Thursday, October 6, 2011

Markets rise on hopes for European bailouts

Dow gained 53, advancers ahead of decliners 3-1 & NAZ was up 23.  The Financial Index started lower but is back in the black, up 2 to the 162s (its high for the month).

The MLP index was up another 2 to the 338s & the REIT rose 1+ to the 201s.  Junk bond funds were slightly higher while Treasuries were weaker.  The yield on the 10 year Treasury is heading back up to 2%.  Oil rose for a 2nd day as shrinking US crude supplies, better-than-expected economic data & signs Europe can control its debt crisis allayed concern that fuel consumption will suffer.  Gold is doing little after its big drop last month. 

ALERIAN MLP Index (^AMZ)





DJ REIT INDEXDJR (^DJR)



Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.000%

U.S. 2-year

0.263%

U.S. 10-year

1.950%

CLX11.NYM....Crude Oil Nov 11...80.43 ....Up 0.75  (0.9%)

GCV11.CMX....Gold Oct 11......1,641.90 ...Up 1.60  (0.1%)



Get the latest daily market update below:





Initial Jobless Claims in U.S. Rose 6,000 Last Week

Photo:    Bloomberg

Appllications for unemployment benefits rose slightly last week, as the job market remains weak, increasing 6K to 401K according to the Labor Dept.  The modest gain comes after applications plummeted 33K in the prior week, partly reflecting technical difficulties with the seasonal adjustment process.  The 4-week average fell for the 2nd straight week to 414K, its lowest level in a month.  However applications are higher than they would be in a healthy economy.  The slumping economy has led many employers to pull back on hiring, employers are in hiring freeze.  Applications have averaged 415K this year, down from 459K last year. Layoffs have slowed but remain relatively high & there has been little improvement in recent months.



J.C. Penney Cuts Profit Forecast

Photo:   Bloomberg

JC Penney revenue at stores open at least a year slipped 0.6% in Sep, analysts were expecting an increase. JCP also lowered its Q3 earnings guidance, citing its softer-than-expected sales results for the first 2 months of the period.  Revenue for the 5 weeks ended Oct 1 fell 3.6% to $1.43B.  Results were weaker than expected, but there was strength in children's clothing & women's accessories. The Southeast was the best performing region.  Quarter-to-date revenue at stores open at least a year declined 1.2%, with revenue down 4% to $2.8B.  YTD, revenue at stores open at least a year gained 1.6% & revenue fell 1.3% to $10.65B.  JCP expects Q3 EPS of 10-15¢ (before restructuring charges).  Including restructuring charges of about 22¢, the chain anticipates a loss of 7-12¢.  Its prior forecast was for EPS of 15-20¢ (including restructuring charges of 5¢).  Expectations for its quarterly same-store revenue were lowered to be about flat relative to the prior-year period.  In Aug it predicted a 2-3% increase.  The stock was up a dime.

J.C. Penney Cuts Profit Forecast on Sales Decline

J.C. Penney Company, Inc. Holding Company (JCP)


stock chart


Target, Limited Brands September Sales

Photo:   Bloomberg

Target, a Dividend Aristocrat, said that sales of groceries, beauty products & clothing helped fuel a 5.3% Sep rise in revenue at stores open at least a year.  Results mirrored other retailer reports.  Results were "somewhat" above TGT expectations, said CEO Gregg Steinhafel.  "We experienced strong sales results throughout the month and across a broad array of merchandise categories," he said.  Revenue during the 5 weeks ended Oct 1 rose 6.5% to $5.92B from $5.56B last year.  TGT predicts Oct revenue in stores open at least one year will rise in the low- to mid-single digit percentage range.  TGT rose 2.18.

Target, Limited Sales Beat Analysts’ Estimates

Target Corporation (TGT)


stock chart


Consumers shopped in Sep, but only when they thought they were getting a deal.  The International Council of Shopping Centers said revenue rose 5.5% in Sep as several retailers had strong gains. Consumers were snapping up big discounts & affordable luxuries.  Revenue gains at stores open at least a year come as merchants look for a sign of how consumers will spend during the winter holiday season (roughly Nov-Dec). Although many are reporting strong increases in Sep, concerns linger that shoppers who are fretting about high unemployment, a weak housing market & a turbulent stock market, will continue to look for the kind of bargains that could eat away at profits.

