Thursday, December 19, 2019

Markets climb higher after Mnuchin's comments on new trade deal

Dow rose 66, advancers modestly ahead of decliners & NAZ added 23.  The MLP index pulled  back 1+ to 217 & the REIT index went up 1+ to the 397s.  Junk bond funds were flattish & Treasuries continued weak.  Oil was even just under 61 & gold inched up 1 to 1479 (little changed over 7 days).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil61.01
+0.08+0.1%

GC=FGold   1,480.50
+1.80+0.1%






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China unveiled a new list of tariff exemptions for imports from the US, days after the worlds 2 largest economies announced a Phase 1 trade deal.  The tariff waivers will be effective Dec 26 & will apply for six items, most of them chemical products such as white oil, high-density polyethylene, linear low-density polyethylene, polypropylene & food-grade petroleum wax, the Ministry of Finance said.  The exemption will be for one year, ending on Dec 25, 2020, the ministry said, but didn't provide the value of the import goods excluded from duties.  Duties already imposed on US products will not be refunded, the ministry added.  China waived import tariffs for some soybeans & pork shipments from the US on Dec 6, before the 2 sides reached a Phase 1 trade deal to cancel tariffs that were planned to take effect on Dec 15.  China said it will continue to work on the product exemptions & release the 2nd batch of waiver list at an appropriate time.  The Sino-U.S. trade war has been a major headache for global policymakers as it slowed economic growth worldwide & chilled business investment & confidence.  Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer last week acknowledged there remained hard work ahead in the next phase of negotiations.  He gave no specific timetable, but said Pres Trump did not want to wait until after the 2020 presidential election to wrap up a more comprehensive agreement.

China cuts America a break on tariffs after phase one deal


Home-buying slumped in Nov, with many Americans priced out of the market by rising prices & a shortage of sales listings.  The National Association of Realtors says sales of existing homes fell 1.7% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.35M.   Would-be buyers face supply constraints: The number of properties for sale has dwindled 5.7% from a year ago to 1.64M units.  Affordability has also been a persistent challenge.  The median home sales price has climbed 5.4% from a year ago to $257,400, outpacing wage growth.  Still, lower mortgage rates have provided a base of demand.  Over the past 12 months, the decline in the typical mortgage rate from 4.9% to 3.8% this Nov helped to annual boost sales 2.7%.

US home sales tumbled 1.7% in November

Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said the new North American Free Trade Agreement will give the US economy a boost.  “I think we are going to get an excess 50 basis points of additional growth in GDP as a result of this agreement. People who said this is just the NAFTA 2.0 just don’t understand the technicality of this agreement,” Mnuchin said.

Mnuchin says USMCA deal will add 0.5% to GDP growth

The excitement in DC has calmed down & the markets are taking it all in stride.  Stock averages are at record highs.  New economic data is coming in good enough when many foreign economies are struggling.  Also some traders are starting their holiday celebration early after an outstanding year for stocks.  The bulls are very happy!!

Dow Jones Industrials








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