Monday, August 16, 2021

Marlets slip lower on fears of slowing global growth

Dow went up 110 (session high), decliners over advancers about 2-1 & NAZ remained lower, down 31.  The MLP index fell 1+ to the 177s & the REIT index was flattish in the 464s.  Junk bond funds slid lower & Treasuries continued in demand.  Oil fell 1 to the 67s & gold gained 11 to 1789 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Pfizer (PFE) & BioNTech (BNTX) have submitted early stage clinical trial data to the Food & Drug Administration (FDA) as part of their US application seeking authorization of a Covid vaccine booster for everyone 16 & older — not just people with weak immune systems.  In a phase one trial, a booster dose of the vaccine generated “significantly higher neutralizing antibodies” against the original coronavirus strain as well as the beta & delta variants, the companies said.  Participants in the trial received a 3rd shot of the 2-dose vaccine about 8-9 months after receiving their 2nd shot, they said.  “The data we’ve seen to date suggest a third dose of our vaccine elicits antibody levels that significantly exceed those seen after the two-dose primary schedule,” PFE CEO Albert Bourla said.  “We are pleased to submit these data to the FDA as we continue working together to address the evolving challenges of this pandemic.”  The companies said late-stage trial results evaluating the 3rd dose are expected shortly & will also be submitted to the FDA & other regulatory authorities worldwide. PFE stock rose 48¢ but BNTX dropped 34.22 (9%).
If you would like to learn more about PFE, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/PFE?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

If you would like to learn more about BNTX, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/BNTX?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Pfizer submits data to FDA for authorization of Covid vaccine booster shot for general population

Pres Biden is slated to address the nation from the White House today after the Taliban seized the presidential palace in Afghanistan's capital Kabul over the weekend, a dramatic development that marks the apparent end to a 20-year US nation-building project launched after the Sep 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.  Biden’s remark will be his first since the Taliban ousted the Afghan national gov on Sun.  ]The pres's decision to address the nation comes amid mounting criticism of his administration's handling of the situation & calls for him to break his silence & he returned to the White House from Camp David today.  A White House spokesman told reporters the pres was briefed by his national security team on the ongoing efforts to safely evacuate American citizens & Afghan nationals who assisted US & coalition forces.  Despite being vastly outnumbered by the Afghan military, which has long been assisted by US & NATO coalition forces, the Taliban carried out a succession of shocking battlefield gains in recent weeks.  As the Taliban moved closer to the capital over the weekend, Afghan Pres Ashraf Ghani fled the country & Western nations rushed to evacuate embassies amid a deteriorating security situation.

Biden will speak about Afghanistan’s rapid collapse in White House address

The ECB is likely to announce long-awaited plans to reduce its pandemic-related asset purchases in the next qtr, according to a recent poll of economists, most of whom expected the program to be wrapped up by the end of Mar.  With the euro zone economy growing at its fastest pace on record and inflation set to rise further, pressure on the ECB to taper its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) is building, as it is on other major central banks.  While new variants of the coronavirus remain a threat to the world economy, most euro area countries have lowered the public health risks & the likelihood of further lockdowns with successful vaccination drives.  The latest poll, taken Aug 9-13, was more specific than the previous one, asking for the timing of the announcement of a taper as well as when it would start.  This time, 12 of 29 economists predicted a Sep announcement & 15 picked next qtr, with 10 saying Dec & 2 said in H1 of next year.  The ECB will no doubt carefully consider the timing of its decision & communication around it given the US Federal Reserve is facing a similar policy dilemma & possible negative reaction in markets if it moves too quickly.

ECB seen laying out plans in Q4 to end emergency asset purchases: poll

Gold futures climbed for a 2nd straight session, marking their highest settlement in more than a week, as disappointing US economic data provided support for the haven metal.  Prices for gold moved higher after data from the NY state region, the Empire State factory index, showed a drop to 18.3 in Aug from 43 in the prior month.  US benchmark stock indexes were under pressure following weaker-than-forecast Chinese economic data & the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan.  Dec gold rose $11 (0.7%) to settle at $1789 an ounce after touching a high at $1791.  Prices for the most-active contract logged the highest finish since Aug 5.  The gains for the precious metal came despite reports that the Federal Reserve is moving toward a concrete plan to unwind some aspects of COVID-era easy-money policies.  The takeover of Afghanistan stoked some buying in safe-haven assets, sending Treasury prices up, pulling down yields the 10-year Treas, 1.261% to 1.256%, from 1.297% on Fri.  Bearish factors for gold, keeping prices for precious metal in check, included data that highlighted an economic slowdown brewing in China, one of the biggest buyers of commodities including gold, amid the spread of the delta variant of COVID-19.  On top of that, Fed officials were seen moving toward an agreement on a timetable that could result in the central bank beginning to scale back its monthly purchases of $120B in Treasuries & mortgage-backed securities in about 3 months, if the economic recovery continues.  Moves to withdraw accommodation are seen as potentially bearish for precious metals because it could push yields for Treasuries, which compete with gold for haven demand, higher.  Meanwhile, the growing number of delta variant cases remains a key concern.

Gold posts back-to-back gains to highest settlement in more than week

Oil futures fell, with the commodity under pressure after a round of weak China data underscored the potential damage to demand from the spread of the delta variant of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19.  West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for Sep fell $1.15 (1.7%) to settle at $67.29 a barrel.  Oct Brent crude, the global benchmark, declined $1.08 (1.5%) finishing at $69.51 a barrel.  Both WTI & Brent crude prices marked their lowest settlements since Aug. 9.  Jul data out of China showed retail sales & industrial production disappointed, along with a Jan-Jul measure of fixed-asset investment.  Meanwhile, the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul & the fall of the Afghanistan gov was seen contributing to a weaker tone in financial markets but did little to add a risk premium to crude prices.

Oil prices settle at 1-week low as China data feed worries over a demand slowdown

Buyers returned in the PM, bringing a sense of calm to the markets.  However, all is not well with the chaos in Afghanistan.  Nervous buyers are buying gold & Treasuries & that condition may not change until Afghanistan gets settled.

Dow Jones Industrials








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