Dow was off 26, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ went up 20. The MLP index rose 1+ to the 211s & the REIT index fell 1 to the 401s. Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries were being purchased, modestly. Oil slid back pennies in the 58s after the Aramco IPO went off well in Saudi Arabia & gold rose 6 to 1474 (still in its recent trading range)..
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
The 15% tariffs set to hit about $160B of Chinese goods this weekend may not happen after all. The duties were planned Dec 15 for an array of consumer products such as smartphones, laptops, other electronics & clothes. “A conversation I had Monday, that I won’t say who it was with, didn’t deal with tariffs, but it would tell me that tariffs will not be imposed on Dec. 15, and we could possibly be close to an agreement with China,” Sen Chuck Grassley said. “I don’t have much more information than that, but it was very much a positive conversation about reaching a phase one agreement with China," the lawmaker added. Enacting more tariffs is a step business leaders & many lawmakers had hoped to avoid. It would re-escalate a trade war between the 2 lage economies that has raged for more than 21 months, starting when the US placed duties on steel, aluminum & some appliances. China's economy has slowed as the tariffs & an increasing debt load have weighed on growth. The country grew at a 6% rate in Q3, the weakest since recordkeeping began in 1993, & the Intl Monetary Fund predicts it will wane to 5.8% in 2020. While Beijing has called on the US to roll back tariffs on more than $350B of its goods as part of an initial trade deal, Pres Trump has said that's not something he wants to do. The US has not been immune to trade-war pain itself. Its Q3 GDP expanded 2.1%, according to a 2nd estimate from the Commerce Dept, down from 3.1% at the start of the year.
Mortgage applications rose in the past week as the thriving jobs market is raising confidence & people are looking for homes. Demand for applications increased 3.8%, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's Weekly Mortgage Application Survey. The results for last week included an adjustment due to the Thanksgiving holiday. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 3.98% from 3.97% & the seasonally adjusted purchase index rose 0.4%. "The November jobs data showed increased payroll gains and low unemployment, which means conditions remain favorable for steady purchase growth in the coming months,” said Joel Kan, MBA's associate VP of economic & industry forecasting. "The 30-year fixed mortgage rate remained under 4 percent for the fourth straight week, and rates for FHA loans declined close to their lowest level of the year." The refinancing index increased 9% from the previous week & was 146% higher than the same week a year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity accounted for 62.4% of total applications, rising from 59.0% in the prior week.
US consumer prices rose moderately in Nov, signaling inflation remains in check despite historically low unemployment and tariffs on Chinese imports. The consumer-price index, which measures the costs of everyday goods & services from clothing to dental care, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in Nov from the previous month, the Labor Dept said. A rise in energy & rent prices were key factors pushing up overall inflation during the month.
Stocks should tread water until the Fed speaks later. It looks like the Dec 14 tariff increase for Chinese tariffs will be put on hold. Also, the USMCA trade deal may be put on hold for weeks, maybe even months, depending on how dysfunctional DC feels.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
| CL=F | Crude Oil | 59.16 | -0.08 | -0.1% |
| GC=F | Gold | 1,472.30 | +4.20 | +0.3% |
The 15% tariffs set to hit about $160B of Chinese goods this weekend may not happen after all. The duties were planned Dec 15 for an array of consumer products such as smartphones, laptops, other electronics & clothes. “A conversation I had Monday, that I won’t say who it was with, didn’t deal with tariffs, but it would tell me that tariffs will not be imposed on Dec. 15, and we could possibly be close to an agreement with China,” Sen Chuck Grassley said. “I don’t have much more information than that, but it was very much a positive conversation about reaching a phase one agreement with China," the lawmaker added. Enacting more tariffs is a step business leaders & many lawmakers had hoped to avoid. It would re-escalate a trade war between the 2 lage economies that has raged for more than 21 months, starting when the US placed duties on steel, aluminum & some appliances. China's economy has slowed as the tariffs & an increasing debt load have weighed on growth. The country grew at a 6% rate in Q3, the weakest since recordkeeping began in 1993, & the Intl Monetary Fund predicts it will wane to 5.8% in 2020. While Beijing has called on the US to roll back tariffs on more than $350B of its goods as part of an initial trade deal, Pres Trump has said that's not something he wants to do. The US has not been immune to trade-war pain itself. Its Q3 GDP expanded 2.1%, according to a 2nd estimate from the Commerce Dept, down from 3.1% at the start of the year.
China tariffs probably won't hit on Dec. 15: Chuck Grassley
Mortgage applications rose in the past week as the thriving jobs market is raising confidence & people are looking for homes. Demand for applications increased 3.8%, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's Weekly Mortgage Application Survey. The results for last week included an adjustment due to the Thanksgiving holiday. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 3.98% from 3.97% & the seasonally adjusted purchase index rose 0.4%. "The November jobs data showed increased payroll gains and low unemployment, which means conditions remain favorable for steady purchase growth in the coming months,” said Joel Kan, MBA's associate VP of economic & industry forecasting. "The 30-year fixed mortgage rate remained under 4 percent for the fourth straight week, and rates for FHA loans declined close to their lowest level of the year." The refinancing index increased 9% from the previous week & was 146% higher than the same week a year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity accounted for 62.4% of total applications, rising from 59.0% in the prior week.
Jobs surge boosts housing market
US consumer prices rose moderately in Nov, signaling inflation remains in check despite historically low unemployment and tariffs on Chinese imports. The consumer-price index, which measures the costs of everyday goods & services from clothing to dental care, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in Nov from the previous month, the Labor Dept said. A rise in energy & rent prices were key factors pushing up overall inflation during the month.
U.S. Consumer Prices Increased 0.3% in November
Stocks should tread water until the Fed speaks later. It looks like the Dec 14 tariff increase for Chinese tariffs will be put on hold. Also, the USMCA trade deal may be put on hold for weeks, maybe even months, depending on how dysfunctional DC feels.
Dow Jones Industrials
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