Showing posts with label home mortgages. Show all posts
Showing posts with label home mortgages. Show all posts

Thursday, April 5, 2012

Lower stocks on higher European worries

Dow slid 14, decliners ahead of advancers 3-2 & NAZ rose 12 (helped by a 9 point rise for Apple to a new record).  Bank stocks drifted lower, taking the Financial Index down a fraction in the 209s.  The index has been going sideways since mid Mar.  The MLP index was up fraction to 391, but has had a tough go of it this year, while the REIT index fell 1 to 251.  Junk bond funds slipped & Treasuries rose, bringing lower yields.  Gold rose, as investors covered short positions, after a sharp 2-day pullback, & a rally in oil also buoyed the precious metal that sank earlier this week when investors grew pessimistic about further US monetary easing.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


stock chart


Click below for the latest market update:


Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.066%

U.S. 2-year

0.341%

U.S. 10-year

2.172%

CLK12.NYMCrude Oil May 12103.32 Up 1.85 (1.8%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




JC Penney will lay off 600 workers (13% of the staff) at its headquarters in Texas, as the company looks to streamline its operations amid a major reinvention of the business.  It will also eliminate 300 more jobs at its customer call center in Pittsburgh when it closes in Jul.  The moves come as the new CEO Ron Johnson is transforming every aspect of the business, from pulling back on constant promotions to rethinking the brands it carries.  "We are going to operate like a start-up," said Johnson in a press release issued Thursday that didn't cite specific job cuts. "We are going to be nimble, quick to learn, quicker to react and totally committed to realizing our vision to become America's favorite store."  Johnson said the cuts involved "some very difficult decisions" but were essential for the business.  The company had said then it was targeting $900M in expense cuts to be completed over the first 2 years of its transformation, including $200M in savings from headquarters as well as $400M in cost savings at store operations & $300M in advertising savings.  The changes are expected to reduce expenses below 30% of sales by the end of next year.  Before the layoffs, JCP had 4400 employees at its headquarters.  While not significant at the big picture level, this will add to the unemployed looking for work.  The stock was off 49¢.

Penney cuts 600 workers, 13 percent of HQ staff AP

J.C. Penney Company, Inc. Holding Company (JCP)


stock chart


The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage was mostly unchanged this week, as the cost of home-buying & refinancing remained near record lows.  Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said that the rate on the 30-year loan fell slightly to 3.98% from 3.99% last week.  In Feb, the rate touched 3.87%, the lowest since long-term mortgages began in the 1950s.  The average rate on the 15-year fixed mortgage also fell, to 3.21% from 3.23%.  That's above the record low of 3.13% hit last month.  Mortgage rates have been below 4% for all but one week since early Dec which has helped lift the outlook for housing after 4 sluggish years of home sales.  Jan & Feb made up the best winter for re-sales in 5 years, when the housing crisis began & builders are more confident about the market. In February, they requested the most permits to build single-family homes & apartments in more than 3 years.  Applications for new mortgages rose in Mar & there was a sharp rise in the average loan size, suggesting a bigger appetite for home loans.  The average size of mortgage applications has increased by $20K since DecK, to  $235K last month.  A hopeful sign for housing. 

30-Year Mortgage Rate Falls to 3.98%


  • <p>               President Barack Obama signs the Jumpstart Our Business Startups (JOBS) Act, Thursday, April 5, 2012, in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)
Photo:   Yahoo

The President signed bipartisan jobs legislation that will help small businesses & make it easier for startups to raise capital, saying it could be a "game-changer" for entrepreneurs dreaming of founding the next Microsoft (MSFT), a Dow stock, or Facebook.  "When their ideas take root, we get inventions that can change the way we live," Obama said.  "And when their businesses take off, more people become employed."  While receiving bipartisan support, some Dems raised concerns that the bill softened investment protections enacted after the dot.com excesses & Wall Street meltdowns with changes that could lead to fraud & abuse.  The main part of the bill would phase in SEC regulations over a 5-year period to let smaller companies go public sooner.  Firms that have annual gross revenues of less than $1B would enjoy this "emerging growth company" status.

Obama signs small business legislation AP


The average price at the pump for gas is matching the high for last year & near the $4.11 record in mid 2008.

