Thursday, December 5, 2019

Markets slide lower on uncertain China trade prospects

Dow was off 24, advancers slightly ahead of decliners & NAZ lost 4.  The MLP index crawled higher in the 199s & the REIT index was off 1 o the 402.  Junk bond funds were steady & Treasuries declined in price.  Oil rose in the 58s on hopes for production cuts at the OPEC meeting & gold added 1 to 1481.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil58.66
+0.23+0.4%

GC=FGold   1,481.30
+1.10+0.1%






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China's envoy to the US warned that the 2 countries must resolve their trade differences before adding that forces are working to further separate the 2 superpowers.  While not providing any specific details, Ambassador Cui Tiankai spoke to the audience at a dinner hosted by the US-China Business Council, emphasizing the crossroads the 2 countries face as trade frictions heat up.  However, Cui did provide some optimism by stating it’s still possible for China & the US to return to a better relationship  ``At the same time, we must be alert that some destructive forces are taking advantage of the ongoing trade friction (through) extreme rhetoric such as 'decoupling,' the 'new Cold War,' and clash of civilizations,''' Cui said.  Cui advocated for both US & Chinese companies to stand up to those politicians who `spread hostility and even create conflict between us,'' while taking a moment to denounce the “fake news” regarding the deadly protests ongoing in Hong Kong & Xinjiang, home to China's Uighur Muslim population.  US officials have said in the past the Uighur's have suffered human rights abuses.  Meanwhile, Cui's statements come only a day after Pres Trump said an interim trade agreement between the 2 countries could likely be delayed until the US presidential election next year.  The trade war between China & the US has persisted now for 17 months, with the US looking to put an end to what it says is Chinese efforts to steal US technology in a power move to take over the global marketplace.  At the same time, anti-gov protests in Hong Kong continue to divide the 2 countries on issues of human rights, with Beijing considering US actions as an interference into its national issues.  On Tues, the House of Representatives voted in favor for a bill that would force Trump & his administration to take a tougher stance on China's human rights abuses on Uighur Muslim minorities, with China warning a day later that such legislation will impact the 2 countries cooperation & making an end to the trade war nearly impossible in the short term.  Cui didn't touch on those specifics, but did say that reports on the Uighurs & Hong Kong demonstrations have been widely exaggerated in Western news media.  ``Facts are facts no matter how much fake news is generated,'' Cui added.

China says US trade deal must come before 'destructive forces' ruin talks


The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, hitting their lowest level in 7 months, suggesting the labor market remains solid even as the economy is slowing.  Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 10K to a seasonally adjusted 203K last week  the lowest level since mid-Apr, the Labor Dept said.  The forecast called for claims increasing to 215K.  Claims data tend to be volatile around holidays like last week’s' Thanksgiving Day, which was later this year compared to 2018.  This can throw off the model that the gove uses to strip out seasonal fluctuations from the data.  The 4-week moving average of initial claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell 2K to 217K last week.  The claims data has no bearing on Nov's employment report, which is which will be released tomorrow.  The forecast for nonfarm payrolls is for an increase to 180K jobs in Nov, boosted by the return of about 46K striking General Motors (GM) workers.  The 40-day strike had helped to hold job growth down to 128K in Oct.  Employment gains have slowed this year, averaging 167K per month compared with an average monthly gain of 223K in 2018, in part because of a 17-month trade war between the US & China, ebbing demand & a shortage of workers.  But the pace of hiring has been more than the roughly 100K jobs needed per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population.  The unemployment rate is forecast holding at 3.6% in Nov.  The claims report also showed the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid rose 51K to 1.69M for the week ended Nov 23.  The 4-week moving average of the continuing claims was unchanged at 1.68M.

US weekly jobless claims drop to seven-month low

Factory orders rose 0.3% in Oct, the Commerce Dept said.  This is the first gain in 3 months.  Orders in Sep were revised to a 0.8% drop compared with the previous estimate of a 0.6% fall.  The forecast called for a 0.2% rise.  Durable goods orders rose a revised 0.5%, down slightly from last week's initial estimate of a 0.6% rise.  Orders for nondurable goods were flat in the month. 

U.S. factory orders rise in October


This looks like a boring day for stocks.  Most the excitement is in DC & traders are not paying a lot of attention to it.  Tomorrow's jobs report will get plenty of attention.  Meanwhile the bulls are keeping the stock averages at essentially record highs.

Dow Jones Industrials








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