Friday, March 12, 2021

Markets fight for gains while Treasury yields climb higher

Dow jumped 292 (near session highs), advancers modestly ahead of decliners & NAZ gave back 78.  The MLP index inched higher in the 174s & the REIT index went up 5+ to the 397s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were heavily sold, bringing the yield on the 10 year Treasuring up about 11 basis points to 1.63%.  Oil was a little lower in the 65s & gold lost 1 to 1721 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Dr Scott Gottllieb said he thinks many Americans will start holding group gatherings well before Pres Bidedn's target of Independence Day.  The former Food & Drug Administration commissioner said he believes the timeline Biden laid out was too conservative compared with how people will actually behave.  “I think the majority of Americans are going to be getting together long before July,” said Gottlieb, who led the FDA.  Biden's speech last night on the pandemic sought to highlight the collective toll offering two forward-looking public health targets.  The first: Directing states to make all adults eligible for coronavirus vaccines by May 1.  The 2nd: A goal for Americans to safely gather in small groups with friends & loved ones to celebrate the Fourth of Jul.  “I think we should be giving public health advice that is in line with where people are,” Gottlieb said.  ”[When] people feel the risk declining because they’ve been vaccinated, because they see infection levels going down in many parts of the country, they’re going to be willing to take more risk because they sense that their vulnerability is declining. And you know what? They’re right.”  He predicted, “People are going to be out this summer and they’re going to be out well before July.”  Responding to Gottlieb's remarks, the White House said the timing of gatherings is a question for health & medical experts at the CDC.

Dr. Gottlieb: Americans will be getting together before Biden’s July 4 target

Gold futures were under selling pressure as gov debt resumed a selloff, pushing bond yields & the $ higher, but gold held onto a gain for the week.  Apr gold fell $2 to $1719 an ounce, after gaining pennies in the previous session.  Gold posted its first loss in 3 sessions on Friday.  For the week, based on the most-active contract prices, gold saw a gain of about 1.3%,.  Weekly gains for gold snapped a 3-week skid.  Bullion has been particularly sensitive to moves in the $ & a rise in gov debt yields, which can undercut appetite for precious metals. 

Gold logs first loss in 4 sessions as 10-year Treasury yield, dollar resume run-up

Oil futures ended lower, pulling back a day after a rally led by optimism over US gasoline demand helped push the global crude benchmark to its highest close since May 2019.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Apr fell 41¢ (0.6%) to settle at $65.61 a barrel.  May Brent crude also declined 41¢ (0.6%) to $69.22 a barrel, after posting yesterda the highest finish for a front-month contract since May 2019.  For the week, front-month US benchmark crude prices finished 0.7% lower & global benchmark Brent crude lost 0.2% to snap a 7-week winning streak.  News this week of attacks on Saudi oil facilities, blamed on Iran-backed Houthi rebels, didn't provide any lasting support to oil prices.  In a monthly report issued yesterday, OPEC boosted its outlook for 2021 demand growth.

Oil ends lower, contributing to a loss for the week

The US topped 100M Covid-19 vaccine doses administered, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC).  More than 35M people have been fully vaccinated, accounting for 13.5% of the adult US population, according to the CDC.  Over 65.9M people have received at least one shot of the 2-dose regimens, the CDC added.

U.S. tops 100 million Covid vaccine doses administered, 13% of adults now fully vaccinated

Dow was strong all day while tech shares could not find friends.  Tech stocks continue to be out of  favor this year although NAZ recovered 400 this weak.  Dow remains in favor but higher interest rates can spook investors.  Now that the the stimulus bill was passed, but probably not needed to fund mostly pork, more stimulus bills look to be distant with the economy expanding on its own steam.

Dow Jones Industrials








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