Showing posts with label Oracle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Oracle. Show all posts

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Markets slump on disappointing earnings from Oracle

Dow fell 75, decliners ahead of advancers 2-1 & NAZ fell a big 50 on unsatisfactory earnings from Oracle.  The Financial Index was down 1+ to 170.

The MLP index rose 1 to 379 while the REIT index fell 1 to 228.  Junk bond funds were mixed, but marginally higher YTD, & Treasuries were flattish.  Oil extended gains after a gov report showed a decline in inventories almost 5 times as large as expected & gold is doing little.

AMZ   Alerian MLP Index



DJR   Dow Jones Equity REIT Index



Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.000%

U.S. 2-year

0.259%

U.S. 10-year

1.934%

CLG12.NYM...Crude Oil Feb 12...98.17 ...Up 0.93 (1.0%)

GCZ11.CMX...Gold Dec 11...1,608.40 ...Down 7.20  (0.5%)

Get the latest market update below:



ECB Lends Banks $645B, Exceeding Forecast

Photo:   Bloomberg

The ECB loaned a massive €489B ($639B) to 523 banks for an exceptionally long period of 3 years to steady a financial system under pressure from the eurozone debt crisis.  This is the biggest ECB infusion of credit in the 13-year history of the shared € currency, surpassing the €442B ($578B) in one-year loans from Jun, 2009, when the financial system was reeling from the collapse of Lehman Brothers.  The ECB is trying to make sure that banks have enough ready cash so they can keep on lending to businesses.  Otherwise, a credit crunch could choke off growth & spread the debt crisis to the wider economy through the banks.  The 37-month term of the loans permits banks to stock up on money for a much longer period & reduces stress on their finances.  Banks have had trouble borrowing from other banks or by issuing bonds as they do in normal times because lenders fear the banks may suffer losses from the crisis & not pay them back.  In addition, banks need to pay off large amounts of their own maturing debts in the first part of 2012.  Sounds good, but it's not clear what the banks will do with this credit.

ECB Lends Banks $645B, Exceeding Forecast


  • Attendees walk down branded steps at the 29th Oracle OpenWorld in San Francisco October 2, 2011. REUTERS/Susana Bates
Photo:   Yahoo

Oracle earnings fell short of forecasts for the first time in a decade as software & hardware sales sputtered.  The stocks sank 14% on fears of stoking a global recession which will hurt tech spending.  The rare slip-up raised questions about the health of the technology sector as many companies in the industry gear up to close deals before year-end.  Oracle joins a growing list of companies, including some of the biggest & oldest names, whose results & earnings forecasts have raised alarm bells about worsening business conditions.  They include Hewlett-Packard (HPQ - a Dow stock), Dell (DELL), Intel (INTC - another Dow stock) & Texas Instruments (TXN).  These stocks are also selling off.  EPS before some costs in the fiscal Q2 was 54¢, on revenue excluding certain items of $8.81B.  Analysts had projected EPS of 57¢ on sales of $9.23B.  The stock fell a massive 4.11 shown below in the 1 month chart.

Oracle Shares Drop After Quarterly Sales, Profit Miss Analysts’ Estimates

ORCL    Oracle Corp.




U.S. Existing Homes Sold Since 2007 Revised Down by 14%

Photo:   Bloomberg

Nearly 5 years into the crisis, foreclosures are still weighing heavily on home prices.  46% of homes sold in Nov were either short sales or REOs (homes repossessed by lenders), according to a survey by Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance.  One problem: distressed homes sell for a lot less than homes sold by conventional sellers.  The average price for a short sale (when borrowers owe the bank more than their homes are worth) was $209K, for a regular sale, the average was about $259K.  The numbers are even worse for REOs, which averaged about $190K for properties in move-in condition.  For a damaged REO, the price was just $99K, a common problem since homeowners who've been foreclosed on don't typically devote resources to upkeep.  There is no shortage of distressed properties:  More than 6M borrowers are delinquent 30 or more days & 2M are already in the foreclosure process (most will be repossessed or sold as short sales).  Adding to the despair in the industry, the number of existing homes sold in the US was revised down by an average 14% since 2007, magnifying the depth of the slump that contributed to the last recession.  Purchases were revised to 4.19M for 2010, down 15% from a prior estimate of 4.91M, the National Association of Realtors said.  Sales climbed 4% in Nov to a 4.42M annual pace, from a revised 4.25M rate the prior month.  The depressed housing industry is not rebounding anytime soon.



