Monday, December 21, 2020

Markets rebound with concerns about a new virus strain in the UK

Dow finished up 37 (above 30K), decliners over advancers about 2-1 & NAZ fell 13.  The MLP index slid back 3 to the 142s & the REIT index lost 3 to the 362s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries edged higher in price.  Oil retreated 1+ to the 47s & gold was off 8 to1880 (more on both below).

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Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said a fresh round of $600 stimulus checks could start going out to Americans as soon as next week, much faster than the first batch of payments that Congress approved earlier this year.  “People are going to see this money [at] the beginning of next week,” he added.  “Much needed relief — and just in time for the holidays.”  Congress reached on a $900B COVID relief deal, the first substantial federal aid package since lawmakers passed the CARES Act in Mar.  If passed by the House & Senate today as expected, the legislation would extend aid to Ms of Americans still reeling from the pandemic by providing a fresh round of stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits & money for small businesses, as well as new funding for struggling industries, tax breaks, vaccine distribution & education & health care.  Lawmakers have not yet released the text of the legislation, but the stimulus checks are expected to follow the same eligibility formula as the first round –although they'll be ½ the size of the $1200 payments sent out earlier this year.  “The good news is this is a very, very fast way of getting money into the economy. Let me emphasize: People are going to see this money at the beginning of next week,” Mnuchin said, adding: “People go out and spend this money, and that helps small business and that helps getting more people back to work. So it’s very fast, it’s money that gets recirculated in the economy.”

Mnuchin says coronavirus stimulus checks could arrive next week

The urgently needed shots against the fast-spreading deadly disease began shipment yesterday & are expected to be administered to the nation's most vulnerable populations just 3 days after receiving an emergency use authorization from the Food & Drug Administration.  The federal gov is expecting to roll out nearly 8M doses of COVID-19 vaccines this week, between products from Pfizer (PFE) & Moderna (MRNA), according to Gen Gustave Perna, chief operating officer for Operation Warp Speed.  The news comes after an independent advisory panel to the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention voted yesterday to recommend the next wave of vaccines go to front-line essential workers and people over the age of 75.  This group would comprise of an estimated 51M people & stand in line behind about 3M nursing home residents & 21M front-line medical workers who held first priority for PPFE initial wave of vaccines rolled out last week.  However, the panel, Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), noted there will likely be overlap between phases.  So far, the US has distributed over 2.8M doses of COVID-19 vaccines, & 556K people have received the first of their 2-dose vaccinations.

First Moderna COVID-19 vaccinations starting Monday

Pres Trump's coronavirus vaccine czar said that he expects PFE & MRNA Covid-19 shots will be effective against a new mutation of the virus found in the UK.  The comment came after the UK on Sat said it identified a new mutation of the virus that can spread more quickly than previous variants.  Countries including Italy, Germany, Canada & Israel have barred flights from the UK following reports of the new strain.  The mutations include changes to the spike protein that the virus uses to infect human cells.  The vaccines induce an immune response against several structures found around the spike protein, a multifunctional mechanism that allows the virus to enter the host, Dr Moncef Slaoui, chief science advisor of Trump's vaccine program Operation Warp Speed, said.  The chances one set of mutations would completely alter those structures “are extremely low,” he added.  Both PFE & MRNA vaccine use messenger RNA, or mRNA, technology.  It's a new approach to vaccines that uses genetic material – in this case, a harmless piece of spike protein – to provoke an immune response against the virus.  Slaoui said he spoke with UK health regulators today about the new strain.  He said to date, there is no “hard evidence” the virus is more easily transmitted than the original strain of the disease.

Trump Covid vaccine czar says Pfizer and Moderna shots should work to prevent new strain