National Unleaded Average
RegularMidPremiumDiesel85**E85
MPG/BTU
adjusted
price
Current Avg.$3.936$4.069$4.200$4.166$3.345$4.403
Yesterday Avg.$3.928$4.063$4.195$4.164$3.335$4.389
Week Ago Avg. $3.921$4.059$4.190$4.162$3.313$4.360
Month Ago Avg. $3.764$3.911$4.044$4.084$3.216$4.233
Year Ago Avg. $3.707$3.839$3.968$4.003$3.119$4.104

Source:   AAA


Investors weighed optimism about the American job market with renewed concern over Europe’s debt crisis & the latter was of greater concern today.  Earnings season kicks off next week with Alcoa (AA), a Dow stock, reporting on Tues.  Analysts are looking for a 5¢ loss versus a profit last year.  Dow gave up 152 this week but was able to hold above 13K.  S&P 500 has been waffling around 1400 (closing at 1398 today) without breaking thru since mid Mar.  The stock market looks very tired after a long run.

Dow Industrials


stock chart








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Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Markets slide, awaiting outcome on Greek debt talks

Dow fell 50 with a loss of faith in resolving the debt mess, advancers marginally ahead of decliners & NAZ fell 7.  Bank stocks hardly budged.  

The MLP & REIT indices were pretty much even, marking time, & junk bond funds were also flattish.  Treasuries fell with the 10 year yield nearing 2%.  Oil futures pared gains after the Energy Department reported inventories of gasoline climbed more than expected & distillate fuel supplies unexpectedly increased.  Gold was little changed, although it is having a good year.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


stock chart

Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.081%

U.S. 2-year

0.250%

U.S. 10-year

1.991%

CLH12.NYM...Crude Oil Mar 12...99.79 ...Up 1.38 (1.4%)

GCG12.CMX...Gold Feb 12......1,747.30 ...Up 0.90  (0.1%)




Get the last daily market update below:



  • Customers are served at a Mcdonald's fast food restaurant in London, January 24, 2012.  REUTERS/Finbarr O'Reilly
Photo:   Yahoo

McDonald's, a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, reported a better-than-expected rise in Jan same store sales worldwide.  Strength in the US helped offset the impact of economic weakness in Europe.  Sales at restaurants open at least 13 months rose 6.7% globally beating estimates of 5.9%.  CEO Jim Skinner said MCD boosted sales in the US by keeping restaurants open longer; about 40% of stores operate 24 hours a day.  The chain has recently promoted classic items such as the Big Mac & Chicken McNuggets as well as a McRib sandwich & Chicken McBites at US locations, which generate about one-third of revenue.  The stock was off 38¢.

McDonald’s January Same-Store Sales Rise 6.7% as Chicken Items Boost U.S.

McDonald's Corporation (MCD)


stock chart


  • <p>               Protesters stand outside of the Development Ministry  in Athens, which was occupied by protesting PPC electricity company employees on Wednesday, Feb. 8, 2012. The protesters object to reported plans to privatize part of the country's power distribution service. (AP Photo/Dimitri Messinis)
Protesters in Athens
Photo;   Yahoo

The Greek coalition leaders arrived for crucial debt talks with the prime minister to review a draft deal on steep cutbacks demanded by creditors in return for a €130B ($170B) bailout. Leaders of 3 parties backing the coalition are under pressure to accept the new austerity demands & shield the country from a looming bankruptcy.  The meeting finally went ahead after 3 days of delays.  Greece has already accepted a demand to layoff up to 15K workers in the public sector in 2012, but is under pressure to impose deeper cuts, including reductions in pension payments & the minimum wage.  It was not clear whether the parties would accept these demands.  The debt mess drones on.

Greek party leaders arrive for crucial debt talks AP


The costs of faulty mortgages & shoddy foreclosures topped $72B at the biggest US banks as they near a settlement of a 50-state probe into the industry practices.  Wells Frago (WFC), Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C) JPMorgan (JPM) & Ally Financial (formerly GMAC), the 5 largest lenders, tallied at least $6.8B in new costs tied to mortgages during H2 of 2011.  BAC, ranked #2 by assets, contributed $41.8B to the overall total.  Mounting costs are pushing lenders & regulators to resolve investigations & lawsuits over faulty home lending, including a 50-state review of foreclosures.  Wrangling over the status of old loans has made some banks more reluctant to make new ones, even as Ben Bernanke appeals for action to increase lending to fix the housing market.  The banks are negotiating a settlement worth as much as $25B with state attorneys general.  That may expand later to include smaller lenders that made loans. 

Bad Home Loans Top $72 Billion in ‘Colossal Failure’: Mortgages


Larry Fink, CEO at ClackRock (BLK), says investors should have 100% of investments in equities because of valuations & higher returns than bonds.  He said that  investors seeking the safety of treasury bonds will have minimal returns.  "You need to take on more risk, you need to overcome all this noise," he said.  "When you look at dividend returns on equities versus bond yields, to me it's a pretty easy decision to be heavily in equities."  He added that the Greek debt crisis will be resolved as it's not in anyone's interests to have a blowup now.  Contrarians will view this as a recommendation for selling.