Dreary news got the better of the markets after yesterday's big rally.  The biggest disappointment is the failure of the move by the ECB to bring out stock buyers.  On this make it up as we go along way to solve enormous financial problems, markets are not convinced banks will know what to do with this infusion of money.  The housing data is nothing new, it's stuck in the mud & could take years to get back to a strong market.  ORCL is another signal that economic recovery is not as strong as the bulls make it out to be.  Markets are back to lumbering along in holiday trading.  So much for taking out the 12.2K high on the Dow.

Dow Jones Industrial Average








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Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Markets nose dive after FOMC meeting

Ben Bernanke has run out of magic tricks to help an ailing recovery.  Dow dropped 283 (closing at the lows), decliners over advancers more than 4-1 & NAZ sank 52.  Banks led the way down, hurt by credit downgrades from Moody's for major banks.  The Financial Index is at levels not seen since May 2009.

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value160.47One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change   -8.34     (-4.9%)

The MLP index had a big drop following its 10% move up in recent weeks & the REIT index plunged 11 to 210 (where it was after the plunge on Aug 8).  Junk bond funds were slightly lower & 10 year Treasuries rallied to new highs (record low yields) on the expectation of more buying by the Federal Reserve.  Oil sold off in sympathy with stocks & gold retreated below 1800 once again.

Alerian MLP Index


Value353.47One-Year Chart for Alerian MLP Index (AMZ:IND)
Change  -5.03    (-1.4%)

Click for the latest market update below:



Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.005%

U.S. 2-year

0.202%

U.S. 10-year

1.873%

CLX11.NYM...Crude Oil Nov 11...85.96 ...Down 0.96  (1.1%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]


Fed Will Shift Treasury Holdings to Longer-Term Securities

Photo:   Bloomberg

The Federal Reserve (FED) will replace much of the short-term debt in its portfolio with longer-term Treasuries to further reduce borrowing costs & keep the economy from relapsing into a recession.  It will buy $400B of bonds with maturities of 6-30 years thru Jun while selling an equal amount of debt maturing in 3 years or less.  The action “should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and help make broader financial conditions more accommodative,” the FOMC said.  “Operation Twist” (similar to a FED action in 1961) may lower interest rates & avoids reprising the money creation that sparked criticism last year.  “There are significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets,” the FED statement said.  The pledge to keep the benchmark interest rates near zero through at least mid-2013 was unchanged as long as unemployment remains high & the inflation outlook stays “subdued.”  The FED also said it will also reinvest maturing housing debt into mortgage-backed securities instead of Treasuries “to help support conditions in mortgage markets.”  What else can the FED do now?

Fed Will Shift Treasury Holdings to Longer-Term Securities


Oracle Corp. CEO Larry Ellison

Larry Ellison
Photo:   Bloomberg

Oracle reported profit that topped estimates, boosted by increased spending on database programs & applications that help run businesses.  Fiscal Q1 EPS excluding some items was 48¢ , above the 47¢ estimate.  Sales rose 12% to $8.37B, matching projections.  ORCL spent more than $40B on takeovers since 2005 to add programs that help large corps manage operations & tackle complicated computing tasks.  New software license sales, a predictor of future revenue, rose 16% to $1.5B, beating the 15% gain estimated by an analyst & hardware sales (less profitable) declined 1.4% to $1.67B.  The stock rose 1.15 (4%) in an ugly market.


