Thursday, December 17, 2020

Markets climb higher on stimulus hopes

Dow gained 148 to aanother record, advancers over decliners about 2-1 & NAZ added 106 for another record.  The MLP index lost 1 to the 146s & the REIT index went up 3+ to the 374s.  Junk bond funds edged higher & Treasuries slid lower.  Oil continued above 49 & gold soared 29 to 1889 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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The average American willm spend $1000-2,000 on holiday gifts in 2020 despite pandemic-induced financial hardship that has fallen on many families, research shows.  New data from product review website Reviews.org shows that the average American expects to spend $1865 on gifts this holiday season while the National Retail Federation (NRF) said in an Oct report that consumers were planning on spending an average of about $1000 on gifts & only seasonal purchases.  The NRF also found that overall consumer holiday spending in the US will likely increase 3.6-5.2% compared to 2019 to as much as $767B, according to a Nov report.  "We know this holiday season will be unlike any other, and retailers have planned ahead by investing billions of dollars to ensure the health and safety of their employees and customers," CEO Matthew Shay said.  He continued: "Consumers have shown they are excited about the holidays and are willing to spend on gifts that lift the spirits of family and friends after such a challenging year. We expect a strong finish to the holiday season, and will continue to work with municipal and state officials to keep retailers open and the economy moving forward at this critical time."  Both surveys found that Americans will likely shop more online in 2020, likely due in part to COVID-19 lockdowns & an aversion to shopping in-person as cases spike in certain areas.  Reviews.org found that about ½ of the average American's holiday expenditures will go toward electronic purchases.  By comparison, the average American planned to spend about $1050 on gifts in 2019, NRF data published last year shows.  About one in every 5 Americans say ½ of the gifts they buy will be digital, including e-gift cards, subscription services & video game redemptions, according to Reviews.org.  "Given the pandemic, there is uncertainty about consumers’ willingness to spend, but with the economy improving most have the ability to spend," NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in Nov.  "Consumers have experienced a difficult year but will likely spend more than anyone would have expected just a few months ago."  He added that NRF expects there to be "a psychological factor that [consumers] owe it to themselves and their families to have a better-than-normal holiday."

Average American spending between $1,000 - $2,000 on holiday gifts in 2020, research shows

Gold prices rallied, with a steep decline in the $, the Federal Reserve's ongoing loose monetary policy & expectations for a new fiscal stimulus package lifting bullion to its highest finish in almost 6 weeks.  Gold prices also traded well above their 50-day moving average, a level investors view as a short-term bullish signal, even if the metal only briefly managed to trade above the key $1900 mark.  Feb gold rose $31 (1.7%) to settle at $1890 an ounce after touching a high of $1902.  Prices based on the most-active contract finished at their highest since Nov 6.  They trade well above its 50-day moving average presently at $1874.  For the week thus far, gold is on pace for a weekly gain of 2.9%.  A string of US economic data did little to alter the mood with traders.  A report on housing starts showed a 1.2% climb in Nov, with building permits rising 6.2% on the month to 1.64M.  Separately, a report on weekly unemployment claims showed that new claims rose to the highest level since early Sep, with initial claims rising to 885K from 862K.  That said, continuing state claims fell 273K to a 1.55M rate.

Gold rallies to a near 6-week high, but ends below the key $1,900 mark

Oil futures stretched their gains to a 4th straight session, as signs of progress toward another round of economic relief by US lawmakers helped to keep prices at their highest levels in more than 9 months.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Jan delivery rose 54¢ (1.1%) to settle at $48.36 a barrel, for the highest front-month contract settlement since Feb 26.  Feb Brent crude, the global benchmark, added 42¢ (0.8%) to $51.50 a barrel to log the highest finish since Mar.  Crude was lifted yesterday after the Energy Information Administration reported that US crude inventories fell by a larger-than-expected 3.1M barrels last week.  The US reported a record 247K new COVID-19 cases yesterday, data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.  There were 113K COVID-19 patients in US hospitals yesterday, up from 113K on Tues, as hospitalizations reached a record for an 11th-straight day.

Oil up a 4th straight session to settle at highest price in over 9 months

Coca-Cola (KO), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, will cut 2200 jobs in its global workforce as part of a broader restructuring plan that was accelerated by the coronavirus pandemic.  In the US, KO will use layoffs & buyouts to eliminate about 1200 jobs, accounting for about 12% of the workforce in its home market.  The company has 86K global employees.  But the pandemic battered its revenue & raised costs for the beverage giant.  About ½ of its sales typically comes from consumers drinking its beverages away from home.  In Q3 net sales slid 9%.  In total, KO expects to spend $350-550M on severance costs.  The job losses do not include the employees of its bottlers.  The stock rose 23¢.
If you would like to learn more about KO, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/KO?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Coca-Cola will cut 2,200 jobs worldwide as part of restructuring plan

Investors are a bunch of blue-eyed optimists takiing the stock averages to new records, hoping for a stimulus bill by tomorrow.  Those guys in DC are taking negotiations down to the wire, tomorrow at midnight.  Given the their track record, talks could drag into the weekend.

Dow Jones Industrials








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