Friday, December 4, 2020

Markets advance despite a disappointing jobs report for November

Dow climbed 164, advancers over decliners better than 3-1 & NAZ added 65 to another record.  The MLP index jumped 4+ to the 151s (not seen since early Jun) & the REIT index gained 4+ to the 375s for another multi-month high.   Junk bond funds did little in early trading & Treasuries were soldl again (more below).  Oil rose to 46 & gold retreated 7 to 1833.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

CL=FCrude Oil45.98
+0.34+0.7%



































GC=FGold   1,839.20
 -1.90 -0.1%






























 

 




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The US economy added just 245K jobs in Nov, sharply missing expectations & pointing to a slowdown in the labor market's recovery from the coronavirus pandemic as a surge of new infections triggered a fresh wave of shutdowns by state & local govs.  The Labor Dept's monthly payroll report also showed the unemployment rate fell to 6.7% from 6.9%.  THe forecast called for the report to show that unemployment dropped to 6.8% & the economy adding 469K jobs.  The figures come amid a wave of coronavirus cases & the deadliest 3-day stretch since the pandemic began earlier this year.  More than 100K people are hospitalized in the US & more than 210K new cases were reported on yesterday alone, according Johns Hopkins University.  One stark forecast by the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention shows that as many as 19K people could die from COVID-19 during the week of Christmas.  US employers made 610K new hires in Oct, revised data shows, leaving Nov as the 5th consecutive month that job growth has cooled since the economy added a combined 7.5M workers in May & Jun.  In total, the US has recovered roughly ½ of the 22M jobs lost during the first 2 months of the pandemic.  There are still about 9.8M more Americans out of work than there were in Feb before the crisis began.  Notable job gains took place in the transportation & warehousing industry, which added 145K new employees last month, boosted by an increase in couriers & messengers, as well as warehousing & storage.   Professional & business services rose by 60K, with roughly ½ of the gains occurring in temporary help services, while health care added 46K jobs.  But the leisure & hospitality industry, one of the hardest hit by the pandemic, added just 31K jobs last month, while retail lost 35K jobs -- a potential sign of trouble ahead of the pivotal holiday shopping season.

US added 245,000 jobs in Nov. as COVID surge threatens to undermine recovery

Treasury yields climbed as the disappointing US jobs report boosted expectations for further fiscal stimulus.  The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 5 basis points to 0.975%, its highest level since Nov 10 & the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond jumped 7 basis points to 1.741%.  Yields move inversely to prices.  The US economy added 245K jobs in Nov.  That's well below the estimate of 440K.  The jobless rate decreased to 6.7% from 6.9% in Oct.  The unemployment rate met expectations, though it fell along with a drop in the labor force participation rate to 61.5%.  The worse-than-expected jobs report could put pressure on lawmakers who resumed negotiations in recent days over a much-needed stimulus package.  House Speaker Nancy Pelosi & Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell spoke on the phone yesterday for the first time since at least the presidential election.  Pelosi & Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer backed a bipartisan $908B stimulus package, while McConnell released his own roughly $500B plan.

10-year Treasury yield rises to a 3-week high after U.S. jobs report

US factory goods orders rose for the 6th straight month in Oct, the Commerce Dept reported.  Orders for manufactured goods rose 1% after a 1.3% gain in the prior month.  The manufacturing sector, which has experience with controlled environments, has been able to adjust to the coronavirus pandemic while the service industry has struggled.  However, economists are worried that orders may dry up as COVID-19 cases skyrocket.  The forecast was expecting a 0.8% gain in Oct.  Underneath the headlines, durable goods orders rose 1.3%, in Oct unrevised from last week's initial reading.  Orders for nondurable goods were up 0.7% in the month.  Orders for nondefense capital goods, excluding aircraft, rose a revised 0.8% in Oct, up slightly from the prior estimate of an 0.7% rise.

Factory orders record sixth straight monthly gain in October 

The bulls are in command of the stock market & investors are buying stocks even after a dreary jobs report.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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