Thursday, March 11, 2021

Markets rally, led by tech stocks

Dow gained 188 for a  new record (but with selling in the last hour), advancers over decliners 5-2 & NAZ advanced 329.  The MLP index was little changed in the 174s & the REIT index went up 4+ to the 391s.  Junk bond funds did little in terading & Treasuries were hit with limited selling.  Oil rose 1+ to 66 & gold was steady at 1721 (more on both below).

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Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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A group of Rep senators unveiled legislation this week to permanently repeal the federal estate tax, a move that's almost guaranteed to fail in the Dem-controlled Congress.  The legislation, introduced by Sens John Thune & John Kennedy & endorsed by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell would eliminate the federal tax levied on estates worth more than $11.7M after the death of the owner.  “I’ve fought hard to repeal the onerous and unfair death tax since I came to Washington, including by leading the effort in 2017 to protect more farm and ranch families from it," Thune said.  "Family-owned farms and ranches, like those in South Dakota, can bear the brunt of this tax, which oftentimes makes it difficult and costly to pass these businesses down to future generations."  Reps Jason Smith & Sanford Bishop introduced the bill in the House.  Bishop is the lone Dem sponsoring the legislation.  Critics slammed the measure as a handout to the rich:  In 2020, just 1900 estates (out of the roughly 2.8M people who died that year) owed estate taxes, according to a recent estimate.  The tax raised about $14.9B in federal revenue in 2018.  The top tax rate is currently 40%, with the first $11.7M for each spouse exempt.  That means the effective exemption for a married couple is $23.4M.  But the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) lauded the move, arguing the tax threatens more than 74K family farms across the country.  “Farmers and ranchers already face unpredictable challenges beyond our control yet persevere to protect our nation’s supply of food, fiber and renewable fuel," AFBF Pres Zippy Duvall said.  "The tax code should encourage farm business growth, not add to the uncertainty."  The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), the top small business advocacy group in the country, also praised the reintroduction of the legislation.  “Repealing the estate tax has been an important issue for small businesses and there is no better time to provide tax relief after this challenging year," Courtney Titus Brooks, the NFIB's federal gov relations manager, said.

GOP lawmakers push to permanently eliminate estate tax

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi committed to new legislation to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour after the wage hike provision was stripped from Dems' massive coronavirus relief bill.  "We will persist with the minimum wage," Pelosi told reporters.  Pelosi said she's been fighting for the $15 minimum wage increase for years & "quite frankly I think it should be higher."  She called the current "substandard" minimum wage of $7.25 "corporate welfare" & said Dem will find another path forward to raise the wages of the American people.  The federal minimum wage has not increased in more than a decade, although a growing number of states have voted to adopt their own wage increases.  There are 29 states with wages above the federal minimum wage, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.  At $14 an hour, California currently has the highest minimum wage in the nation.  Raising the minimum wage from $7.25 to $15 an hour by 2025 would cost the economy about 1.4M jobs & would lift 900K Americans out of poverty, according to a recent analysis by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

Pelosi says Dems 'will persist' on $15 minimum wage

Gold futures gained for a 3rd session, aided by a weaker $ & slightly lower bond yields.  Commodity dealers also reacted to the ECB's announcement that it would accelerate its bond purchases under its pandemic emergency purchase program (PEPP) while leaving the “envelope” for total purchases unchanged at €1.85T.  The ECB also left its policy interest rates unchanged.  The move came ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on next week & nudged sovereign debt yields lower, helping bullion gain further traction.  Meanwhile, Pres Biden signed the Dems' $1.9T stimulus bill into law.  The House approved the bill yesterday following the Senate’s OK last week.  Gold's trade today followed a report on consumer inflation suggesting that inflation wasn't as hot as some investors had feared, which helped to ease bond yields & weaken the $.  Apr gold picked about 1 to settle at $1722 an ounce, well off its intraday high at $1738.  The trade for bullion follows a 0.3% gain in the previous session. 

Gold prices log 3rd straight rise as bond yields and dollar slip

US job openings rose to 6.92M in Jan from a revised 6.75M in the previous month, the Labor Dept reported.  This is up from pandemic low of under 5M.  The forecast expected job openings to rise to 6.7M from the initial estimate last month of 6.6M.  Job openings were higher in education, services & recreation.  Total hiring fell to 5.3M in Jan from 5.4M in the prior month.  The quits rate, an important measure of worker confidence, slipped to 2.3% in Jan from 2.4% in the prior month.  Workers typically quit their jobs when they are confident they can get a better one.  The Labor Dept's report on underlying employment trends is based on its monthly Job Openings & Labor Turnover survey (JOLTS).  Fed officials are starting to pay close attention to the report to help them gauge the health of the labor market as the pandemic wanes.  There was positive data last week about the labor market, with the economy adding 379K jobs in Feb.  The JOLTS data is reported with a one-month lag.  Fed chair Jerome Powell has said that there are still 9.5M fewer Americans working than at the start of the COVID-19 outbreak one year ago.

Job openings rise in January as labor market strengthens

Oil futures extended gains after OPEC boosted its outlook for demand growth in 2021.  The previous session's gains came after US gov data showed a sharp rise in crude inventories offset by a further draw in gasoline supplies as a result of last month's Texas freeze.  In its monthly report, OPEC said it sees demand growth of 5.89M barrels a day this year, compared with a previous estimate of 5.79M barrels a day, bringing total world demand to an average to 96.27M barrels a day.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Apr rose $1.48 (2.3%) to $65.92 a barrel.  May Brent crude, the global benchmark, was up $1.69 (2.5%) at $69.59 a barrel.  Crude is building on gains scored in a see-saw trading session yesterday after the Energy Information Administration said US crude inventories rose by 13.8M barrels last week.  That followed a hefty 21.6M-barrel climb the week before as domestic refinery activity continues to recover from mid-Feb winter storms in Texas.

Oil ends sharply higher as gasoline futures hit 2 1/2-year high

After a dreary start in 2021 for tech stocks, they bounced back this week.  However NAZ is still 700 (5%) below from its recent record high.  Dow continues setting new records over 32K, although it finished 200 below its highs today with selling in the last hour.  The  first 2 articles above indicate that harmony in DC remains far away.

 Dow Jones Industrials








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