Retailers report solid gains for September AP


The retail sales data was favorable, although there are worries about the important holiday season which is about to begin.  Dow is barely up for the week as the steep decline on Mon has been recovered.  Tomorrow is the jobs report which is not expected to be pretty.  A word about Steve Jobs.  I never bought an Apple product (using an Acer netbook presently) but about 1 billion others have bought Apple products.  Steve was a visionary & became a billionaire producing popular products for people around the world.  He built a company with a market value that is tied with Exxon Mobil (XOM), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, for first place in the world.  XOM is descended from Standard Oil of NJ & Standard Oil of NY (Socony Mobil), the 2 largest oil companies from the Standard Oil trust, founded by John D Rockefeller,  The world will miss Steve.

Dow Industrials (INDU)


stock chart




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Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Markets gain, closing at session highs

Dow shot up 131 following the enormous late day rally yesterday, advancers over decliners 5-2 & NAZ gained 55.  Bank stocks were bid up in the late day advance, bringing the Financial Index into the black.  But the chart remains dismal.

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value159.98One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change    1.90    (1.2%)

MLPs had a big day (although the index finished 2½ below the high) following the enormous late day rally yesterday, but the REIT index fell back 2 to 200.  Junk bond funds found bargain hunters after recent selling.  Treasuries dropped, on optimism European leaders are stepping up efforts to resolve the region’s debt crisis which sapped demand for Treasuries.  Oil  extended gains after an unexpected decline in inventories.  Gold rose, still looking for footing to mount another advance.

Alerian MLP Index


Value336.78One-Year Chart for Alerian MLP Index (AMZ:IND)
Change    5.68     (1.7%)

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.000%

U.S. 2-year

0.255%

U.S. 10-year

1.903%

CLX11.NYM...Crude Oil Nov 11...79.67 ...Up 4.00  (5.3%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]





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ADP Estimates U.S. Companies Added 91,000 Jobs in Sept

Photo:   Bloomberg

US companies added 91K jobs in Sep, according to ADP Employer Services, ahead of 75K forecasted.  The increase follows a revised 89K gain in the prior month.  Fri, the big jobs report will come from the Labor Dept.  Over the previous 6 reports, ADP initial figures were closest to the Labor Dept first estimate of private payrolls in Mar, when it understated the gain in jobs by 29K. The estimate was least accurate in Jun, when it overestimated the increase in employment by 100K.  Labor market conditions remain tepid & disappointing,

ADP Estimates U.S. Companies Added 91,000 Jobs in September


Merkel Signals More Greek Investor Losses

Chancellor Angela Merkel
Photo:   Bloomberg

German Chancellor Merkel said that Europe’s rescue fund will only be used as a last resort to save banks & that investors may have to take deeper losses as part of a Greek rescue.  This is realism after yesterday's late day surge in stock prices.  “Time is running out” to establish if recapitalization is necessary, Merkel said.  Troubled banks need to first seek capital on their own & national govs will help if that’s not possible, she added.  “If a country cannot do it using its own resources and the stability of the euro as a whole is put at risk because the country has difficulties, then there’s the possibility of using the EFSF,” the European Financial Stability Facility, she said.  Using the rescue fund is “always tied to a certain conditionality.”  Signals that European politicians may step up efforts to aid banks & push investors to accept bigger losses as part of a Greek bailout reflect intl pressure to end the debt crisis & domestic opposition to expanding rescues.  Merkel said that “if needed, there will be an adjustment” in investors’ share of a €159B ($212B) 2nd aid package for Greece, pending a report by intl auditors on Greece’s finances due next month.  She said that she supports recapitalizing European banks “if there is a joint assessment that the banks aren’t adequately capitalized” & finance officials develop “uniform criteria.” Germany is ready to discuss possible bank aid at this month’s EU summit, she said.  European financial reform remains a "work in progress."

Merkel Signals More Greek Investor Losses


Microsoft, a Dow stock, has struck more than 40 deals with TV & entertainment companies, making it possible for owners of its Xbox gaming console who are also paying cable subscribers to watch live television through the devices.  The greatly expanded range of TV content on the gaming device effectively makes the Xbox a cable TV set-top box, but stops short of speculation that MSFT would encourage Xbox owners to drop their pay-TV subscriptions. The new Xbox deals announced is part of a bid by MSFT to make its gaming console a major media hub in the living room & took years to sort out, said Ross Honey from MSFT. The stocks rose 55¢ but has remained near $25 for years.