BlackRock's Fink: Investors Should Be 100% in Equities


There is not much going on again.  One of the interesting stories today was about Clint Eastwood & his Chrysler commercial.  This is getting more attention than the goings on in the markets.  Nobody knows where the Greek debt mess will lead.  Volume is light while negotiations drag on.  But markets are holding their gains made this year & Dow has its eyes on 13K, hoping to reach it shortly. 

Dow Industrials


stock chart







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Friday, September 16, 2011

Markets adrift on euro crisis uncertainty

Dow was up 6, decliners ahead of advancers 5-4 & NAZ added 1.  Banks stocks were soft.

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value 171.93 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change     -1.73    (-1.0%)

The MLP index fell 5 to the the 348s while the REIT index fell 2 to the 222s.  The MLP index remains near 350, its low in May representing a 10% pullback from the record high at 390.  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries were a tad higher.  Oil slipped, trimming its 4th straight weekly gain & longest winning streak since Jul, on concern that European plans to solve the region’s debt crisis may founder, threatening economic growth.  Gold rose the first time in 3 days on renewed concern that Europe’s debt crisis will threaten economies, boosting demand for a safe haven investment.


ALERIAN MLP Index (^AMZ)



Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.000%

U.S. 2-year

0.181%

U.S. 10-year

2.083%

CLV11.NYM....Crude Oil Oct 11...88.57 ...Down 0.83 (0.9%)

GCU11.CMX...Gold Sep 11.....1,776.00 ...Down 2.50  (0.1%)


Get the latest market update below:




U.S. Michigan Sentiment Index Rose to 57.8 in September

Photo:   Bloomberg

Consumers were slightly more confident in the economy in Sep, but also increasingly worried about the future.  The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index inched up to 57.8 in Sep from 55.7 in Aug.  The Aug reading was the lowest since Nov 2008.  But consumers are more pessimistic about their future prospects. An index tracking consumer expectations fell to its lowest level since May 1980!  Americans are more optimistic about present conditions as that index rose to 74.5 from 68.7.  Consumer confidence plunged in Aug, after the gov said the economy barely grew in the H1, lawmakers fought over raising the nation's borrowing limit & S&P downgraded long-term U.S. debt.  Not much encouragement in this report.

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Rises


Austria's finance minister is criticizing Treasury Sec Tim Geithner for lecturing the eurozone on its crisis strategy but refusing to listen to the currency union's suggestions.  Maria Fekter says Geithner in "very dramatic terms" urged the eurozone to get a grip on its debt crisis to avoid destabilizing the global financial system, but then immediately ruled out a tax on financial transactions, which some euro countries see as a way of sharing the burden of expensive bailouts.  She said "I would have expected that, if he explains the world to us, that he would also listen to what we want to explain to the Americans."  Greece's intl rescue partners will delay until Oct their decision on paying out the next rouind of bailout loans needed to keep Greece from bankruptcy.  The announcement was yet another example of Europe's halting effort over almost 2 years to solve its crisis over too much gov debt in some countries.  Geithner had joined the meeting, a first for the US finance chief, in a sign of how the US is getting increasingly concerned over the global impact of the eurozone debt crisis.  But the participants appeared unable to make progress on any front.  Now he has to fly back to DC to fix the US debt mess.

Europe Ministers Rule Out Stimulus, Offer No Bank Aid at Geithner Meeting


Foreclosure

Foreclosed home
Photo:    Bloomberg

The number of US homeowners who owe more than their property is worth slipped in Q2 as more residences were lost to foreclosure according to CoreLogic.  About 10.88M homes, or 22.5% of those with a mortgage, were “underwater” as of Jun 30, down from 10.91M, or 22.7% in Q1.  Another 2.42M borrowers had less than 5% equity at the end of Q2, bringing the total properties with negative or near-negative equity to 27.5% of mortgaged homes.  Foreclosures are reducing these numbers.  Negative equity is holding back refinancing & home sales, impeding a recovery in the housing market.  Almost 75% of underwater homeowners are paying above-market interest on their mortgages, defined as more than than 5.1% versus an average rate for a 30-year fixed loan of 4.12% last week (lowest in records dating back 4 decades).  All housing data remains grim which is holding back efforts for the economy to recover.

Fewer U.S.Homeowners ‘Underwater’ as Foreclosures Mount


Dow is up 440 this week, not too bad considering major problems are still stuck in neutral.  The delay in providing aid to Greece should have been felt in the markets, but they are accepting the hold up.   MLPs continue to flounder.  After 2 years of being the leader for all markets, they have been going sideways in 2011.  The index reached a new record high in late Apr, but since then sold off in May & has been treading sideways with a few bumps along the way. I think the big gain in the markets this week showed more optimism than was justified.  In simpler terms, markets got ahead of themselves.

