurdly high" gas prices are "really affecting our growth."  "It’s providing us a more difficult time in expanding our capabilities and expanding into other things," he said.  "We have our food trailer, we do catering, we bottle our own barbecue sauce, but I want to break out into doing concessions and doing other things and as of right now, I just can’t do that and it’s basically because of the ridiculously high gas prices we have right now."  The national average for gas was $4.25 yesterday, slightly higher than the day before & 64¢ higher than the month before.  Rep Gov. Brian Kemp signed a law suspending Georgia's motor fuel tax thru the end of May in an attempt to alleviate the inflationary pressure at the pump.  The gasoline price in the state includes a federal tax of 18.4¢ per gallon & a state tax of 29.1¢ per gallon.  Additionally, some cities & counties charge taxes.  Federal taxes on diesel fuel are 24.4¢ per gallon, while Georgia's tax on diesel is 32.6¢ per gallon.

BOTTOM OF THE BARREL: Soaring gas prices are hurting businesses — with no end in sight

After cooling off ever so slightly toward the end of last year, home price gains reaccelerated in Jan.  Home prices nationally rose 19.2% year over year in Jan, up from 18.9% in Dec, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index.  The 10-city composite annual increase was 17.5%, up from 17.1% in the previous month.  The 20-city composite rose 19.1%, up from 18.6% in Dec.  Phoenix, Tampa, Florida & Miami saw the biggest annual gains at 32.6%, 30.8% & 28.1%, respectively.  16 of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ended in Jan 2022 versus the year ended in Dec 2021.  DC, Minneapolis & Chicago saw the smallest annual gains, although they were all still up double digits from a year ago.   Tight supply & strong demand appear to be outweighing rising mortgage rates, which would usually take some of the heat out of housing.  While the index is a 3-month running average, mortgage rates began to climb in Jan.  The average rate on the 30-year fixed ended 2021 at around 3.25% & ended Jan at 3.68% according to Mortgage News Daily.  It is now flirting with 5%.  Higher mortgage rates have already started to affect sales in the first months of the year.  Pending home sales, which measure signed contracts on existing homes, have now fallen for 4 straight months, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Home prices heated up in January, with huge gains in Arizona and Florida, says S&P Case-Shiller

Manufacturing, one of the main drivers of China's growth since the pandemic began, saw slower growth in q1, according to an independent survey by China Beige Book.  It's another sign that China's economy may not benefit as much from overseas demand as Covid control policies diverge.  China's use of swift lockdowns in early 2020 helped the country quickly reopen businesses while much of the world struggled to contain the virus & resume normal business activity.  However, more countries have adopted a “live with Covid” strategy in the last several months.  China has generally maintained a “zero-Covid” policy, although policymakers have tried targeted measures to keep ports or large factories running.  “Until recently, the China-during-Covid story has been heavy reliance on production and exports, even as consumers largely stayed home,” US-based China Beige Book said in a report.  “This quarter highlights the potential limits of that reliance.”  The firm surveyed more than 4300 businesses in China, mostly in the month thru Mar 16. The report is an early look at Q1, which isn't over yet, & only included proprietary trend analysis.  Retail businesses saw double-digit year-on-year declines in the rate of revenue & profit growth, as well as a slowdown in hiring, the China Beige Book survey found.  “Manufacturing is clearly in better shape but revenue, profit, and new domestic order growth are all slower than Q1-2021,” the report added.  Official figures from the National Bureau of Statistics of China released earlier this month showed surprisingly upbeat data for Jan & Feb, with faster-than-expected growth in retail sales, industrial production & fixed asset investment.

China’s factories were hit harder this quarter than last year as Covid drags on, survey says

Stock buyers are encouraged by what is seen as encouraging signs from talks between Russia & Ukraine.  Money from gold sales is being put into the stock mark (i.e. riskier investments),  Lower oil prices also sounds good to investors.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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