Monday, March 8, 2021

Markets jump after Senate passes stimulus bill

Dow surged 453, advancers over decliners 5-2 but NAZ fell 31.  The MLP index was steady in the 171s & the REIT index gained 5+ to the 383s.  Junk bond funds hardly budged in price & Treasuries were sold.  Oil eased back to the 65s & gold dropped 21 to 1677.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

CL=FCrude Oil65.38
  -0.71-1.1%
























GC=FGold   1,685.00
-13.50-0.8%




















 

 




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China's Feb exports grew at a record pace from a year earlier when Covid-19 battered the world's 2nd-biggest economy, customs data showed, while imports rose less sharply.  Exports in $ terms skyrocketed 155% in Feb compared with a year earlier, while imports gained 17.3%, the most since Oct 2018.  The data did not include figures for Jan alone.  In Jan-Feb, exports jumped 60.6% from a year earlier, when lockdowns to contain the pandemic paralyzed the country's economic activity.  That exceeded the forecast for a 38.9% surge.  Strong exports, which benefited from China's success in largely containing the public health crisis, have helped fuel the country's recovery from a pandemic-induced paralysis.  The surge was driven by a rebound in foreign demand, customs said, citing improvements in manufacturing industries in the EU & the US, & their increased imports of Chinese products thanks to fiscal stimulus measures.  "In addition, a majority of manufacturing employees (in China) chose to stay put over the Lunar New Year holidays," the statement continued.  "Our survey showed a lot of firms in export-oriented provinces stayed open, and orders that usually only get delivered after the new year had been delivered normally."  Chinese factory activity usually goes dormant during the Lunar New Year break, which fell in the middle of Feb this year, as workers return to their hometowns.  This year, the gov appealed to workers to avoid travelling to curb the risk of a spread of the coronavirus.  In Jan-Feb, imports increased 22.2% from a year earlier, above the 15% forecast, partly due to stockpiling of semiconductors & energy products, according to customs.  China posted a trade surplus of $103B for the first 2 months.  The forecast was for the trade surplus to narrow to $60B from $78B in Dec.  In yuan terms, exports rose 50% in the 2 months from a year earlier, while imports gained 15%.  "Due to the impact of the new coronavirus, overall trade (in yuan terms) in January-February last year fell 9.7%, and the low base was one of the reasons for the larger increase this year," customs said.  "But even when compared with normal years, such as the comparable periods in 2018 and 2019, growth in China's overall trade was around 20%."

China Feb exports post record surge from COVID-19-depressed 2020 levels

Half of US states showed double-digit growth in job listings in Feb as companies look to rehire, according to new data from CareerBuilder.  CareerBuilder CEO Irina Novoselsky comments came Fri on the heels of the Labor Dept announcing that employers added 379K jobs in Feb.  "Half of the states in the United States are seeing double-digit job posting growth, which is really a leading indicator for companies starting to get out there and looking to hire," Novoselsky said.  "We started seeing that throughout February and it's continuing in the first week of March... everything that we're seeing is continuing to show that positive momentum of job growth."  The US economy created more jobs than expected in Feb, driven by bars & restaurants rehiring tens of thousands of workers as coronavirus caseloads fell nationwide & states relaxed restrictions on business activity.  Novoselsky predicted that at the current pace, it will take about 2 years to return to pre-pandemic employment highs & noted a 195% surge in people looking for work-from-home jobs on CareerBuilder.com.  "This is going to have a big impact on companies deciding, 'Are you paying people's salaries based on where they live or where the company is based?'," Novoselsky added.  "Because as this migration starts, this is going to change on how people compete in the salaries that are given to different locations and roles, potentially."

Job postings real indicator of employment picture

The Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC) released new guidance for people who've been fully vaccinated against Covid-19, a highly anticipated step as the nation tries to ease back into normality following almost a year of restrictions due to the pandemic.  “There are some activities that fully vaccinated people can begin to resume now in the privacy of their own homes. Everyone – even those who are vaccinated – should continue with all mitigation strategies when in public settings,” CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said.  According to the guidance, fully vaccinated people can safely visit with other fully vaccinated people & some unvaccinated people inside without wearing masks or social distancing, according to the guidance.  Someone is considered fully vaccinated 2 weeks following either a single shot of Johnson & Johnson's newly authorized vaccine or 2 weeks after their 2nd shot of Moderna's (MRNA) or Pfizer's (PFE) 2-dose regimens.  Roughly 59M people in the US have received at least one shot with 31M of those people receiving 2 doses, just over 9% of the nation's population, according to the CDC, which doesn't break down which vaccine people received.  People who are fully inoculated can also visit with unvaccinated people from a single household without wearing masks or social distancing as long as they're at low risk for severe disease.  “For example, fully vaccinated grandparents can visit indoors with their unvaccinated healthy daughter and her healthy children without wearing masks or physical distancing, provided none of the unvaccinated family members are at risk of severe COVID-19,” according to the CDC guidance.  Fully vaccinated people don't have to quarantine or get tested for Covid-19 if exposed to someone with the virus as long as they're not showing symptoms, the agency advises.  However, if a vaccinated person begins to display symptoms, they should isolate themselves & get tested for Covid-19.

CDC says people who are fully vaccinated against Covid can meet safely indoors without masks

Investors were happy to see the Senate pass the bloated pork stimulus bill & are bidding stocks higher.  However tech stocks have to deal with dark clouds overhead after their spectacular run in the last year.  Brent oil, the intl standard, is flirting with 70, not seen for over a year.  Some people will be helped from more gov spending, however that also raises the specter of high inflation down the road.

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