Tuesday, August 17, 2021

Markets fall after retail sales decline and earnings are mixed

Dow dropped 310. decliners over advancers 5-2 & NAZ fell 108.  The MLP index bounced back 1+ to the 178s & the REIT index was off 1 to the 464s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries saw a little selling.  Oil climbed higher in the 67s & gold was of 2 at 1787.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

CL=FCrude Oil66.96

 -0.33-0.5%













GC=FGold   1,794.30
+4.50+0.3%










 

 




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US consumer spending slowed more than expected last month amid a resurgence in COVID-19 cases.  Retail sales, a measure of spending at restaurants, stores & online, in Jul fell 1.1% to $618B, according to the Commerce Dept.  The forecast called for a decrease of 0.3%.  But the reading was 15.8% above year-ago levels.  Jun's reading was revised higher by 0.1 percentage point to 0.7%.  The number of new coronavirus cases last month reached the highest level since the end of Apr as the delta variant spread across the country.  Case counts continued to increase thru the middle of Aug.  Sales at clothing & accessory stores climbed 2.8% from Jun & 43.4% year over year.  Food services & drinking places saw sales increase 3% last month & 38.4% year over year.  Meanwhile, sales at motor vehicle & parts dealers & furniture stores continued to slide as the industries are still dealing with supply-chain dislocations & higher prices.  Sales at auto dealers fell 4.3% in Jul as furniture sales dipped 6.1%.  Retail sales excluding autos were down 0.4% compared with the increase of 0.1% that was anticipated. 

Retail sales fall more than expected as coronavirus cases surge again

Home Depot (HD), a Dow stock,  missed estimates for US same-store sales for the first time in 7 qtrs, as the pandemic-driven surge in demand for do-it-yourself home-improvement products waned.  Improvement chains had a blockbuster 2020 as revenue & profit surged from stuck-at-home Americans splurging on paint, tools & gardening equipment to upgrade their living spaces thru DIY projects.  The steady rollout of COVID-19 vaccines, however, prompted more Americans to return to outdoor activities & abandon some pandemic-induced shopping habits.  US same-store sales climbed 3.4% in Q2 - the smallest increase in 2 years, while expections were for an increase of 4.9%.  Overall net sales rose 8.1% to $41.1B, beating estimates of $40.8B.  EPS was $4.53, beating the estimates of $4.44.  The stock tumbled 18.36 (8%).
If you would like to learn more about HD, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/HD?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Home Depot's US sales slow as DIY consumer demand wanes

The price of lumber has fallen sharply in the last few months, but apparently that has not been enough to take the pressure off homebuilders.  Sentiment among single-family homebuilders dropped 5 points to 75 in Aug on the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).  Anything above 50 is considered positive, but that is the lowest reading since Jul 2020.  The index stood at 78 last Aug.  Of the 3 components, current sales conditions fell 5 points to 81 & traffic of prospective buyers also fell 5 points to 60.  Sales expectations in the next 6 months was unchanged at 81.  Builders are contending with continued rising costs for materials as well as for skilled labor.  That is pushing the price of newly built homes ever higher & clearly affecting demand.  More than 56% of new & existing homes sold between the beginning of Apr & end of Jun were affordable to families earning the US median income of $80K.  This is down sharply from the 63.1% of homes sold in Q1-2021 & the lowest affordability level since the beginning of the NAHB’s revised series in the first quarter of 2012.  “Some prospective buyers are experiencing sticker shock due to higher construction costs,” said NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke.  “Policymakers need to find long-term solutions to supply-chain issues.”  The price of lumber has come down dramatically since its peak earlier this year.  Lumber fell 4.9% yesterday to settle at $471, its lowest in 13 months.  Lumber is down 72.5% from its intraday peak of $1711 in May.  “While lumber prices are showing improvement, the price and availability of other building materials remain a challenge. These materials include flooring, drywall, appliances and windows,” said NAHB’s chief economist Robert Dietz.  “While the demographics and interest for home buying remain solid, higher costs and material access issues have resulted in lower levels of home building and even put a hold on some new home sales,” Dietz added, noting that his expectation is that production bottlenecks should ease over the coming months & the market should return to more normal conditions.

Homebuilder sentiment falls to lowest level in a year as buyers face sticker shock

Disappointing news is taking an overbought stock market lower.  The news at HD brought on heavy selling & may represent a signal of what to expect in coming retail earnings reports.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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