Thursday, December 10, 2020

Markets waffle while relief bill languishes

Dow dropped 69, declines slightly ahead of advancers & NAZ rose 66.  The MLP index went up 5 to the 152s & the REIT index was off 1+ to the 366s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were purchased.  Oil jumped up 1+ to the 46s & gold continued steady at 1838 (more on both below).

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Few signs of progress toward a coronavirus relief deal emerged as Congress inches closer to letting Ms of Americans fall deeper into financial peril.  They will have to wait longer for those guys to figure out how to help them.  After votes today, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, told representatives the chamber would adjourn until at least Tues pending an agreement on pandemic aid & full-year gov funding.  The House's move to end work for the week came as Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's staff informed congressional leadership offices that Senate Reps likely would not support a $908B bipartisan proposal.  His plan to brush aside the plan, which members of his caucus have helped to craft.  Congressional leaders continue to stress the importance of approving a rescue package in the coming days to prevent 12M Americans from losing unemployment benefits & stop families across the country from getting tossed out of their homes.  Despite a flurry of activity to try to reach a deal, lawmakers still have not resolved disputes that have driven months of failure to respond to a once-in-a-century health & economic crisis.  It remains unclear what kind of package could garner the support of both the GOP-controlled Senate & Dem-held House.  Today, Dems again endorsed the bipartisan talks.  Those discussions, however, still have not yielded legislation as lawmakers struggle to write provisions related to state & local gov relief & GOP-backed legal immunity for businesses.  Speaking on the Senate floor today, Minority Leader Chuck Schumer described the bipartisan negotiations as “the only real game in town” to craft a bill that could get thru a divided Congress.  He contended McConnell has tried to trip up those talks in favor of a plan that includes only policies Reps support.  McConnell said he hopes “our colleagues let Congress deliver more help soon.”  “A lot of Americans simply can’t afford to wait,” he added.

House adjourns until next week as deadline looms and millions of Americans await Covid relief

As questions loom on Capitol Hill over whether or not there will be 2nd stimulus checks, one senator is introducing a bill to make those payments a reality.  Sen Josh Hawley said that his plan for 2nd checks includes $1200 per individual, $2400 per couple & $500 per child.  “The most important thing that Congress can do is send direct assistance checks to every working family who needs them,” he said.  Hawley added that he will not be discouraged if Congress cannot come to a compromise on the ongoing coronavirus relief negotiations.  “If Congress cannot agree, I will go to the floor and ask for an up-or-down vote on direct assistance to families,” Hawley continued.  Earlier this week, Hawley urged Pres Turmp to reject Covid legislation that did not include a 2nd round of checks.  His plan for checks are intended to mirror the first payments sent out via the CARES Act this spring.  “Every senator voted for it,” Hawley said of that legislation, & the pres supports it.

Missouri Republican Sen. Hawley unveils plan for second $1,200 stimulus checks

The federal gov ran a budget deficit of $145B in Nov, down from $209B in the same month last year, the Treasury Dept said.  The Oct fiscal YTD deficit widened to $429B from $343B in the same period last year.  Receipts in Nov totaled $220B, down only slightly from $225B in the same month of last year.  Revenue is only down 4% over the first 2 months of this fiscal year despite the pandemic.  Outlays totaled $365B in Nov, also down from $434B in the same month last year.  Spending has risen for farm programs & for the Dept of Health & Human Services, the govt agency in charge of the response to the pandemic.  Calendar issues that shifted payments between Nov & Dec in each of the past 2 years affected the data.  The gov continued to spend more than it takes in each month partly in an effort to get the economy over the pandemic.  The deficit topped $3T in the fiscal year that ended on Sep 30.  It was the largest deficit as a percentage of GDP since 1945.  The deficit is expected to narrow to $1.7T this fiscal year, according to the Congressional Budget Office.  Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has told Congress that now is not the time to worry about returning the deficit to a sustainable level, but he indicated there will come a time that spending will have to be lowered & revenues increased.

U.S. November budget deficit narrows to $145.3 billion vs $208.8 billion year-ago

Gold futures finished modestly lower, with the haven metal posting a 2nd consecutive decline, pressured by the potential rollout of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US which may support the economic recovery.  The US is awaiting a decision from the Food & Drug Administration (FDA) after a review of the coronavirus vaccine candidate from a partnership of Pfizer (PFE) & Germany's BioNTech (BNTX).  The UK on Tues began using the vaccine.  Expectations that the FDA will grant emergency approval for the vaccine offset early today gains for gold that came on the heels of the ECB's expansion & extension of stimulus efforts, in a move to counter the impact of a resurgence of COVID-19 cases on the economy.  Progress on a vaccine rollout offers the prospect of a return to economic normality & less need of a safe haven like gold, but expectations for greater spending by govs to combat the economic damage from the pandemic has helped to buttress gold prices which are trading higher month to date.   Meanwhile, a fiscal relief package is still being negotiated by US lawmakers as they attempt to coalesce around an coronavirus spending package that could total some $900B to provide further aid to workers & businesses.  Feb gold fell $1 to settle at $1837 an ounce, the lowest finish for a most-active contract since Dec 2.  Data on weekly US jobless benefit claims also contributed to gold's price gains, as claims surged to a nearly 3-month high of 853K, up 137K last week.

Gold ends lower for a second session on expectations for a U.S. vaccine rollout

Oil futures settled higher, with the global Brent crude benchmark above $50 for the first time in 9 months, on progress toward a US COVID-19 vaccine that may lead to a boost in the economy next year.  Brent oil had finished yesterday a couple pennies higher & US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude saw a modest decline, mostly shaking off pressure from a sharp rise in US crude inventories, the largest weekly increase since Apr.  WTI crude for Jan delivery rose $1.26 (2.8%) to settle at $46.78 a barrel.  The global benchmark, Feb Brent crude rose $1.39 (2.8%) to $50.25 a barrel.  Prices for WTI & Brent, based on the front months, marked their highest settlements since Mar 4.

Global oil prices settle above $50 for the first time since March on vaccine optimism 

The Dow traded all day with modest losses in the red while NAZ was in the black.  The lackluster performance in DC seemed to carry over to traders in the Dow stocks.  The markets also missed encouraging news about the virus vaccines today.  Maybe tomorrow.

Dow Jones Industrials








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