Friday, May 14, 2021

Markets surge but indices post weekly declines

Dow jumped 360 to close near session highs, advancers over decliners better than 4-1 & NAZ shot up 304.  The MLP index added 3+ to the 187s & the REIT index advanced 5+ to 425.  Junk bond funds rose along with stocks & Treasures were in strong demand.  Oil was up 1+ to the 65s & gold gained 18 to 1842 (more on both below)

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Despite Disney's (DIS), a Dow stock, Q2 revenue & streaming service subscriber count coming in below expectations, CEO Bbob Chapek says the entertainment giant has shown "encouraging signs" of a COVID-19 recovery as its theme parks have reopened and production on its films & television series continues to ramp up.  Overall revenue of $15.6B was down 13% compared to $18B a year ago.  However, net income was $912M, up 95% compared to $468M a year ago.  Excluding certain items, EPS came in at 79¢ compared to 60¢ a year ago.  Streaming service reached 103M subscribers, below the estimate of 109M.  To compound the shortfall, revenue per paid subscriber fell 29% to $3.99, which was attributed to the launch of Disney+ Hotstar, a collaboration between DIS & Star India's Hotstar streaming service.  CFO Christine McCarthy said that excluding Hotstar, the average revenue per paid Disney+ subscriber would have been $5.61 in the qtr.  While its direct-to-consumer streaming platforms lost $290M in the qtr, McCarthy said that Disney+ remains on track to be profitable & reach 230-260M subscribers by the end of 2024.  McCarthy says that the company's full-year guidance has not been "reaffirmed or changed at this point."  "We're still going through our long-term planning cycle. So we're not making any changes now," she added.  The stock fell 4.61.
If you would like to learn more about DIS, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/DIS?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Disney misses on parks revenue, streaming subscribers but sees strong growth ahead

Shoppers & diners will likely see few — if any — immediate changes to businesses’ policies about social distancing & mask-wearing when they head to the grocery store or out to eat, despite new public health recommendations from the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC).  “On balance, what will probably happen is nothing,” said Joel Bines, global co-leader of the retail practice at consulting firm AlixPartners.  “Most retailers are going to opt to continue to do what they’ve been doing.”  The CDC issued updated guidance yesterday, saying that fully vaccinated people don't need to wear a mask or stay 6 feet apart in most settings.  It marked an inflection point in the Covid pandemic, clearing the way for some degree of normalcy at outdoor & indoor gatherings.  The decision comes as nearly 59% of all US adults have had at least one dose of a vaccine, as of yesterday.  Yet for major retailers, the calculus is different.  Many said they would maintain their pandemic precautions & continue to monitor developments in the weeks & months ahead.  Some said in company statements that they were still reviewing the guidance.  Others stressed the importance of safety, especially as some customers & employees have not gotten a Covid vaccination & children under age 12 are not eligible for one.

Shoppers and diners: Don’t expect masking rules to change overnight

Gold posted back-to-back gains for the session & week, settling at their highest price since Feb.  Hotter-than-expected US inflation data Wed contributed to a weekly rise in bond yields & some strength in the $, pushing prices for gold yesterday to their lowest intraday price in a week.  Gold has been torn between the prospect of higher inflation, with evidence of pricing pressures building in consumer & producer-price data, but the chance of the Fed being forced to lift interest rates to cool the economy has checked bullion's moves somewhat   However, data today showed US retail sales growth for Apr was flat, compared to forecasts for a rise of 0.8% & following a gain of 10.7% in Mar, which had been triggered by $1400 stimulus checks paid to Americans.  Jun gold rose $14 (0.8%) to settle at $1838 an ounce, following a tiny gain yesterday.  Mon's settlement was the highest for a most-active contract since Feb 10.  Earlier in the week, gold touched its lowest intraday level since May 6 before punching higher.  For the week, prices for gold, based on the most-active contract, climbed by 0.4%.  The University of Michigan's 1-year US inflation expectations came in at 4.6% up from 3.4%, while the longer-term measure rose to 3.1% from 2.7% previously.

Gold up a second week to settle at highest since February

Oil futures rose Fri to settle higher for the week, as a key US fuel pipeline reopened after being shut down for days in response to a ransomware attack.  Colonial Pipeline on Wed moved to fully reopen its 5500 mile pipeline, which provides around 45% of fuel needs to the East Coast.  The closure of the pipeline late last week triggered fuel hoarding & resulted in the closure of a swath of gas stations across the Southeast.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Jun delivery rose $1.55 (2.4%) to settle at $65.37 a barrel & Jul Brent crude, the global benchmark, gained $1.66 (2.5%) to finish at $68.71 a barrel.  With the gains on Fri, oil futures erased their losses for the week, with WTI climbing 0.7% higher & Brent up 0.6% from last Fri's settlement.  That marked the 3rd straight weekly rise for both benchmarks.  Fears of an extended pipeline shutdown that could have significantly curtailed refinery activity had weighed on nearby oil futures relative to later contract.  Colonial late yesterday said it had restarted its entire pipeline & commenced product delivery to all markets it serves.  Colonial added that it would move as much gasoline, diesel & jet fuel as is safely possible & would continue to do so until markets return to normal.

Oil prices tally weekly gain as Colonial Pipeline drama subsides

This week the Dow sank 1200 in the first 3 days & that was followed by an advance of 800 in the last 2 days.  That was a tough time for the timid.  More wild trading is expected next week.

Dow Jones Industrials








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