Oracle Corporation (ORCL)


stock chart


Greece announced new austerity measures!  I think have heard that before.  That means it doesn't qualify for another loan, so more Scotch-Tape will be used to put the economy together.  If their bailout is extended, that would be nothing to brag about.  The country would still be on the edge of failure.  Back to domestic problems, markets finally caught on there's not much the FED can do with interest rates already at record low levels.  The political goings on in DC about reducing massive federal deficits were ignored.  They will get more attention in the coming weeks, especially with the deadline to come up with $1½T in savings just 2 months away.  Dow is down 500 this month & 1K since the start of Aug.  More pain is coming.

Dow Industrials (INDU)


stock chart


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Friday, June 24, 2011

Markets sink on renewed European fears

Dow dropped 95, decliners over advancers 2-1 & NAZ fell 24.  Bank stocks led the way down with the Financial Index sinking to its lowest levels since Nov.

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value 198.09 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change    -2.05    (-1.0%)

The MLP & REIT indices were each down chump change & junk bond funds were flattish.  Treasuries also were quiet, although the yield on the 10 year Treasury bond went below 2.9% (with QE2 ending next week).  Oil was flat, down sharply from its recent highs, & gold also marked time.


This video gives what's happening right now in the markets:




JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


stock chart

Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.010%

U.S. 2-year

0.349%

U.S. 10-year

2.894%

CLQ11.NYM....Crude Oil Aug 11...91.02  ......0.00  (0.0%)

GCM11.CMX...Gold Jun 11.......1,518.40 ...Down 1.70  (0.1%)


Durable goods orders climbed more than forecast in May, signaling manufacturing may be one of the first areas of the economy to rebound from a H1 slowdown in growth. Bookings rose 1.9% (beating forecasts of 1.5%) after a 2.7% Apr drop that was smaller than previously reported according to the Commerce Dept.  Record exports, the need for companies to update equipment & the easing of parts shortages stemming from the disaster in Japan, may boost manufacturing in H2.  The figures support the view by the Federal Reserve that slackening in the expansion is due to temporary restraints.  Orders for durable goods excluding transportation equipment, (i.e. commercial aircraft), increased 0.6% after a 0.4% decline in Apr.  These figures extended a recurring pattern of declines in capital equipment orders at the start of a qtr that are then reversed in the following 2 months.

Orders for Durable Goods Beat Forecast




Photo:   Yahoo

The economy grew at an annual rate of 1.9% in Q1 according to the Commerce Dep, up from a previously estimated 1.8% (in line with expectations).  This compares with a 3.1% rate in Q4 2010.  Some interpret this a a soft patch that will not last into H2.  The jump in commodity prices & shortage of auto parts stemming from the disaster in Japan have also restrained growth in Q1 are showing signs of improving.

U.S. Economy Expanded at 1.9% Pace in First Quarter, Above Prior Estimate


Oracle Falls After Hardware Sales Drop

Photo:   Bloomberg

Oracle reported quarterly net income increased 36% as new sales of business software were at the high end of its expectations & revenue rose 13%.  But the hardware division stumbled.  CEO Larry Ellison has repeatedly said that he wants to focus of Sun's business only on higher-profit deals.  As a result, some lower-margin deals may fall off.  Now that Oracle has had Sun for a full year, the effect of this strategy is coming into focus.  EPS of 62¢ in fiscal Q4 (ending May 31) compares with 46¢ last year.  Excluding stock-based compensation & one-time expenses, ORCL earned 75¢, higher than the 71¢ expected.  Revenue of $10.78B was slightly higher than the $10.76B expected.  Software revenue rose 17% to $7.7B & revenue from new software licenses, a key metric for predicting future revenue, came in at the high end of its previous forecast.  But revenue in its hardware division was flat at $1.83B. Stronger sales of hardware support contracts masked a 6% decline in revenue from computers sold, disturbing investors.  The stock slid 1.34.

