Thursday, August 19, 2021

Markets mixed after investors reviewed Fed minutes

Dow fell 66, decliners over advancers almost 3-1 & NAZ went up 15.  The MLP index declined 3+ to the 169s & the REIT index rose 2+ to the 463s.  Junk bond funds slid lower & Treasuries continued to be sold.  Oil lost 1+ to the 64s & gold added 2 to 1782 (more on both below).

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The Biden administration reportedly froze Afghan gov reserves held in US banks on Sun, blocking the Taliban from accessing Bs of $s shortly after the group seized the capital city of Kabul, leaving the US-backed gov in collapse.  Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen & officials in the Treasury Dept' s Office of Foreign Assets Control made the decision.  The State Dept was also involved in discussions over the weekend, with White House personnel are monitoring the developments.  "Any Central Bank assets the Afghan government have in the United States will not be made available to the Taliban," an administration official said.  The move is the first in what is expected to be a number of critical decisions facing the Biden administration as they grapple with the Taliban's return to power.  Afghanistan, already one of the poorest countries in the world, is heavily dependent on American aid.  Asked Tues what actions the US intends to take to ensure the safety of women in Afghanistan, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said "there are obviously issues related to sanctions."  He declined to elaborate further.  "I want to be able to have our team communicate directly to the Taliban both what the costs and disincentives are for certain types of action and what our expectations are," Sullivan added.  In a speech on Mon, Pres Biden appeared to commit to continuing to give aid to Afghanistan, saying: "We will continue to support the Afghan people. We will lead with our diplomacy, our international influence and our humanitarian aid."  The Afghan central bank had roughly $9.4B in reserve assets as of Apr, according to the IMF – about 1/3 of the nation's yearly economic output.  But most of that money is not held in Afghanistan, Bs sit in the US.  About 80% of Afghanistan' budget is funded by the US & other intl donors, John Sopko, the special inspector general for Afghanistan reconstruction, said in the spring.

Biden admin freezes Afghan reserves held in US banks to limit Taliban cash

CDC Director Dr Rochelle Walensky said that Americans may not need yearly Covid-19 booster shots, suggesting that a 3rd shot may sufficiently strengthen the long-term protection of Pfizer (PFE) or Moderna's (MRNA) vaccines.  These remarks come a day after she other top US health officials said they plan to start offering boosters to all eligible Americans 8 months after their 2nd vaccine shots.  The effectiveness of mRNA vaccines lessens over time, particularly for anyone at high risk for dangerous coronavirus complications or for those who were immunized early in the vaccine rollout,  Walensky & several of the country's top medical officials said in a statement yesterday.  “This virus has been humbling, so I don’t want to say never, but we are not necessarily anticipating that you will need this annually,” Walensky said today.  “It does look like after this third dose, you get a really robust response, and so we will continue to follow the science both on the vaccine side but also on the virus side.”  In a separate interview, she cited other vaccines, like Hepatitis B, that require 2 primer shots, followed by a booster.  She said scientists think the Covid vaccine may similarly provide long-term protection after 3 doses.  “We know we need a boost now and we will continue to follow the science, but I don’t think it’s a given that we will be doing this continuously,” Walensky added.

CDC director says we might not need annual Covid boosters after third shot

Florida & Texas are opening free monoclonal antibody centers to treat a surge in Covid-19 patients in both states, hoping early intervention will help keep people out of the hospitals & save more lives — even as the governors of both states fight local officials on mask & vaccine mandates.  Texas is setting up 9 antibody infusion centers, Gov Greg Abbott announced Fri, while Florida launched its 5th site yesterday.  With the delta variant surging, more than 46% of Texas' intensive care beds & over ½ of Florida’s ICU capacity were filled with coronavirus patients as of today, compared with 27% nationwide, according to the Dept of Health & Human Services.  “What puts you in the hospital is the inflammation. People get inflammation in their lungs,”  Dr Arturo Casadevall, chair of Molecular Microbiology & Immunology at Johns Hopkins University's Bloomberg School of Public Health, said.  “So what these antibodies do is, if you give them to a patient early, they will neutralize the virus.”  Abbott is getting first-hand experience with the treatment.  His office announced Tues that he's receiving Regeneron’s monoclonal antibody treatment after he tested positive for Covid, despite being fully vaccinated.  Though monoclonal antibodies, such as GlaxoSmithKline's treatments, are one of the few proven methods to fight the virus & reduce hospitalizations, they've rarely been used throughout the pandemic because they are cumbersome to administer.  The monoclonal antibody treatments need to be injected directly into the vein via an IV infusion, which takes time & dedicated medical staff, often using the same equipment reserved for chemotherapy patients.

Florida and Texas open Covid antibody treatment centers as delta surge overwhelms hospitals

Gold futures finished lower, suffering a 3rd straight session decline, with strength in the $ & some upbeat economic data helping to dull haven demand for the precious metal.  Investors also reacted to minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee yesterday that showed that monetary policy makers were on track to begin unwinding parts of their easy-money programs later this year.  The Fed's Jul 27-28 meeting, underscored recent reports that point to a growing desire to roll back monthly buying of $120B in Treasuries & mortgage-backed securities, which may be viewed as a negative for bullion, but that was also weighing on bullish sentiment in equities, contributing to losses in the US stock market & providing support for gold.  Dec fell $1 to settle at $1783 an ounce, after ending lower yesterday, ahead of the release of the Fed minutes.  Gold prices initially moved up, then headed lower, after weekly US jobless claims data showed a drop of 29K to 348K, a 17-month low, but Philadelphia's Federal Reserve reported that its business activity index fell to 19.4 in Aug from 21.9 in Jul.  Losses deepened after a reading on the leading economic index revealed a 0.9% jump in Jul.  Meanwhile, concerns about the spread of the highly transmissible delta variant of COVID-19 was also putting some pressure on the US stock market as a study based on real-world data, showed diminished effectiveness from coronavirus vaccines to the delta variant.  Gold also declined on the back of strength in the $, up 0.4%, as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar Index.  A stronger $ can weigh on appetite for assets priced in the currency like gold.

Gold down a third session as some upbeat U.S. economic data dull haven demand for the metal

Oil futures ended lower, with US prices down a 6th straight session -- marking the longest losing streak for the front-month contracts since a 6-session decline ended on Feb 28, 2020.  The number of COVID-19 cases in the US continues to rise, feeding expectations for a slowdown in energy demand & prompting US benchmark prices to settle at their lowest since May.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Sep fell $1.77 (2.7%) to settle at $63.69 a barrel ahead of the contract's expiration at tomorrow's settlement. 

Oil futures end lower, with U.S. prices down a sixth straight session

Investors continued to review the Fed minutes, especially comments about tapering bond purchases in the coming months.  Afghanistan is important & everybody is watching that chaotic situation because it will impact the global economy.

Dow Jones Industrials








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