Tuesday, August 31, 2021

Markets were mixed but higher for the month of August

Dow pulled back 39, advancers modestly ahead of decliners & NAZ was off 6.  The MLP index slid to the 176s & the REIT index went up 1+ to the 472s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were weak.  Oil fell to the 68s ahead of tomorrow's OPEC+ meeting on production cuts & gold went up 5 to 1817 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Consumer confidence this month fell to the lowest level since Feb as concerns over a resurgence in COVID-19 cases & inflation resulted in a less favorable view of the economy.  Confidence plunged by 11.3 points to 113.8 in Aug, according to The Conference Board.  The forecast had expected a reading of 124.  The Present Situation Index, which is based on consumers' assessment of current business conditions & the labor market, fell to 147.3 from 157.2 last month.  The Expectations Index, which measures consumers' short-term outlook for income, business & the job market, declined to 91.4 from 103.8.  "Spending intentions for homes, autos, and major appliances all cooled somewhat," said Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at The Conference Board.  The percentage of consumers who said business conditions are "good" declined to 19.9% from 24.6%.  At the same time, 54.6% of consumers said jobs are "plentiful," down from 55.2% in Jul.  Americans were also less optimistic about the short-term outlooks for business conditions, jobs & financial prospects.  "While the resurgence of COVID-19 and inflation concerns have dampened confidence, it is too soon to conclude this decline will result in consumers significantly curtailing their spending in the months ahead," Franco said.

Consumer confidence tumbles to lowest level since February

Nearly 1M Covid-19 vaccine booster shots have already been administered in the US since health officials authorized administering extra shots of Pfizer (PFE) or Moderna's (MRNA) vaccines to people with weakened immune systems on Aug 12, according to data compiled by the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC).  About 955K fully vaccinated people have received an additional dose of a Covid vaccine, CDC data shows.  That number includes those who had previously received two doses of PFE or MRNA's vaccines or one dose of Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat,, the agency said.  It's unclear if all of those people were considered immunocompromised.  In approving the booster shots in people with weak immune systems — which includes cancer, HIV patients & organ transplant patients — CDC officials cited several small studies that showed they didn't produce an adequate immune response after receiving 2 doses of PFE or MRNA's vaccines.  Food & Drug Administration (FDA) & CDC officials didn’t approve booster doses of JNJ’s vaccine earlier this month, saying they were waiting on more data.  Some Americans were already finding ways to get additional doses of the Covid vaccines on their own prior to the formal approval.  Some went as far as receiving the extra shots from different companies – a practice known as “mixing and matching.”  The CDC & FDA are reviewing whether to administer booster shots to the general population.  Pres Biden said the US plans to widely distribute Covid booster shots in the week of Sep 20, pending clearance from FDA & CDC scientists.

CDC: Nearly 1 million Covid booster shots have already been administered in U.S.

Delta Air Lines (DAL) plans to hire another 1500 flight attendants ahead of summer 2022, becoming the latest carrier to add jobs after travel demand rebounded from pandemic lows.  The airline was already in the process of filling 1500 flight attendant jobs with candidates whose hiring was paused at the start of the pandemic in 2020.  Airlines have been racing to fill positions from ramp workers to flight attendants to customer service agents, as well as training pilots, this summer during a surge in travel.  The recovery in demand came faster than airline execs said they expected.  Airline CEOs urged thousands of employees to take unpaid or partially paid leaves of absence or early retirement packages to cut labor costs in the depths of the pandemic.  The stock rose 54¢.
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Delta Air Lines doubles flight attendant hiring target to 3,000

Nike (NKE), a Dow stock, is giving its office employees a week of vacation time to rest, the sportswear company announced.  "Our senior leaders are all sending a clear message: Take the time to unwind, destress and spend time with your loved ones. Do not work," Matt Marrazzo, senior manager of global marketing science said, adding that NKE HQ is "powering down for a full week" beginning Mon.  NKE is the latest company to show its prioritizing wellness and mental health for its employees during the pandemic.  The pandemic has sparked burnout among employees globally with more people working remotely & staying logged on for longer hours. Indeed, 70% of remote workers reported in a Robert Half survey from Nov working on weekends, while 45% said thy work more hours than before the pandemic.  The stock fell 3.22.
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Nike gives week off to employees: ‘Do not work’

Gold futures ended higher, with prices to tallying a slight gain for the month, as the metal found support following data showing a drop in US consumer confidence to the lowest level in 6 months.  US consumer confidence slid to 113.8 this month from a revised 125.1 in Jul, the Conference Board said.  Separately, data showed that the Chicago PMI dropped to 66.8 in Aug from 73.4.  Dec gold rose $5 to settle at $1818 an ounce after trading as low as $1803.  For the month, prices based on the most-active contract, finished up by less than $1 from the Jul 30 settlement of $1817.  The ICE U.S. Dollar Index a gauge of the currency against a ½-dozen major currencies, fell to as low as 92.403 today, but was trading steady at 92.678, on track for a monthly rise of almost 0.6%.  The $ & financial markets broadly, are now keyed in to monetary policy, with some weakness in greenback coming on the back of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, which was seen as positively supporting continued buying of precious metals.  Powell offered no clear timetable this year for tapering of monetary policies that have been accommodative to financial markets, which has helped to knock the $ lower.  A weaker $ can make dollar-pegged assets such as gold more appealing to overseas buyers.

Gold ends higher with U.S. consumer confidence at a 6-month low

Oil futures settled lower, with traders watching recovery efforts for Gulf Coast refinery operations in the wake of Hurricane Ida.  Traders were also looking ahead to a meeting tomorrow of OPEC & its allies (OPEC+).  West Texas Intermediate crude for Oct, the US benchmark, fell 71¢ (1%) to settle at $68.50 a barrel.  For the month, prices for the front-month contract ended 7.4% lower — the first monthly loss since Mar. Global benchmark Oct Brent crude which expired at the end of the trading session, lost 42¢ (0.6%) at $72.99 a barrel, for a monthly loss of 4.4%.  The most actively traded Nov contract fell 60¢ (0.8%) to $71.63 a barrel.

Oil settles lower as traders watch Hurricane Ida recovery efforts, ahead of the OPEC+ meeting

There was some buying in the AM, bringing the Dow into the black.  But sellers returned after the drab report on consumer confidence for Aug.  For the month, the Dow rose 425 but it was choppy as shown in the chart below.  NAZ rose almost 600 to a record over 15K

Dow Jones Industrials








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