Thursday, December 12, 2019

Marlkets jump after Trump tweets a China deal is "very close"

Dow shot up 218, advancers over decliners 5-2 & NAZ gained 72.  The MLP index rose 2+ to the 212s (still depressed as shown below) & the REIT index fell 2+ to the 395s.  Junk bond funds inched higher again while Treasuries were sold.  Oil went up to the 59s & gold slid back 3 to 1471.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil59.48
+0.72+1.2%

GC=FGold  1,475.30
+0.30+0.0%






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Stocks opened lower, but turned higher after Pres Trump said the US & China are "getting very close" to a big trade deal.  The pres & his top trade advisers are set to meet at the White House today to discuss whether to forge ahead with the 15% tariff on $160B of Chinese goods.  Commodities were higher with gold up fractionally at $1476 an ounce & West Texas Intermediate crude oil up 1% at $59.37 a barrel.  Treasuries fell, running the yield on the 10-year note up 5 basis points to 1.84%.  France's CAC & Germany's DAX both fell 0.2% while Britain's FTSE gained 0.4% as voters went to the polls to vote on the next prime minister.  In Asia, Japan's Nikkei edged higher, Hong Kong's Hang Seng was up 1.3%, while the Shanghai Composite was down 0.3%.

Stocks surge after Trump says US 'very close' to big China trade deal


Pres & US trade negotiators are scheduled to meet at the White House to finalize their plan for new China tariffs set to take effect this weekend.  The US is scheduled to impose 15% duties on $160B of Chinese consumer products such as smartphones, laptops, other electronics & clothes.  The American trade team has given no indication they plan to postpone the levies, despite speculation to the contrary amid ongoing talks with Beijing.  Team members have insisted the tariffs are set to hit at 12:01 a.m. ET on Dec 15.  Meeting with Trump will be Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin & White House advisers Larry Kudlow & Peter Navarro.  They're expected to give differing views on what to do about the tariffs, which would escalate a trade war that business leaders are eager to end.  After the levies were announced, Beijing threatened to respond by adding tariffs of 5% & 10% on $75B of US products.  Still, Chinese Pres Xi Jinping has taken a number of steps to show good faith as negotiations on a broad trade agreement progress, including waiving its tariffs on US soybeans & pork & ramping up purchases of the former.  While China has insisted that the US roll back previously-imposed duties on Bs of $s in goods, Trump has said that's not something he's interested in doing.  There are signs that the 2 economic superpowers are moving closer to a partial trade deal, however. Sen Chuck Grassley said yesterday that he doesn’t think the tariffs will hit Chinese goods on Sun.  “A conversation I had Monday, that I won’t say who it was with, didn’t deal with tariffs, but it would tell me that tariffs will not be imposed on Dec. 15, and we could possibly be close to an agreement with China,” he added.

Trump meets with top trade advisers to strategize before major China tariff deadline


Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue says he is “hopeful” that China doesn't follow thru on retaliatory tariffs planned for US agriculture products on Dec 15.  China is set to place levies of 10% on more than 700 US agriculture & 5% tariffs on over 2K products if the US goes forward with new duties on Chinese imports slated to hit the same day.  “We would love to have some resolution,” Perdue said.  As negotiations progress on a trade agreement addressing months of conflict between the 2 countries, Chinese Pres Xi Jinping has waived tariffs on US soybeans & pork & ramped up purchases of the former.  "Maybe that’s a good faith signal," Perdue added.  "We hope it is."  US farmers have been a casualty of the trade dispute, seeing soybean shipments to China, their biggest customer, dwindle to zero in late 2018 & early 2019 as Beijing retaliated for US tariffs.  Pres Trump extended 2 separate lifelines to US farmers in an effort to cushion the blow.  In May, he provided $16B of aid originally & in Jul, he announced another $16B package.  The pres is set to meet with US trade negotiators at the White House today to discuss the 15% tariffs planned for $160B of Chinese products at 12:01 a.m. ET Sun.  The administration has insisted that it's set to move full speed ahead with the duties.  But Sen Chuck Grassley said that the tariffs likely won't be imposed.  Such an outcome would be welcomed by America's farmers.  “Farmers would rather have trade than aid, and we hope we get trade with that China deal," Perdue said.

US hopes China won't hit farmers with new tariffs: Agriculture chief Perdue


China has raised "important concerns'' with Boeing (BA), a Dow stock, regarding design changes proposed to end the grounding of the Boeing 737 MAX airliner, Beijing's aviation regulator said, declining to say when it might fly in China again.  The remarks broke months of public silence from China, the first country to ground the 737 MAX in Mar following the 2nd deadly crash involving the model in less than 5 months.  "Boeing is currently upgrading its software to the 737 MAX, and it is still a work in progress. The CAAC has raised our important concerns on areas such as system reliability and safety assessment,'' Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) spokesman Liu Lusong told reporters.  The 737 MAX would need to be re-certified & pilots given comprehensive & effective training before it could fly in China, he reiterated.  Chinese airlines had 97 737 MAX jets in operation before the model was grounded, the most of any country.  Li Xiaojin, a Chinese aviation expert, said the country's airlines & passengers were taking a hit from the grounding alongside BA because it had crimped aviation growth.  He said the causes of 2 crashes that killed 346 needed to be investigated with effective measures put in place to prevent another one.  China in Apr said it had set up a task force to review design changes submitted by BA.  The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) will not allow the 737 MAX to resume flying before the end of 2019, its chief, Steve Dickson, said yesterday.  "We continue to work with the FAA, CAAC and global regulators on addressing their concerns in order to safely return the MAX to service,'' BA said today.  FAA approval would allow the 737 MAX to resume flights in the US, but individual national regulators could keep the planes grounded pending completion of their own reviews.  BA stock fell 1.22. 
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club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/BA?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

China raises red flag on Boeing's 737 Max rehab attempt


Nothing like encouraging words from Trump on progress with the China trade bill to stimulate stock buying.  But the next 2 stories above remind everybody that there are a lot of moving parts in this deal.  More will be disclosed after today's strategy meeting in DC.  While  the Dow is back over 28K, it has pulled back 100 from the early highs about ½ an hour ago!!  Traders are nervous.

Dow Jones Industrials








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