Tuesday, December 29, 2020

Markets turn negative as hopes for a stimulus bill fade

Dow fell 68, decliners over advancers 2-1 & NAZ dropped 49.  The MLP index slid back fractionally to the 138s & the REIT index gave back 3 to the 367s.  Junk bond funds were about even & Treasuries edged lower.  Oil went up to 48 & gold crawled up 2 to 1883 (more on both below).

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Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said that the Senate will address Pres Trump's request to increase stimulus checks sent to Americans to $2000 but did not commit to pushing the issue -- as Sen Bernie Sanders & Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer each urged the body to put the House bill on $2000 stimulus checks up for quick consideration.  McConnell objected to those attempts.  Schumer's request would have passed the stimulus checks yesterday.  Sanders' request would have set a vote on the bill for stimulus checks for tomorrow.  McConnell acknowledged that Trump "would like further direct financial support for American households."  He also mentioned that Trump wants Congress to address Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act, which provides protections for companies that host 3rd-party content on their platforms & that Trump wants Congress to look into election security.  "Those are the three important subjects the president has linked together," McConnell said.  "This week the Senate will begin a process to bring these three priorities into focus."  Notably, McConnell did not promise action on the $2000 stimulus checks.  Sanders then objected to McConnell's attempt to quickly move to a vote to override Trump's veto of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA).  Sanders' objection to McConnell's attempt to quickly consider the NDAA veto will force the Senate to likely take that vote on New Year's Eve.McConnell is likely to prioritize the stimulus checks behind the defense bill, meaning that a vote on that would happen after -- but the current Congress must adjourn by Jan 3, condensing the timeline for any remaining efforts in the Senate.

McConnell blocks quick vote on $2,000 COVID-19 stimulus checks

The Federal Reserve announced that it has extended the termination date of Main Street Lending Program facilities to Jan 8, 2021.  The extension will allow the Fed more time to review fund loans that were submitted to the Main Street lender portal by Dec 14, the Fed said.  The lending program first announced in Apr is meant to help facilitate lending to small- & medium-sized US businesses amid the coronavirus pandemic.

Fed extends Main Street Lending Program

With only a few days to go, the US will likely fall short of its goal to vaccinate 20M Americans by the year's end as the nation embarks on what will be a historic campaign to inoculate hundreds of Ms of people against the coronavirus by the middle of next year.  2 Covid-19 vaccines have now been given emergency authorization from the Food & Drug Administration, paving the way for the first handful of frontline health-care workers & vulnerable long-term care residents to be inoculated against the virus.  The Trump administration's vaccine program, Operation Warp Speed, planned to provide 40M doses of vaccines between the 2 companies by the end of the year, which would’ve been enough for roughly 20M people since each drug requires 2 shots at differing intervals.  However, it seemed far short of that goal:  The Centers for Disease Control & Prevention said just over 11.4M doses as of today had been distributed since Dec 13 but only about 2.1M had been administered.  The CDC noted a number of reasons for the considerable difference between the number of distributed doses that have yet to be administered.  Part of the problem is a lag in data reporting, the agency said, while other issues lie with how jurisdictions are managing their allocations.  The launch of the federal gov's partnership with major pharmacy chains, which will be tasked with vaccinating long-term care residents, is still pending.  But even if there’s undercounting, the US is still “below where we want to be,” White House coronavirus advisor Dr Anthony Fauci said.

U.S. likely to fall short of goal to vaccinate 20 million people against Covid before end of year

Gold futures settled higher, posting a slight gain as the $ softened & gains for equity markets in the US faded in the PM.  Gold for Feb finished up $2 to reach $1882 an ounce, following a modest decline yesterday.  A weaker $, which can make commodities priced in the currency more attractive to overseas buyers, combined with a retreat in stocks from yesterday's earlier highs, helped buttress gold's price on the day.  The Dow, the S&P 500 & the NAZ were trading in negative territory yesterday after trading to intraday records earlier in the session.  Equity markets tilted lower as Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell blocked Senator Chuck Schumer's attempt to push thru a bill in the Senate that would increase direct payments in the year-end coronavirus relief packagel to $2000 by unanimous vote.  Yesterday, the House passed a similar bill to raise direct payments to Americans as a part of the fiscal spending package signed by Pres Trump over the weekend.

Gold logs slight gain as stock-market rally fades Tuesday, dollar softens

Oil futures pushed higher, bouncing after the previous session's setback, as traders cheered another round of pandemic aid spending in the US.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Feb rose 55¢ (1.2%) to $48.17 a barrel.  Feb Brent, the global benchmark, was up 58¢ (1.1%) at $51.44 a barrel.  Pres Trump finally signed legislation Sun providing $900B in aid to individuals & businesses & $1.4T to fund gov agencies.  Trump last week blindsided lawmakers from both parties by criticizing the legislation, which his administration helped negotiate, & insisted that checks to be paid to households be raised from $600 to $2000.  The Dem-controlled House yesterday approved legislation that would increase the payments to $2000, but the proposal faces an uncertain future in the Rep-controlled Senate.  Equities rallied yesterday, with major benchmarks notching a new round of records.   Oil initially rallied, but then pulled back to end the day lower.

Oil ends higher on optimism inspired by U.S. fiscal stimulus

Investors have been enthusiastic & anxious to bid stocks higher to new records.  However it's difficult to make sense about what's going on DC with the Bs & Bs of $s they are throwing around recklessly.  As usual, final decisions will be made in the last minutes of 2020, if not later.  That's routine in dysfunctional DC.

Dow Jones Industrials








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