The need for procrastinating shoppers to get gifts under the tree in time for Christmas was more compelling this year than snagging Black Friday doorbusters.  The number of shoppers who turned up at stores on the final Sat before Christmas — known as “Super Saturday” in the retail industry — fell from a year ago, but the declines weren't as steep as those seen on the Fri after Thanksgiving.  In fact, shoppers in the Northeast may have found parking spots at malls hard to come by on Sat, as snow started to melt from a massive storm that barreled along the East Coast earlier in the week.  There were also lines outside of stores observing capacity restrictions & shelves were bare in categories like board games & toys.  These familiar holiday scenes were likely a welcome sight for retailers amid signs that the economic recovery that began in the summer has been faltering as Covid cases continue to surge around the country.  RetailNext, which provides cameras, software & analytics to retailers, said the number of shoppers fell 40.9% compared with the last Sat before Christmas in 2019.  By comparison, traffic was down 48% on Black Friday this year from a year ago, RetailNext said.  Black Friday can often be the busiest shopping day of the year, with Super Saturday trailing behind. This year, amid the Covid health crisis, stores on Thanksgiving weekend didn't see crowds of people fighting to get the best deals on flat screen TVs & kitchen appliances.  Instead, the holiday season began earlier, with retailers enticing consumers with early holiday deals starting in Oct.  As a result, consumer spending has been more spread out.

Last-minute shoppers turned out at malls as Christmas approaches

Gold prices finished modestly lower, knocked down as the $ staged a mini-rebound amid growing concerns about a possible variant of the novel strain of coronavirus that causes COVID-19.  Worries about increased lockdown procedures in London & other parts of the world drove investors to the perceived safety of $s & compelled some traders to momentarily sell some of their bullion holdings.  Bullion has tended to slide, at least momentarily, as worries about the virus have caused broader selling in risk assets & prompted some flight to cash & out of precious metals.  Virus concerns overshadowed news that Congress has reached an agreement on a roughly $900B coronavirus relief package, which has been viewed as a part of the near-term bullish thesis for bullion buying, supporting expectations for more gov spending & a deflating greenback.  Precious metals are seen as a hedge against currency-devaluing fiscal spending & gold, in particular, has benefited from that idea in recent trade.  Feb gold lost $6 (0.3%) lower to settle at $1882 an ounce, retreating from around its highest level since Nov after the metal on Fri logged a 2.5% weekly gain based on the most-active contract for the metal.  Gold's slide today also comes as the $ regained some lost ground after a steady retreat for the US unit.  The buck was up 0.2%, as investors turned to $s & worries about a potentially faster-spreading coronavirus strain & tightened lockdown measures in Europe.

Gold prices end lower to start Christmas week as dollar pops higher

US oil prices ended sharply lower, but off their steepest declines, amid reports that a variant of the novel strain of coronavirus that causes COVID-19 discovered in the UK could pose another hurdle for demand of the commodity.  US oil prices for Feb delivery finished $1.27 (2.6%) lower at $47.97 a barrel.  The daily slide represented the sharpest for the most-active contract for West Texas Intermediate oil since a 4.3% slide put in on Nov 6.  Those living in London & much of the southeast of England were placed under tighter restrictions ahead of the Christmas holidays, shutting nonessential shops & banning nonessential travel.  Several European countries & Canada closed their borders to UK travelers, including France, which blocked air, sea & land traffic from the country. 

U.S. oil notches sharpest daily slide in over 6 weeks as viral spread sparks fresh demand worries

It was a day of good news on the COVID-19 front, as new daily cases, deaths & hospitalizations all fell for a 3rd-straight day, just as vaccine reinforcements were being shipped out.  It wasn't all good news, however, as global equity markets were spooked by reports out of the UK about a new fast-spreading strain of coronavirus that causes COVID-19.  The worries of a new strain & surging case numbers led the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson to hold an emergency meeting Mon, as France & a growing list of countries banned travel from the UK.  But back on the bright side, after being granted emergency use authorization for its COVID-19 vaccine late Fri,  MRNA started shipping its mRNA-1273 out over the weekend.  And PFE & BNTX said today that the European Commission has granted conditional marketing authorization (CMA) to the companies’ COVID-19 vaccine, BMT162b2.  The CMA is valid in all 27 EU member states.  In the US, 21 states that have publicly reported vaccinations, according to the latest data provided by Johns Hopkins University (JHU).  A total of 144K doses were reported to have been administered, led by Florida with 33K doses & Texas with 26K doses.  JHU said its effort to record vaccinations will expand as more US states make data available & new vaccines are approved.

U.S. COVID-19 cases, deaths and hospitalizations fall again, as vaccine reinforcements are coming

The virus news from the UK on the new strain of virus is scary, but markets adjusted.  The Dow rebounded 500 from early lows to finish with a modest gain & the NAZ had small loss.  The averages continue to be near record highs as investors keep buying stocks.

Dow Jones Industrials








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