Dow Industrials (INDU)


stock chart




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Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Stock markets are flying high

Aitlines reported good earnings & stocks took their cue, they are soaring.   Dow was up 129, advancers ahead of decliners better than 3-1 & NAZ gained 20. However, the averages finished below their highs of the day.  Banks did well but nothing special as the Financial Index is struggling to top 200 as it has for the last 6 months. 


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value196.84One-Year Chart for S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX (S5FINL:IND)
Change  2.18  (1.1%)



The MLP index rebounded, up 2 to almost 350, & recovered much of yesterday's decline.  The REIT exploded, up 5 to the 224s, yet another 2010 high.  Its record was over 300 three years ago before many dividends were cut.  Junk bond funds participated in today's gains.  Treasury yields were little changed, the yield on the 10 year Treasury was only a fraction of a basis point lower to 2.47%


Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month
0.13%
U.S. 2-year
0.34%
U.S. 10-year
2.47%



Alerian MLP Index   ---   YTD




Dow Jones REIT Index   ---   YTD




10-Year Treasury Yield Index   ---   YTD




Oil had another excellent day bringing it back over the important 80 resistance level & gold was able to recover some of yesterday's big loss.

CLX10.NYM...Crude Oil Nov 10...81.77 ...Up 2.28 (2.9%)
GCV10.CMX...Gold Oct 10......1,344.60....Up 9.50  (0.7%)

++ Gold Super Cycle ++ 




The Beige Book regional survey from the Federal Reserve (FED) said the US economy expanded at a “modest pace” in Sep & early Oct with little sign of accelerating.  Treasuries were higher on speculation the FED will increase quantitative easing.  8 FED banks, including San Francisco & Chicago, reported some form of growth, according to the Beige Book survey of the 12 regional banks,  This report is released 2 weeks before each meeting of central bank policy makers.

Treasuries Remain Higher as Fed Beige Book Shows `Modest Pace' in Recovery




Apple (AAPL) unveiled new MacBook Air ultralight laptops & offered a few glimpses of its new Mac operating system software.  AAPL CEO Steve Jobs introduced 2 new MacBook Air models, saying, "We asked ourselves: What would happen if a MacBook & an iPad hooked up?"  One of the new laptops has a screen that's 13.3" diagonally, the 2nd has an 11.6" screen.  The larger MacBook Air is 0.68 inches at its thickest point & weighs 2.9 lbs with a battery life of 7 hours. The smaller one weighs 2.2 lbs & is rated to last 5 hours. The basic smaller one costs $999 & the larger one will cost $1,599 with 256gb.  As an aside, my netbook book with Windows XP does a little less, weighs 2.19lbs & cost only a small fraction of those prices.  AAPL also announced a new version of its operating system, called Mac OS X Lion, that will include a store for Mac software. It's similar to the iTunes store that sells apps for iPhone, iPod Touch & iPad.  Lion is expected during summer 2011, its price was not disclosed.  With all this excitement, the stock rose only 1 to the 211s & finished 4 below its high as selling came in after the product announcements at midday.

Apple Introduces New Macintosh Software at Event


Apple   ---   YTD






Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan repeated the White House’s opposition to a national foreclosure moratorium so that the “fragile housing recovery that has begun can continue.” The foreclosure delays may have a particular impact on some of the hardest-hit housing markets particularly in western states like Nevada, Arizona & California, as well as Florida.   He said there’s no evidence yet of “structural” issues with the Mortgage Electronic Registration System, an electronic registry of home loans that critics have charged with violating property record-keeping laws. Banks that package loans into bonds called mortgage-backed securities often rely on MERS to track owners of mortgages as the securities change hands. Bank of America (BAC), a Dow stock, has the biggest exposure, some estimates place their total at $25B & Wells Fargo (WFC) is seen in 2nd place.  WFC stock has held up fairly well but BAC has fallen 10% since the crisis came to light last week.

White House sees no ‘structural’ foreclosure issueat MarketWatch

Bank of America   --   2 weeks



Wells Fargo   ---   2 weeks





Stocks flew high taking the Dow Jones average near its 11.2K high for 2010 (reached 6 months ago). The hot sectors continue very hot:  gold, MLPs, Treasuries & REITs are getting very hot.  It's harder to see justification for them as most dividends have been cut with little prospect of significant increases in the short run. 

Dow Jones Index   ---   YTD





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