Monday, March 15, 2021

Markets climb as Treasury yields steady

Dow went up 174 from buying in the last ½ hour, advancers over decliners 4-3 & NAZ gained 139.  The MLP index was steady in the 175s & the REIT index advanced 5+ to the 403s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were bid higher.  Oil pulled back in the 65s & gold rose 8 to 1727 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Pres Biden is reportedly planning to include the first major tax hike in close to 30 years in the next economic spending bill set to follow his $1.9T coronavirus relief package.  The next spending initiative — which is expected to be even bigger, costing as much as $4T — won't rely on just gov debt as a funding source & could include an increase in both the corp tax rate & the individual rate for high-income earners, according to a person familiar with the matter.  The planned changes include: raising the corp tax rate to 28% from 21%, raising the income tax rate on individuals earning more than $400K, expanding the estate tax, creating a higher capital-gains tax rate for individuals earning at least $1M annually & paring back tax preferences for so-called pass-thru businesses.  The White House did not comment.  The proposed tax increases will mostly mirror Biden's proposals during the 2020 presidential campaign, when he vowed to reverse former Pres Trump's 2017 tax cuts on "day one" of his presidency.  That includes raising the rate paid by corps & wealthy Americans & making the tax code more progressive.  Any tax increases included in the legislation would likely take effect beginning in 2022, with some lawmakers wary of raising rates until the economy more fully recovers from the coronavirus pandemic.  An analysis of the tax plan conducted by the Tax Policy Center estimated it would raise $2.1T in new revenue over a decade.  It's unclear what other measures would be included in the proposal, but on the campaign trail, Biden emphasized the need for new infrastructure investments & measures to combat climate change, as well as ways to revitalize the manufacturing industry & revamp housing, education & health care.  Raising taxes will serve as a key test for the nascent administration as it navigates a 50-50 Senate in which moderate Dem lawmakers like Joe Manchin of West Virginia & Krysten Sinema of Arizona play an outsized role.

Biden reportedly planning first major tax hike since 1993

Gold climbed, with a decline in Treasury note yields helping prices settle at their highest in almost 2 weeks, as investors awaited the outcome of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting this week for cues on the precious metal's next move.  Gold for Apr rose $9 (0.6%) to settle at $1729 an ounce, the highest most-active contract finish since Mar 2   Prices saw volatile trading after the release of US economic data, but eventually pared some of their earlier gains.  The Mar Empire State Manufacturing Index rose to a reading of 17.4 from 12.1 in Feb, the New York Fed said.  Gold ended lower Fri but posted a weekly rise of 1.3% . Gold snapped a 3-week skid of falling prices that came as Treasury yields marched higher due, in part, to rising inflation fears stoked by expectations for an accelerated economic recovery.  Higher bond yields raise the opportunity cost of holding nonyielding assets like gold.  Gold investors await the outcome of the Federal Reserve's 2-day Open Market Committee meeting which ends Wed with a statement on monetary policy.

Gold climbs to its highest finish in almost 2 weeks

Germany & France joined a fast-growing list of countries suspending the use of AstraZeneca's (AZN)  COVID-19 vaccine over reports of blood clots, as the Anglo-Swedish drug company moved to defend its shot.  The German health ministry said the gov was acting in accordance with a recommendation of the Paul Ehrlich Institute (PEI), the country's national vaccine regulator, which called for further investigation of the cases.  “After new reports of thromboses of the cerebral veins in connection with the vaccination in Germany and Europe, the PEI considers further investigations to be necessary,” said the health ministry.  France also announced it will stop administering AZN's shot, pending an assessment by the EU's medicine regulator due tomorrow, according to French Pres Emmanuel Macron.  Several other nations, including Denmark, Norway & Icleand, have temporarily halted the rollout of the vaccine as a precautionary step, following reports of blood clots, despite a lack of evidence the shot was responsible.  Other countries, including Italy & Romania have stopped using shots from one particular batch, while Austria has also halted use of doses from a single, but different, batch.  The stock rose 35¢.
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club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/AZN?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Germany and France become latest countries to halt use of AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine over blood clot concerns

Oil futures ended modestly lower, as traders gauged the latest signs on energy demand.  Brent crude failed to hold above the key $70-a-barrel threshold after briefly topping that level today.  A new round of lockdowns in Europe, amid an increase in COVID-19 cases, have raised concerns over a possible setback in energy demand.  However, economic data from China offered signs of strong demand.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Apr fell 22¢ (0.3%) to settle at $65.39 a barrel, after posting a weekly loss of 0.7% on Fri.  May Bre, the global benchmark, declined by 34¢ (0.5%) at $68.88 a barrel after tapping a session high of $70.03.  China's economic activity surged in Jan-Feb, with industrial output for the period up 35.1% from a year earlier, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, beating expectations for a 30.5% increase.  Crude has rallied in 2021, with both WTI & Brent up more than 30% in YTD, with analysts tying strength to increased demand as the global economy continues to reopen & appears set to accelerate.  Compliance with production cuts by OPEC+ have also served to underpin prices.

Oil prices decline, on track to extend last week’s loss

Popular stock averages rose in late day trading as investors were weighing optimism about rebounding global economies versus high Treasury yields.  They also worry about what Powell might say after the Wed meeting.  Dow needs less than 50 to top 33K.

Dow Jones Industrials








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