Monday, May 3, 2021

Markets edge higher although Nasdaq retreats

Dow went up 238 (off session highs), advancers over decliners better than 2-1 & NAZ pulled back 67.  The MLP index added 1+ to the 176s & the REIT index was off 1 to the 431s.  Junk bond funds rose & Treasuries were purchased.  Oil continued in the 64s & gold advanced 24 to 1791 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Some Dem lawmakers reiterated their demand that Pres Biden's tax & spending plans include a full repeal of the state & local tax deduction limit, potentially snarling the $4T proposals that are designed to redistribute Ts & dramatically expand the gov-funded social safety net.  Many centrist Dems from high-tax states such as New York, New Jersey & California have demanded that one of Biden's proposals – the $2.3T American Jobs Plan & the $1.9T American Families Plan – include a full repeal of the $10K SALT deduction cap.   "We love the president's plan to do things big and bold and build back better and make the country better than it's ever been before," Rep Tom Suozzi said.  "But no SALT, no deal."  That sentiment was reiterated by a Rep who said during the same interview that he would not support the $4T in proposed spending unless it restored the full tax deduction.  "Know there's a lot of negotiation to go on between now and the end of this bill," Gottheimer added.

Dems renew demand for tax repeal, threaten Biden's spending proposals

Florida Gov Ron DeSantis signed an exec order that immediately suspends all outstanding local Covid-19 emergency orders & related public health restrictions.  “The fact is, we are no longer in a state of emergency,” DeSantis said.  He acknowledged that Florida was still not done with its fight against the coronavirus but reiterated the nation's decline in Covid-19 cases & deaths.  “I think that’s the evidence-based thing to do,” DeSantis said, adding that asking vaccinated individuals to continue to wear masks would undermine confidence in the coronavirus vaccines.  Private businesses can still require masks & enforce social distancing & other protective measures.  DeSantis signed a bill that codifies the exec order into law, effective Jul 1.  The exec order, he said, was designed to “bridge the gap” until then.  The measure, which effectively ends all local pandemic-related restrictions, also bans vaccine passports.  Florida has reported the third-most Covid-19 cases in the US at more than 2.2M since the beginning of the pandemic & the 4th-highest death toll at more than 35K fatalities, according to Johns Hopkins University.  Average new cases there, however, have fallen by more than 13% over the last week, dropping to 4885.  Last week, the Biden administration announced a relaxation of federal public health guidance on wearing masks outdoors.  The Centers for Disease Control & Prevention recommends that fully vaccinated people can exercise & attend small gatherings outside without wearing a face mask.  The agency still recommends that fully vaccinated people wear a mask outdoors when in crowded areas.

Florida Gov DeSantis suspends Covid restrictions: ‘We are no longer in a state of emergency’

Gold futures climbed to mark their first gain in 5 sessions, as weakness in the $ & subdued yields for gov bonds helped to revive some buying in bullion after last week's drop.  Gold for Jun rose $24 (1.4%) to settle at $1791 an ounce after touching an intraday day of $1798.  The settlement was the highest for a most-active contract since Apr 21.  Some market participants attributed the gains for gold on the session to a hunt for bargains after last week's skid.  Prices for gold gained more ground following data from the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index.  Last week, most-active gold futures fell 0.6% for the week, but saw a monthly rise of about 3%—the first monthly climb of the year.

Gold marks first gain in 5 sessions amid subdued dollar, bond yields

About 2 in 5 American adults are now fully vaccinated for Covid-19, Centers for Disease Control & Prevention data shows, as the rate of new coronavirus infections continues to decline.  The US is averaging 2.4M reported vaccinations per day over the past week, down from a high point of 3.4M daily shots on April 13.  The rate of new infections is also declining.  The country is reporting an average of 49K cases per day, according to Johns Hopkins University, down from more than 70K just a few weeks ago.  About 2.1M vaccines were reported given Sun, bringing the 7-day average to 2.4M per day.  Nearly 45% of Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine & 32% are fully vaccinated.  Of those aged 18 ^d older, 56% are at least partially vaccinated & 40% are fully vaccinated.  “We’re not going to get everyone vaccinated,” Dr Scott Gottlieb said.  “If we can get two-thirds of the population vaccinated or a little bit better than that, that’s going to be a pretty good level of protection,” he added.  The rate of new infections has fallen to the lowest level in months, according to Johns Hopkins data.  Over the weekend, the US 7-day average of daily new cases dropped below 50K for the first time since Oct.  Elsewhere, Covid outbreaks are reaching new heights.  India accounts for 1 in every 3 new coronavirus cases globally, according to the World Health Organization, with nearly 7M cases reported in Apr.  The US is reporting an average of 683 Covid deaths per day.

2 in 5 American adults fully vaccinated as daily average of new Covid cases falls below 50,000

Oil futures finished higher, buoyed by signs of a brighter global demand outlook, even as India, the world's 3rd-largest oil consumer, continues to suffer from record daily COVID-19 cases.  While the US continues to lead the world in cases & deaths by wide margins, with 32.4M cases & 577K deaths, India is 2nd by cases at 19.9M after recording 368K new cases today & 3417 deaths.  Over the weekend, India counted more than 400K news cases in a single day to set a fresh global record.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Jun rose 91¢ (1.4%) to settle at $64.49 a barrel.  Jul Brent, crude, the global benchmark, added 80¢ (1.2%) at $67.56 a barrel.  White House officials yesterday denied Iranian state media reports that the US had reached a deal to end economic sanctions & that substantial negotiations loomed ahead.  The US also immediately denied a report by Iranian state-run television that deals had been reached for the Islamic Republic to release US & British prisoners in exchange for Tehran receiving Bs of $s.

Oil ends higher on signs of a brighter global demand outlook

The spending bills in Congress are going to need more work to get passed.  While the virus numbers in the US are looking better, they continue to be considerably above zero where everybody wants them to be.  Other countries such as Japan & much of South America are also suffering.  The Dow finished at the low end of today's trading range.  Tech shares were sold, dragging NAZ lower.  Gold is back in the rise,  a worry for the bulls.

Dow Jones Industrials








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