Friday, March 19, 2021

Markets edge higher after Powell 's comments to promote recovery

Dow sank 234 with selling into the close, advancers over decliners 4-3 & NAZ rose 99.  The MLP index went up 2+ to the 167s & the REIT index dropped 5+ to the 393s.  Junk bond funds continued in demand & Treasuries eased a little lower after recent gains.  Oil rebounded 1+ to the 61s & gold jumped 9 to 1741 (more below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated his commitment to an “all-in” approach to the recovery, pledging to keep policy loose.  Noting the “much improved” economy, the central bank chief said American resolve & aggressive policy have combined to make the outlook ahead brighter.  “But the recovery is far from complete, so at the Fed we will continue to provide the economy with the support that it needs for as long as it takes,” he wrote in an op-ed.  “I truly believe that we will emerge from this crisis stronger and better, as we have done so often before.”  Powell's comments came 2 days after the Fed voted to keep benchmark short-term borrowing rates anchored near zero & to continue a program that entails purchasing at least $120B a month in bonds.  Along with those measures has come a pledge from central bank officials to not change policy until the economy reaches full & inclusive employment gains, even if that means allowing inflation to run hotter than the Fed's traditional 2% target for a period of time.  Such an approach is essential to keep the recovery going, Powell said.  “The scope of the crisis required an all-in government response,” he wrote.  “Congress provided its largest economic recovery package of the postwar era. At the Fed, we used all the tools at our disposal to prevent a financial meltdown and ensure that credit could continue to flow to households and businesses.”  Powell noted that the biggest impact of the Covid-19 crisis continues to fall on those least able to bear it, underscoring the importance of aggressive policy.

Powell says the Fed is committed to using all its tools to promote recovery

Nike (NKE), a Dow stock, shares fell after the company reported mixed Q3 earnings & confirmed it was laying off employees.  NKE sai it was “focused on shifting resources and creating capacity to reinvest in our highest potential growth areas.”  “We are building a flatter, nimbler company and more quickly transforming Nike to define the marketplace of the future,” it added.  Revenue dropped 10% year over year in North America during its fiscal Q3, as backlogged ports delayed shipments.  That caused merchandise to arrive weeks late to its own stores & those of its wholesale partners & increased the risk of it winding up on the clearance rack.  Sales at its stores in Europe, Middle East & Africa dropped during the qtr due to pandemic-related closures & restrictions, too.  NKE pointed to bright spots such as the growth of its direct-to-consumer business, momentum in China & strong online sales.  The company said it hit its Q1 with $1B in online sales in North America, as consumers snapped up new sneakers & workout apparel during their time at home.  Sales shot up 51% in Greater China.  And the company expects a similar resurgence of sales as other countries recover from the pandemic.  The stock dropped 5.68 (4%).
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Nike shares fall after mixed earnings report, layoffs news

Gold futures marked their highest settlement in about3 weeks, as Treasury yields steadied after a spike in the previous session & with the yellow metal underpinned by inflation worries & jitters about this week's slump in equities.  Gold for Apr climbed by $9 (0.5%) to settle at $1741 an ounce, posting the highest most-active contract finish since Feb 25.  Prices saw a 1.3% weekly rise — the 2nd in a row.  Treasury yields steadied today, with the rate on the 10-year note around 1.717% after spiking to a 14-month high in the previous session.  Bond yields jumped yesterday after the Fed reinforced a dovish tone to its monetary policy at its meeting on Wed but expressed little concern about any tightening of financial conditions.  Higher yields can be a negative for gold because they raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.  Meanwhile, some analysts argue that, despite higher bond yields, gold still has some attraction as an inflation hedge, given the $1.9T fiscal stimulus enacted by the Biden administration this month along with the Fed's easy money policies which are expected to see US economic growth surge this year.

Gold settles at a 3-week high, up over 1% for the week

Stock-market investors poured a record amount of money into US equity mutual funds & exchange-traded funds in the past week as the Dow topped another milestone & the S&P 500 index also touched a record.  BofA Global Research said US equity inflows hit a weekly record of $57B last week, up sharply from $16.8B a week earlier. on Wed closed above the 33K for the first time, while the S&P 500 also finished at an all-time high.  The rise was largely due to bigger net inflows into the US market, which coincided with the initial distribution of stimulus checks of up to $1400 for qualified US citizens as part of the $1.9T COVID-19 relief package signed into law by Pres Biden earlier this month.  Thru Mar 17, the Treasury had distributed $242B in stimulus checks, or around 60% of the expected total.

Investors poured a record $56.8 billion into stock-market funds as stimulus checks arrive

Oil futures turned higher, but after posting losses in each of the last 5 sessions US prices were set to log their largest weekly loss since Oct, as worries over renewed lockdowns & a sluggish vaccine rollout in parts of Europe threaten energy demand.  Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated on Wed that the central bank would keep interest rates low likely well into 2023 & expected inflation to potentially average above their target of 2%.  However, Germany & other countries are now resuming coronavirus vaccinations with the AstraZeneca (AZN) vaccine, following a recommendation by European regulators that the benefits of the shot outweigh the risks.  The European Medicines Agency said Thurs that the vaccine was safe but that a link to a small number of rare blood clots reported on the continent couldn't be ruled out.  West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for Apr moved up 67¢ (1.1%) at $60.67 a barrel, giving up earlier losses after touching a low at $58.94.  The Apr contract expires at the end of Mon's session.  The May WTI , the most-actively traded contract, was up 62 (1%) at $60.68.  May Brent, the global benchmark, rose 53¢ (0.8%) at $63.81 a barrel, with prices at their lowest finish in about 6 weeks.  Both the WTI & Brent benchmarks traded around 8% lower week to date.  Yesterday, WTI futures plunged 7.1%, while Brent dropped 6.9% for its biggest one-day percentage loss since Jun.

Oil ends higher, but suffers largest weekly loss since October

A lot of the stimulus money was used to buy stocks & that influence was finished today, not to mention profit taking.  The Dow was down 150 for the week while NAZ fell 100.  Without more stimulus money, stocks might see selling next week.

Dow Jones Industrials








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