Oracle Falls After Hardware Sales Drop

Oracle Corporation (ORCL)


stock chart


Markets are drifting lower as they see no signs of relief with confusion coming from Europe & DC.  It's anybody's guess what will happen with Greek debts.  In DC, the Reps refuse to talk about raising the debt ceiling, wanting it to be linked with budget cuts which seem far down the road.  The pres's way of leading was going to NY yesterday to raise some of the $1B he wants for next year's campaign.  That's called, first things first.  Stock markets are unsettled as they see no leadership.  The economy is sputtering, but the optimists are hoping it will pick up steam shortly.  Maybe maybe not.  That's holding advancing markets back.  Dow has fallen about 1K off its recent high 2 months ago.

Dow Industrials (INDU)


stock chart




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Friday, December 17, 2010

Sleepy day for the markets

On a another boring day for stocks, Dow fell 7, adavancers barely ahead of decliners & NAZ was up 5 (helped by Oracle earnings).  Bank stocks also edged higher.  


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value 208.72 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX (S5FINL:IND)
Change   0.59 (0.3%)


The Alerian MLP Index fell 1½ to 350 & down 10 from highs early this week.  The REIT index rose 1½ into the 214s, little changed in the last few months.  Junk bond funds had a good day, typically up 1%.  There was a report that last month the default rate on junk bonds was at the lowest level in 3 years.  Treasuries were in a rally after being oversold.  The yield on the 10 year Treasury dropped a massive 15 basis points to 3.33%. 


Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month
0.10%
U.S. 2-year
0.60%
U.S. 10-year
3.33%



Alerian MLP Index   ---   YTD



Dow Jones REIT Index   ---   YTD



10-Year Treasury Yield Index   ---   YTD




Oil bounced back after recent selling.  It may decline next week on speculation that the Energy Dept will report an increase in supplies after the biggest drop in more than 8 years in this week’s data.  Gold also had a bounce back following recent selling.

CLF11.NYM...Light Sweet Crude Oil... 88.08 ...Up 0.38  (0.4%)

GCZ10.CMX...Gold Dec 10............1,378.60 ....Up 8.20  (0.6%)

+++  Gold Super Cycle  +++  



The index of leading economic indicators increased in Nov by the most in 8 months.  The Conference Board’s gauge for the outlook for the next 3-6 months rose 1.1% after a revised 0.4% gain in Oct.  Americans grew more confident last month as stocks rose & fewer people filed for unemployment benefits, boosting the prospects for consumer spending in coming months. The biggest contributors to the increase were a slowdown in supplier deliveries, the spread between short & long-term interest rates & a drop in jobless claims. This kind of data is fueling optimism about a stronger economic recovery in 2011.

Leading Indicators in U.S. Gain by Most in 8 Months



Oracle (ORCL) net income jumped 28% in the latest qtr, its biggest increase in more than 2 years & another sign that companies are spending more liberally on technology.  It also forecast net income & revenue in the current qtr above analysts' expectations.  ORCL, one of the world's biggest software makers, demonstrated in its latest numbers that it is shielded somewhat from sudden market swings because nearly half of its revenue comes from support contracts that provide consistent revenue throughout the year.  ORCL also cited improving profitability at Sun Microsystems, bought nearly a year ago, as another reason for its better-than-expected results. That acquisition gave Oracle a computer-server business & transformed the company into more of a one-stop shop for technology.  The stock was up 1.19, after recovering nicely from its lows last year. 

Oracle reports profit jump, bucking industry fearsAP

Oracle   ---   2 years





AT&T (T) increased the quarterly div to 43¢ a share, up a penny from previous quarters. The company also authorized the repurchase of up to 300M shares of stock (5% of the outstanding shares) with no expiration date. The buyback would total almost $9B. The stock slipped a few pennies in the 29s.

AT&T Boosts Dividend, May Buy Back $8.77 Billion of Stock

AT&T   ---   2 years




Markets ended the week with little accomplished today.  I thought resolution of the tax extension & dropping the omnibus spending bill of FY 2011 would have brought more buyers.  But there are plenty of worries about European debt problems which aren't going away soon. The Dow gained almost 1% this week while the MLP index fell almost 3%.  MLPs have been lagging behind the popular averages for a couple of months & they may have to get used to that in the new year.


Dow Jones Industrials   ---   YTD





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