Friday, August 6, 2021

Markets ease higher and the Dow ekes out a new record

Dow went up 144, advancers over decliners a modest 4-3 & NAZ was off 59.  The MLP index remained in the 174s & the REIT index fluctuated in the 466s.  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries saw heavy selling, bringing higher yields.  Oil dropped 1 to 68 & gold tumbled 43 to 1765 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Pres Biden touted the bipartisan infrastructure deal & job growth in a speech following the release of a robust Jul jobs report, while also renewing the push for Americans to get vaccinated against COVID-19.  The pres delivered remarks from the White House, where he praised the Senate for moving forward on the bipartisan infrastructure bill, which is likely to pass this weekend.  Biden said the bill would "end years of gridlock in Washington and create millions of good-paying jobs," as well as "put America on a new path to win the race for the economy in the 21st century."  "It will enable us to not only build back, but build back better before the economic crisis hit," the pres said, before thanking the Rep senators who worked on the bill with him.  "This bill makes key investments to put people to work all across the country… and it’s going to put Americans to work in good-paying union jobs building and repairing our roads, bridges, ports, airports," Biden said, adding that he expects the Senate to move toward building the "framework" for the rest of his Build Back Better agenda after the infrastructure bill passes.  The pres also claimed the bill will give "tax cuts to the middle class" by "investing in childcare and home care for seniors," among other investments, without raising taxes "by even one cent" on Americans’ whose annual income is less than $400K.  Biden added that "90%" of the jobs created by the package "will not require a college degree" & be a "blue-collar blueprint."

Biden touts massive infrastructure bill, job growth while pushing for vaccines

Nearly 3 dozen of the nation's most influential business groups—representing retailers, chip makers, farmers & others—are calling on the Biden administration to restart negotiations with China & cut tariffs on imports, saying they are a drag on the US economy.  The tariffs on electronics, apparel & other Chinese goods, which are paid by US importers, were kept in place in part to ensure that China fulfills its obligations under its 2020 Phase One trade pact with the US.  In a letter to US Trade Representative Katherine Tai & Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, the business groups contend that Beijing had met "important benchmarks and commitments" in the agreement, including opening markets to US financial institutions & reducing some regulatory barriers to US agricultural exports to China.  "A worker-centered trade agenda should account for the costs that U.S. and Chinese tariffs impose on Americans here and at home and remove tariffs that harm U.S. interests," the letter said, referring to the administration's policy to make worker interests a priority.  The broadside by the trade groups represents increasing frustration by a swath of American corporations at the pace of the administration's review of China trade & economic policy.  The administration has given few hints about whether it intends to try to enforce the Phase One trade accord negotiated by the Trump administration or seek to extend it.  Chinese officials have told US business executives that they won't move on trade issues until the administration makes clear that it accepts the Phase One deal.  The review is expected to continue until some time in the fall, administration officials have said.  The administration also hasn’t signaled whether it intends to keep tariffs on Chinese goods, which now amount to levies on about ½ of what the US imports from China.

Business groups call on Biden to restart trade talks with China

Gold futures ended a downbeat week with the sharpest daily fall since mid Jun, marking the sharpest weekly drop in 2 months, after the US monthly jobs report for Jul came in better than expected, delivering a further jolt to the $ & bond yields which undercut demand for precious metals.  Dec gold traded $45.80 (2.5%) lower, to settle at $1763 an ounce, after declining 0.3% yesterday, marking its sharpest daily fall since Jun 17 & its first settlement below $1800 since Jul 28.  For the week, gold fell 3%, marking its steepest weekly slump since the period ended Jun 18 when it fell 5.9%.  The employment report for Jul showed that the US economy added 943K jobs.  The forecast was for 845K jobs last month.  Meanwhile, the unemployment rate dropped to 5.4%, below the estimate of 5.7% & falling below the 5.9% rate for Jun.  The drop in prices for gold may be linked to the belief that the jobs report may give the Federal Reserve more ammunition to raise interest rates & taper its $120M in monthly asset purchases sooner than later.  Gold also has been under pressure as equity markets have been trading near record highs, despite concerns about the spread of the highly transmissible delta variant of COVID-19 in many countries.

Gold futures log steepest daily and weekly decline in nearly two months as bond yields, dollar rise

Crude-oil futures were headed lower, with the commodity staging a turnaround from earlier gains after a better-than-expected report on S employment helped to deliver a fillip to the $, weighing on assets priced in the currency.  The rise in the $ & persistent hand-wringing around the spread of COVID-19’s delta variant & its potential impact on energy demand, has produced a nagging headwind for crude.  West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for Sep finished 54¢ (0.8%) lower at $68.55 a barrel, after the US benchmark grade climbed 1.4% yesterday.  For the week, WTI was off 7.5%, while Brent was off nearly 6%.  A decline of that magnitude would represent US oil's sharpest weekly drop since the period ended Oct 2.  The slump in crude prices over the week has come as the delta variant has prompted renewed mobility restrictions.  Both Japan & China have reinstated lockdown measures in some regions to limit the spread of the highly transmissible variant.  Oct Brent crude, the global benchmark, was 31¢ (0.5%) lower at $70.96 a barrel, with an intraday high at $72.43 a barrel.  The contract climbied 1.3% in the previous session.  Brent's weekly decline, down nearly 6%, would be its steepest since Mar 19 when it dropped 6.8%.  Today's monthly jobs report showed US employers added 943K jobs, outstripping estimates for 845K & marking the fastest pace of job creation in nearly a year, while the unemployment rate fell to 5.4% from 5.9% in the previous month, lower than the 5.7% rate expected.  The numbers alleviated some concerns about the impact the delta variant of the coronavirus was having on the economy, but the $ rallied on the news as bond yields rose.  Earlier gains in crude had been supported by emerging conflict in the Middle East, which could ultimately impinge upon supplies if it worsens. Israel $ Hezbollah, backed by Iran in Lebanon, have been exchanging rocket fire for 3 days.  Today's exchanges came a day after Israel's defense minister warned his country is prepared to strike Iran following a fatal drone strike on a oil tanker at sea that his country blamed on Tehran.

U.S. oil futures end lower, book sharpest weekly slump in 9 months as U.S. dollar rallies

The stock market greeted the good news on the job front with less enthusiasm than might be expected.  The dark cloud of the Fed reducing its bond buying program which can lead to higher interest rates haunts investors.  Investors have become addicted to low interest rates, but they were not meant to last forever.  History shows that rates on the 10 year Treasury have generally been around 3-4%, far above the current 1 ¼% rate.  For the week, the Dow rose 250.  Not bad considering the virus keeps up its fight & higher interest rates continue to be a nagging problems.

Dow Jones Industrials








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