Microsoft to Offer TV on Xbox Via Verizon, Comcast

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)


stock chart


Dow is up an amazing 500 from the lows prior to yesterday's close.  Not sure that changing financial conditions in Europe deserve that kind of gain, but optimism has gotten the better of the stock market.  The chart below shows it has had a choppy time in the last month & is closer to the lower end of its range.  The bulls will point to the rebound of the Dow off the lows on Tues which were at a 20% decline from its 2011 highs (one signal of a bear market).  I'm still bothered by a cloudy situation in Europe & a US economy which is only sputtering.  The Fri jobs report will give more data on the recovery & expectations are for only about 60K jobs being added.  This economy needs at least 200K to make a dent in unemployment.  Then there's the super committee in congress which is supposed to come up with $1½T savings & their report is due next month, or else (mandatory budget cuts).

Dow Industrials (INDU)


stock chart



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Markets edge higher, extending yesterday's gains

Stocks began the day climbing, taking the Dow above its previous yearly closing low in Aug.  Dow is up 41, advancers ahead of decliners 2-1 & NAZ was up 25.  Banks slipped, taking the Financial Index down 1 to 157 after yesterday's spectacular gain.  The MLP index rose 1+ to the 332s, still at a weak level, while the REIT index fell 5 to 197.  Junk bond funds are recovering after a bad day yesterday & Treasuries are selling off on strength in the stock market.  Oil extended its gains after the Energy Dept reported an unexpected decline in inventories.  Gold continues to mark time in the low 1600s.

ALERIAN MLP Index (^AMZ)



DJ REIT INDEXDJR (^DJR)




Get the latest market update below:


Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.000%

U.S. 2-year

0.255%

U.S. 10-year

1.884%

CLX11.NYM...Crude Oil Nov 11...77.84 ...Up 2.17  (2.9%)

GCV11.CMX...Gold Oct 11......1,616.20 ...Up 1.50  (0.1%)


Service Industries in U.S. Expanded at Slower Pace

Photo:   Bloomberg

Service firms (employing 90% of the US work force) expanded at a slightly slower pace in Sep than in Aug.  Meager pay increases & higher costs for food & gas have forced Americans to spend carefully. The decline in spending is hurting the service industry, which covers a range of businesses from hotels & restaurants to financial firms & retailers.  The Institute for Supply Management said that its service sector index dipped to 53 from 53.3 in Aug (a reading above 50 indicates expansion).  The index reached a 5-year high of 59.7 in Feb but has weakened consistently since.  In Jul, it fell to its lowest point level in 17 months.  Ben Bernanke said that the economic recovery "is close to faltering."  He said the economy is growing more slowly than the Federal Reserve had expected and that the biggest factor depressing consumer confidence is poor job growth.


Greeks Strike Against Papandreou Job Cuts

Photo:   Bloomberg

Greek civil servants walked off the job, paralyzing the gov & public transport to protest ever-deeper austerity measures & seemingly ineffectual financial policies.  At least 16K protesters converged in central Athens, & another 10K gathered in the northern city of Thessaloniki, to protest cuts.  The vast majority of demonstrators were peaceful, but a few dozen threw stones at riot police.  Air traffic controllers joined the 24-hour strike, grounding all flights to & from Greek airports.  State hospitals were running on emergency staff, while lawyers, teachers & tax officers also didn't work.  Public transport employees were holding work stoppages.  State television & radio pulled news programs off the air.  Civil servants are protesting plans to suspend about 30K staff on partial pay, part of new cutbacks that come on top of salary & pension cuts.  There also have been waves of tax hikes over the past year and a half.  The Greek rescue plan is far from over!

Greeks Strike Against Job Cuts as Aid Delayed


In Sep US employers announced the most job cuts in more than 2 years, led by planned reductions at Bank of America (BAC), a Dow stock, & in the military.  Announced layoffs tripled, the largest increase since Jan 2009, to 115K last month from 37K in Sep 2010, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.  Cuts in gov employment, led by the Army’s 5-year troop reduction plan, & at BAC accounted for almost 70% of the announcements.  While the bulk of firings are not “directly related” to economic weakness, they “could definitely be a sign of more cuts to come,” John A. Challenger, CEO said. “Bank of America is not the only bank still struggling in the wake of the housing collapse, and the military cutbacks are probably just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to federal spending cuts.”  Today’s report also showed that employers announced plans in Sep to hire 76K workers, up from 15K in the prior month, but down from 123K in Sep 2010.  Retailers led the gains, planning to add 70K positions ahead of the holidays. The job picture remains bleak.

