Dow dropped 112, decliners over advancers about 2-1 & NAZ was off 125. The MLP index went up 4+ to 210 & the REIT index rose 2 to 463. Junk bond funds continued weak & Treasuries declined with the 10 year Treasury yielding 2%. Oil fell 2+ to the 106s & gold jumped 12 to 2001 (more on both below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
Applications for unemployment insurance inched up higher than expected in the latest weekly data but extended a broader trend downward after surging COVID-19 infections earlier this winter briefly disrupted the labor market’s recovery to start the year. The Labor Dept reported initial jobless claims for last week were 227K vs 217K expected & an upwardly revised 216K during prior week. Continuing claims were 1.494M vs 1.45M expected & an downwardly revised 1.469M during prior week. Filings for unemployment insurance have mostly fallen lower after a temporary surge mid-Jan to a print of nearly 300K, following a rush of US workers applying for benefits amid disruptions from the Omicron coronavirus variant & workforce after the seasonal hiring increase at the end of 2021. Although COVID's impact on the labor market have appeared to ease, the economic toll of the war in Eastern Europe may have remains unclear.
Jobless claims preview: Another 227,000 individuals filed
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has killed at least 549 civilians, 41 of whom were children, the United Nations said, noting the actual death toll is believed to be “considerably higher.” At least an additional 957 civilians have been injured since the attack began 2 weeks ago, according to the UN's Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights. “Most of the civilian casualties recorded were caused by the use of explosive weapons with a wide impact area, including shelling from heavy artillery and multi-launch rocket systems, and missile and airstrikes,” that office continued. “OHCHR believes that the actual figures are considerably higher, especially in government-controlled territory and especially in recent days,” the office said. The report said that getting information from locations where “intense hostilities have been going on has been delayed.” Many reports “are still pending corroboration,” the OHCHR added. “This concerns, for example, the towns of Volnovakha, Mariupol, Izium where there are allegations of hundreds of civilian casualties,” the office said, noting that its report did not include casualty statistics from those areas. The report noted that the Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights has said that 61 children have been killed & 100 injured.
Russian invasion has killed 549 civilians in Ukraine, 41 of them kids, UN says
Americans got considerably richer as 2021 came to a close, thanks to a nice boost from their stock market holdings & an increase in real estate values, the Federal Reserve reported. Household net worth in Q4 eclipsed $150T for the first time, rising at a healthy 8.2% pace from the previous qtr for the fastest growth period since Q1-2020. The increase came thanks to a combined $4T increase in holdings from corp equities & housing. The total level — $150T — represented a 14.4% increase from a year ago. The boost came with US economic growth running at its fastest pace since 1984 & the stock market enjoying another robust year. The move came despite a rapid increase in debt at all levels. Total nonfinancial debt came to $65T, including $18T at the household level, $18.5T in the business world & $28.6T from gov. Each category saw substantial rises. Household debt jumped at an 8% annual rate, owing to a 6.9% rise in consumer credit & an 8% jump in mortgages. Nonfinancial business debt increased at a 6.7% clip, while federal gov debt leaped by 10.8% after declining 1.3% in Q3. The first qtr numbers for 2022 are unlikely to be as flattering for net worth. GDP is expected to gain little if anything in Q1 & the stock market has stumbled out of the gate, pressured by runaway inflation & a geopolitical & humanitarian crisis in Ukraine. Stocks are in correction mode & remain volatile, with interest rate increases ahead likely to slow growth further.
Household wealth tops $150 trillion for the first time despite surge in debt
Russia's foreign minister struck a defiant tone in the face of intensifying economic sanctions, saying that his country would recover from the crisis with a “full bill of health” & vowing never again to rely on Western partners. Sergey Lavrov said that Russia could handle its economy by itself as the pariah state becomes increasingly isolated by international powers seeking to stymie Pres Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine. “Regarding our economic problems, we’ll sort them out.” Lavrov noted that Russia has at various other points handled periods of economic isolation & difficulty. The longtime Russian minister added that he was no longer under any illusion that the West could be trusted, accusing it of betrayal. “I assure you: We will come out of this crisis with a full bill of psychological health and a full bill of health regarding our awareness. We will not be under the slightest illusion that the West could be a reliable partner,” Lavrov added. “We will do everything so as never, in any way, to be dependent on the West in those areas of our life which have a decisive significance for our people,” he continued. It is unclear how Russia seeks to independently operate its economy moving forward. The Russian economy has fallen to its knees in the 2 weeks since the start of the Ukraine war as Western allies have sought economic means of pressuring Putin to end the conflict.
Russia will recover from sanctions with a ‘full bill of health,’ says Lavrov
The US budget deficit is set to fall sharply this year after the end of most government stimulus. The US posted a budget deficit of $217B in Feb vs. a shortfall of $311B in the same month last year, reflecting slower growth in gov debt after the end of pandemic-induced federal stimulus. Spending in Feb totaled $506B, down from $559B a year earlier, the Treasury Dept reported. The amount of taxes collected rose to $290B from $248B a year ago For the first 5 months of the current fiscal year, the deficit was $476B compared to $1.01T last year. The fiscal year is Oct 1- Sep 30. The deficit is on track to fall sharply because of the end of the massive federal stimulus. The gov spent Ts in 2020 & 2021 to prop up the economy during the worst of the pandemic, but most of the stimulus has faded. The gross national debt recently surpassed $30T for the first time. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has said that the US budget outlook is unsustainable over the long run, but the deficit has been rising for years & there's little sign DC willing to sharply reduce it. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose above 2% again after the latest inflation report. The cost of living in the US has jumped 7.9% in the past year!!
U.S. budget deficit shrinks to $217 billion in February as end of stimulus slows the growth in debt
Gold futures climbed back above the key $2000 mark as Russia ramped up its attack on Ukraine & a reading on the annual US inflation rate climbed to a 40-year high. Strength in prices for the yellow metal comes as the some analysts expect the escalation in hostilities in Eastern Europe to result in monetary policy makers advocating for a slower pace of interest rate increases in the region, as the eurozone contends with economic uncertainties tied to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Apr gold rose $12 (0.6%) to settle at $2000 following a 2.7% decline a day ago. Prices on Tues settled at $2043, their highest in 19 months -- teasing a record settlement high of $2069 from Aug 2020. The ECB left key interest rates unchanged, but announced plans to speed up its asset-purchasing program exit. ECB Pres Christine Lagarde said the Russian invasion of Ukraine will "negatively affect the euro-area economy." The ECB's policy update comes ahead of the Federal Reserve's expected decision to lift interest rates at the conclusion of its 2-day policy gathering on Wed.
Gold back above $2,000 on Russia-Ukraine war, as annual U.S. inflation rate climbs to a 40-year high
Oil futures declined for a 2nd straight session, with prices giving up earlier gains in volatile trading against a backdrop of changing headlines on the Russia-Ukraine war. West Texas Intermediate crude for Apr delivery fell $2.68 (2.5%) to settle at $106.02 after losing just over 12% yesterday. The settlement was the lowest for a front-month contract since Mar 1.
U.S. oil futures post a second straight session decline
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