Thursday, December 5, 2019

Mixed markets after China said trade negotiations remain on track

Dow went up 28, advancers modestly ahead of decliners & NAZ added all of 4.  The MLP index was fractionally lower to the 198s & the REIT index fell 1 to the 402s.  Junk bond funds were little changed & Treasuries slid lower.  Oil finished up pennies in the 58s on a volatile day & gold was steady at 1480.

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The White Housse accused House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of ignoring the will of the American people by announcing a vote on impeachment rather than the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement.  Pelosi did not mention the USMCA during her weekly press conference.  She did ask Dem committee chairmen to move forward with impeaching Pres Trump.  "At this morning’s press conference, Speaker Nancy Pelosi could have finally announced a vote on the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement that would immediately help America’s farmers, ranchers, businesses, and workers; or outlined a plan to work with the President to lower prescription drug prices; or addressed our Nation's infrastructure," White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham said.  "Instead, Speaker Pelosi did exactly what she always does – ignore the needs of the American people and advance her selfish political desires," Grisham added."  The statement comes as progress in the US has run into opposition in Mexico, which is pushing back on labor enforcement changes being pushed by House Dems.

White House blasts Pelosi pushing impeachment instead of USMCA vote


Saudi Aramco is expected to price its IPO Thurs at the high end of the targeted range to give the oil giant a total value of $1.7T in what would be the world's biggest-ever IPO.  The state-controlled Saudi Arabian Oil, commonly known as Aramco, is set to sell 3B shares or 1.5% stake of the company at 32 Saudi riyals ($8.53), or at the top of the targeted range of 30-32 riyals for a total of $25.6B.  That would exceed the $25B in 2014 of Chinese online commerce company Alibaba Group Holding (BABA), the current record holder.  Still, the share sale falls well short of the initial $2T valuation targeted by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.  The shortfall also risks over exposing Saudi Arabia's middle-class investors to the future stock-market performance of one company, as many institutional investors outside the country & the surrounding region passed on the offering as too expensive.  Largely driven by domestic & regional individual & institutional investor support, demand for the offering was strong as Aramco had already attracted more than $60B of orders as of Tues.  That interest places the IPO underwriters on track to exercise the offering's overallotment option of an additional 450M shares to increase the total funds raised to close to $30B from the sale.  Aramco's shares are scheduled to start trading Dec 11 on Saudi Arabia's Tadawul stock exchange.

Saudi Aramco IPO expected at $1.7 trillion as world's biggest company


Oil moved between gains & losses today as traders awaited the decision from OPEC on its production policy.  Ahead of the meeting in Vienna, Russian energy minister Alexander Novak said that OPEC+ was discussing a larger-than-expected 500K barrel a day production cut for the first qtr of 2020.  Oil briefly gave back its gains after Novak also said that the deeper cuts would only be implemented if each member complies with its current production quota.  West Texas Intermediate settled unchanged at $58.43 & Brent crude futures gained 44¢ to hit $63.45.  Ahead of the meeting, Iraq said that it was pushing for a 400K barrel a day production cut on top of the existing agreement for cuts of 1.2M barrels per day.  24-country OPEC+ has cut output by 1.2M barrels per day since the beginning of the year & the current deal runs thru Mar 2020.  Production cuts were first implemented in Jan of 2017 in an attempt to bolster prices as the US kicked up its shale oil production, among other things.  As the meeting kicks off reports, there are conflicting over proposed the cuts.  WTI briefly sold off after it eas reported that one senior Saudi oil official denied pursuing a deeper round of production cuts.  On Mon, there was another report that said Saudi Arabia could be in favor of deeper cuts in order to give Aramco a boost as it hit the public market.  Also in focus will be individual country's production output.  This is the first meeting with the new Saudi energy minister, Prince Abdul Aziz bin Salman, who is the son of the King & ½-brother to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Oil whipsaws in choppy trade as Street awaits OPEC output decision

Luxury jeweler Tiffany (TIF) reported earnings & revenue that fell short of expectations.  In the Q3 ended Oct 31, EPS fell to 65¢ from 77¢ a year earlier.  Analysts were expecting 85¢.  Revenue was unchanged at $1.015B from a year earlier, but lower than the $1.037B expected.  Same store sales were also unchanged from a year earlier, compared with the growth of 1.4% that was expected.  Excluding Hong Kong, where anti-gov protests has disrupted commerce, TIF said worldwide net sales & sales at stores open at least a year increased 4% & 3%, respectively, from the prior year.  “Our underlying business remains healthy with sales attributed to local customers on a global basis growing in the third quarter, led by strong double-digit growth in the Chinese Mainland offset in part by softness in domestic sales in the Americas,” CEO Alessandro Bogliolo said.  The earnings report came a week after French luxury giant LVMH reached a deal to acquire TIF for $16.2B ($135 a share in cash.  The boards of both companies approved the deal and the transaction is expected to close in the middle of 2020.  “We are very excited about the recently announced transaction with LVMH and, pending the required approvals, look forward to becoming part of the LVMH family of exceptional luxury brands,” Bogliolo added.  Management said in the last earnings report that if the situation worsened in Hong Kong, its 4th largest market, full-year sales results could fall closer to the lower end of its forecast.  For its fiscal year ending Jan 31, 2020, TIF was originally calling for net sales globally to increase by a low-single-digit percentage & for net EPS to increase by a low-to-mid-single-digit percentage.  However, after it reached the deal with LVMH, it said it would no longer be providing guidance & that its most updated projection would no longer be in effect.  The stock fell 13¢.
If you would like to learn more about TIF, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/TIF?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Tiffany shares down after a big earnings miss

China's trade negotiations with the US remain on track, Beijing said, offering official reassurance after tensions flared between the world's 2 biggest economies over human-rights issues in China.  China's Commerce Ministry said today that the negotiating teams from both sides have maintained close communication, though it didn't provide details on progress.  The recent strain had spooked investors & stoked concerns over the global economic outlook.

China Says U.S. Trade Talks Remain on Track


Stocks spent the day meandering, looking for direction.  High drama in DC was hardly noticed.  The Nov jobs report is eagerly waited for tomorrow AM.  Stock averages remain just under record levels although safe haven gold is in still in demand, hanging in at the high 1400s.  The Dow is down about 380 so far in Dec.  The USMCA trade deal appears to be dead in the water for this year & the outlook for next year is bleak.  Failure to pass that legislation would be a major minus for the US economy next year!!

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