Announced Job Cuts in U.S. More Than Triple From Year Ago, Challenger Says


Stocks are looking for direction again.  It's hard not to think Dow's 350 rise in the last hour yesterday was suspicious.  Greece is expected to get the next installment of aid, but its problems are far from over when there are constant protests over austerity measures.  Also banking problems have not gone away, especially for US banks.  If the bulls can take the markets higher today, that will be a good sign.  For the moment, that is iffy.

Dow Industrials (INDU)


stock chart



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Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Oversold market rallies in the last hour

Stocks had been lower all day, but shot up at day's end.  Dow exploded to finish up 153 (but still just below the Aug 8 closing low), advancers ahead of decliners 4-3 & NAZ gained 68 (helped by Apple paring earlier losses).  Financials led the way higher with a solid gain for the Financial Index.

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value158.08One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change    6.23    (4.1%)

The MLP index had an unusually wild day, bouncing nicely off the 316 low made in May to finish near break even, while the REIT index rose 8+ to the 202s.  Junk bond funds fell 5% closing near the lows, don't see that too often, while Treasuries were little changed, helped by the flight to safety.  Oil continues weak on worries about an economic downturn.   Gold has been hard to figure out.  It should have benefited from being the ultimate safe haven investment, but it looks like overbought has been a greater negative influence.

Alerian MLP Index

Value331.10One-Year Chart for Alerian MLP Index (AMZ:IND)
Change   -1.05    (-0.3%)


Get the latest market update below:



Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

-0.005%

U.S. 2-year

0.247%

U.S. 10-year

1.781%

CLX11.NYM...Crude Oil Nov 11...75.72 ...Down 1.89  (2.4%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Apple Debuts IPhone 4S With Faster Chip

Photo:   Bloomberg

Apple introduced a new iPhone, but may have left some fans wishing for more than an updated version of last year's smartphone.  CEO Tim Cook hosted his first major product launch with aplomb, standing in for ailing co-founder Steve Jobs.  The new iPhone is faster, souped-up & comes with voice recognition & a better camera as expected, but did little to lift the bar for smartphones.  Investors & AAPL fans, who were looking to be blown away by some amazing new surprise, sold the stock.  This comes at a critical juncture as Android phones by Samsung & other competitors close in on the iPhone lead.  Android phones dominate the US market 3 years after Google introduced the software.  AAPL must sustain the popularity of iPhone 4, which is more than a year old (selling more 20M units in its Q3).  The company also claims inroads into a corp market dominated by Research in Motion (RIMM) with more than 90% of Fortune 500 companies testing or using its iPhones & iPads.  AAPL was down only 2 (18 above its lows of the day). 

Apple Speeds Up iPhone, Improves Camera, To Counter Android

Apple Inc. (AAPL)


stock chart




Photo:   Yahoo

Ben Bernanke said the economic recovery "is close to faltering" & the central bank is prepared to take further steps to support it.  He said the economy is growing more slowly than the Federal Reserve (FED) had expected.  The biggest factor depressing consumer confidence is poor job growth.  "We need to make sure that the recovery continues and doesn't drop back and that the unemployment rate continues to fall downward," Bernanke said.  Markets had risen after he had previously hinted at a QE3, then markets fell back.  Bernanke offered his grim assessment after the economy barely grew in H1 & it created no net jobs in Aug.  Consumer confidence fell this summer to the lowest point since the recession.  Europe's debt crisis has also intensified.  After their Sep meeting, FED policymakers warned of significant downside risks to the economic outlook.  As a result, the FED voted to shift $400B of its portfolio from short- to longer-term Treasurys to try to drive down long-term rates.  The economic picture remains glum.

Bernanke says economic recovery close to faltering AP


The VIX, volatility index, has gone thru a lot this year.  It soared in May on increased fears as the market sold off.  Since then it has had a choppy time of it, remaining near 40 (far above its previous levels in the teens).  Today the volatile VIX fell 4+ to just under 41.

Volatility Index (^VIX)


The decline for the popular averages brought them to a 20% decline from their recent highs, one signal of a bear market.  Buyers returned with a vengeance in the last hour on reports that European officials were working on a plan to prop up the region's struggling banks.  At its lows, Dow had dropped 800 in 4 days.  It was entitled to a rally, bargain hunters are still around.  No matter what comes of the rumors, fundamental banking problems have not vanished.

Dow Industrials (INDU)


stock chart


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